Nice writeup on $TMDX (see below) -- we're now more than halfway through July and $TMDX flights are still up +65% YoY for the month... if they stay this strong into Q2 earnings... assuming Q2 is a beat on the top line... I'd expect $TMDX to raise full year revenue guidance.
NFA.
DYOR.
Just updated our $TMDX flight tracker... 399 flights through 10.65 days which is 37.5 flights per day... up +11.8% MoM and +73.6% YoY
I have no idea if flights remain this strong through July or through Q3 but this is clearly not the typical seasonal slowdown we're used to seeing... last year July was the 2nd slowest month for flights... this year July is on a record pace... even if dry runs are up slightly there's obviously something more positive happening... excited for Q2 earnings and a business update from management on OCS trials, CHOPS, OCS Kidney and Europe expansion.
Management continues to say 10k OCS cases by 2028, 20k OCS cases by 2030 and 30k OCS cases by 2032.
Those targets don't include CHOPS which I think could add another 10-15% to case volumes although management hasn't given any guidance for CHOPS other than to say the original 2028/2030/2032 case targets do not include CHOPS.
If we add 10-15% to the 2030 number it gets us to 22.5k cases (midpoint)... which means $TMDX would need to grow OCS/CHOPS cases at a 34% CAGR from 2025 through 2030.
If $TMDX gets to 22.5k cases in 2030, I think revenues are somewhere in the $1.9B to $2.0B range with net income margins in the 21-23% range.
Throw a 28-32x multiple on that (EPS would be growing 35% or better)... add back the cash and $TMDX would likely be trading at $320-360 per share... which is 300-400% higher from here over the next ~4 years.
Clearly we need to see if $TMDX can continue to execute at a high level but the upside looks massive if they can.
If you're looking for some healthcare / medtech exposure then I think $TMDX is very compelling at current prices however it's very possible we still have a couple more bumpy quarters ahead of us with depressed margins from the current investment cycle.
I think management has done a poor job this year communicating their spending plans which caught everyone (including the analysts) off guard when Q1 EPS was down significantly YoY but the near term margin compression doesn't change the longer term opportunity... the selloff this year is creating a nice window to accumulate shares at deeply discounted prices. IMO, this stock should not be trading at less than 3x CY2027 revs despite a few quarters of depressed profit margins from bigger investments into R&D, trials and geographic expansion.
I think $TMDX has a shot at $1B revenues in CY2027, if that happens it means revenues would need to grow at 26-27% this year and 30-31% next year... I think it's doable with all the new products/catalysts on the horizon which should accelerate growth in the coming quarters.
If $TMDX does re-accelerate growth and is on track for $950M to $1B revenues in 2027 and $1.2B to $1.3B revenues in 2028 then we probably see the stock re-rate to 5-6x NTM revs which would put the stock back at the ATHs ($177+) within the next 18 months.
Nice commentary on $TMDX — so many exciting catalysts on the horizon that could/should re-accelerate YoY growth back above 30% which is definitely not priced in with $TMDX in the $70s.
The stock is on sale because of short term margin compression… because management decided it was more important to invest for the next decade than worry about the next few quarterly EPS numbers.
Management is making the right decisions for patients and long term shareholders. I believe that 100%. I just wish they had been more transparent the past couple quarters with their spending levels. Stock would not have gotten hammered if we had known the hit that net income margins was going to take and how long the margin compression would last.
$TMDX has a very loyal and passionate shareholder base… we have a vested interest in the success of this company… they are one of the few companies that can save thousands of people per year and we want to support that mission. Over the next decade $TMDX will likely save 100,000+ people that would have died waiting for a transplant.
$TMDX needs to fire their external IR team and hire a Chief Communications Officer who can oversee investor relations (bring this in-house), marketing and brand awareness/narrative. As the company launches new products and expands outside the US, it’s important that Waleed is freed up to focus on growing/running the business while someone else handles the ongoing communication with investors and analysts.
This is my beautiful Daughter who was diagnosed w/ #BrainCancer at 11 & left Earth at 13. 💔
Ashley was incredibly brave, strong, NEVER gave up & somehow, stayed positive throughout her battle.
We’d be so grateful for a follow to keep our Ashley’s story alive.
💜 𝒜𝓈𝒽𝓁𝑒𝓎 𝑀𝒶𝓇𝒾𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑜𝓇𝑒 💜
"The vet looked at me and said, 'It might be time to think about saying goodbye.'" Max stopped eating four days ago. Stopped getting up. I'd already started preparing myself. Then Buddy did something I will never forget. He climbed up on that exam table — something he's NEVER allowed to do — and he wouldn't stop pressing his face against Max's. The vet tech tried to gently move him away. Buddy wouldn't budge. And then, for the first time in four days — Max lifted his head. The vet just stood there. Didn't say a word. We're not out of the woods. The vet wants to run more tests tomorrow. But tonight, Max ate three bites of food. Tonight, Max is still here. I don't know what tomorrow holds. But I know I watched a Labrador refuse to let his best friend give up. If you believe dogs fight for each other the way they fight for us — drop a ❤️ for Max and Buddy tonight. He needs all the strength he can get.
Good morning & happy Monday! A stranger frees a tangled foal, and mama horse says thank you the only way she can. Proof that kindness needs no translation. Be someone’s rescue today, even in small ways. The world runs on quiet heroes. Go be one! 🐴💛🔊
Después del terremoto en Venezuela, una familia buscaba a su bebé entre los escombros. El papá entre lágrimas lo llamaba a los gritos Y EL BEBÉ SALIÓ GATEANDO.
Esto es un milagro