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JPM: "Oracle's debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change" (Cembalest, Sept 24)
Also JPM: "Hi Oracle, here is $38 Billion in debt"
The average cost of a family health insurance plan is now 27 grand PLUS a 2k deductible but I'm supposed to care about some early retirees premiums going up
Self-driving taxi company Waymo is now doing 876,000 rides per month in California, a 6x increase over the past year and 69x increase since August 2023.
Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Today's −5.7% move is rare; a 4.46-sigma move.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days).
Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold isn’t low-vol.
FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Don't panic now.
Everyone talks about AI slop.
No one talks about PE (private equity) slop.
- restaurants that lost their soul
- medical practices that feel like assembly lines
- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula
The algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did.
Why are rates continuing to drop if the market believes a trade war and tariffs are coming?
The Fed is way behind the 2 year bond yield.
Something just doesn’t add up.
The bond market always sniffs out whatever is coming next before the market.