Peter Optimisto - Analytics

Top analysis team working out of lots of different locations 📈🗄📄📋📎📁 not financial advice 👎🚫🙅🤷😟🙀 Interests include: We like natural gas 🆖🛢🪵🌎🛣📞

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

In a tragic twist, todays report only cut 9 bcf vs the 5y Avg and 1 bcf vs 2023!

The narrative spin by bears is stunning, but it will have huge consequences. I will explain why in this thread…

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@drojek1000 I’ve only been right once today tho so that doesn’t rly work?

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

As promised, the price of natural gas closed up today!

The real price recovery starts sometime next week - and it’ll be backstopped by BULLISH FUNDAMENTALS!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

Tomorrow and next week, the natural gas price is going to be up and all of you doubters will disappear, never to be heard from again!

I’ve seen price moves like this before and rest assured this is a trap!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@NoncePutin

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

Tomorrow and next week, the natural gas price is going to be up and all of you doubters will disappear, never to be heard from again!

I’ve seen price moves like this before and rest assured this is a trap!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@drojek1000 It’s down because Danny Dumb Hedge Fund missed out on yesterday’s rally and needs to liquidate shorts at a price that isn’t too high!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

This storage report wasn’t rly that bad- it’s a further preview of what we’ll see with shoulder season!

Although April-May storage reports will be looser than they should be, we’re starting from a shockingly tight baseline!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

And I think a lot of bears are expecting the price will simply fall back to wherever they want it to be!

But that’s not a realistic goal!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@MattBro17643363 @mdatbts Whoops I didn’t see this thread all the way at the time, but if they held on like me then it would have worked out

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

Moments ago, I once again stopped shorting natural gas only to buy it all!

Many of you look at a price going down and people getting fearful and say: “Oh no, time to sell!” But I don’t think that way- I think the bears have gone too far!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

After weeks of downward momentum, I am pleased to state the outlook is a little more bullish now!

I’ll post more about fundamentals (as opposed to trading) in the next few weeks - and spoiler alert, they are bullish!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

It seems like all of natural gas twitter has vanished into thin air!

I guess that’s what going short in hope of $1.50 and then eating a 7% loss does to you!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@StockGenieUSA making moneys 😒

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

Natural gas isn’t completely immune from the stock market and it has been weak as stocks fall!

The good news is that demand is almost completely immune from a recession!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

I didn’t really appreciate all the doubt that this kind of position got yesterday!

It’s a lot easier now to see who was in the right!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

Moments ago, I once again stopped shorting natural gas only to buy it all!

Many of you look at a price going down and people getting fearful and say: “Oh no, time to sell!” But I don’t think that way- I think the bears have gone too far!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@AxEn45248848 Ppl are paying way too much attention to the news cycle bc they’re scared!

At the end of the day I’m not entirely sure any of this matters to natural gas- but I understand the sources of concern!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@StockGenieUSA 1. “You look at previous spikes- I would never 😎”
2. “Did you ever think to look at the spike in the year 2000???”

Sorry but it just doesn’t seem to cut it for me!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@BullyBear81 No one buys natural gas at the grocery store and consumers have been paying $8/mmbtu for the last three years!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@AgWxMan1 My bet is long #natgas

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

@MainTejaHoon_ I’m going to be long for at least a few weeks so I can’t say exactly- but that $4 range looks pretty close!

If you want to day trade you can prob get away with selling now and buying back in one or two days!

[Avina Merkur @AvinaMerkur]

@PeterOptimisto Peter Bodacious, of course did we go too, come! we help you along. there is a cliff just ahead! the view will be grandious!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

And of course I can do a whole essay of fundamental analysis, but this is what I say to you!

Demand is no longer as weak as some claim, and production is starting to wobble a bit!

Although the deficit has shrunk, it’ll come back within weeks with a vengeance!

[Peter Optimisto - Analytics @PeterOptimisto]

Natural Gas #NatGas #NaturalGas

The issue with the “bear case” is that the fundamentals honestly don’t look that bad now!

I expect at least a few days of chop - but we are so near the lows that I think it’s best to buy!