PewdsZke

📊 Market insights & stock picks 📰 Daily pre-market news 🆓 Free VIP community 📈 Outperform the market ✉️ DM "VIP" for 3-month free trial

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

GOOGL Capex Surges 8% – Semis Are Next in Line 🚀

GOOGL just dropped their Q2 earnings – and here’s the key takeaway:

Capex is up 8%. No cuts. No pullback.

That’s a massive green light for AI hardware stocks – especially memory and semiconductors.

But here’s the catch – the recent semi rebound hasn’t been backed by strong volume. That tells me buyers are still cautious. Too much overhead supply.

So don’t expect a straight line up.
Expect a choppy, grinding rebound instead.
If the other big tech names follow GOOGL’s lead and hold the line on AI spending, semis will rip much harder – ideally on heavy volume.

Last night, memory stocks bounced off the lows. Tonight, they faded the highs.
That’s classic range-bound action – perfect for nimble traders, dangerous for chasers.

Best play right now?
Buy the dip. Sell the rip.
If you get caught on a dip and it drops further – just wait. Don’t panic sell.
We’re in a bottoming phase. It’s painful. It’s messy. But the upside is coming.

Even if we get a second leg down, as long as you’re not chasing highs and adding on weakness, I see more opportunity than risk from here.
Bottom line:
GOOGL just confirmed the AI spending story is alive. The semi bounce is real – just not linear yet. Stay patient. Stay disciplined.

#GOOGL #Semiconductors #AI #Memory #Stocks #EarningsSeason #Capex #Investing #Tech

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

Wall Street's three major indices faced collective pressure as the market shifted to a wait-and-see mode following a multi-day rally; investor attention was almost entirely focused on the upcoming post-market earnings reports from Google parent company Alphabet and Tesla. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 6.06 points (0.01%) to close at 52,218.58, remaining essentially flat; the S&P 500 fell 0.14% to 7,498.96; and the Nasdaq Composite suffered the steepest decline, dropping 0.57% to close at 25,690.90 (the Nasdaq 100 had dipped as much as 0.8% intraday before paring losses to 0.5% by the close). The cooling of the three major indices following Tuesday's strong rebound reflects market caution ahead of a busy earnings period, rather than a signal of a trend reversal.

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

Wall Street's three major indices faced collective pressure as the market shifted to a wait-and-see mode following a multi-day rally; investor attention was almost entirely focused on the upcoming post-market earnings reports from Google parent company Alphabet and Tesla. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 6.06 points (0.01%) to close at 52,218.58, remaining essentially flat; the S&P 500 fell 0.14% to 7,498.96; and the Nasdaq Composite suffered the steepest decline, dropping 0.57% to close at 25,690.90 (the Nasdaq 100 had dipped as much as 0.8% intraday before paring losses to 0.5% by the close). The cooling of the three major indices following Tuesday's strong rebound reflects market caution ahead of a busy earnings period, rather than a signal of a trend reversal.

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@Teslaconomics Alphabet shares plunge and Tesla’s slide continues; the AI ​​bull market faces its biggest test yet.

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

https://t.co/7Ec8K1fSxE

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

https://t.co/qS7AIj2Mjl

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

Wall Street Is Still Bullish – One Analyst Sees $800!

On July 20, SpaceX hit a recent low of **$119.85** – down about 12% from its IPO price of $135.

Doesn't sound like much? Try this: from its mid-June all-time high of $225.64, the space giant has now shed a staggering 47% of its market value. A stock down nearly half – "pullback" no longer quite cuts it.

1️⃣ Three Blows That Sent SpaceX Crashing from the Clouds
Blow #1: Starship test flight derailed.

On July 16, the highly anticipated 13th Starship test flight was aborted mid-mission after multiple engines failed to ignite. For a company whose entire space narrative rests on "big rockets" and whose internet revenue depends on Starlink V3 satellites, this was a hard fundamental hit.

Blow #2: The AI compute frenzy faded – and SpaceX was at the epicenter.

Over the past two weeks, global AI hardware markets have undergone a collective deleveraging. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell into a technical bear market, while South Korea's KOSPI became a heavy casualty given its large semiconductor weight. SpaceX, carrying a valuation narrative built on "AI data centers in space," was dragged down hard by this environment.

Blow #3: The lockup expiration tsunami is approaching.

This is the real ticking time bomb. After the Q2 earnings release on August 6, the first lockup period expires – up to 910 million shares will hit the market. If certain price conditions are met, another 450 million shares could be unlocked early, expanding the floating supply fourfold overnight.

S3 Partners' data is eye-popping: approximately 30% of the float is already sold short – up 10 percentage points in just 10 days. Short sellers have accumulated roughly $4 billion** in paper profits, with total short bets reaching **$25 billion.

One hedge fund manager who has made $20 million shorting SpaceX put it bluntly:

"Even if SpaceX found gold on the moon, the market doesn't have enough liquidity to absorb all those unlocked shares."

Even the bond market is flashing warnings. One of SpaceX's 30-year corporate bonds has seen its yield rise from 6.7% to 7.4%, with the price dropping to 91 cents on the dollar. Credit default swap spreads have widened sharply from 110 basis points to 158 basis points.

As SLC Management's Malak put it: "Investor enthusiasm for SpaceX has cooled – both stocks and bonds are pricing in more risk."

2️⃣ But Wall Street Hasn't Surrendered – 86% Still Say Buy!
Despite the bruising selloff, 27 of 32 analysts across major firms still maintain a "Buy" rating, with an average price target implying approximately 86% upside from current levels.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale went even further – setting a 2031 price target of $800** (more on that below). That implies a valuation north of **$10.5 trillion – meaning SpaceX would need to become the size of Apple and Microsoft combined within five years.

Meanwhile, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has been buying the dip. Despite the stock's slide, ARK has accumulated over $90 million in SPCX this month alone, making SpaceX its sixth-largest holding in ARKK. Wood is sending a clear signal with real money: this is volatility, not extinction.

3️⃣ A Variable the Market Shouldn't Ignore: China's Rocket Recovery Breakthrough
Hidden within SpaceX's narrative is a structural variable that Wall Street has largely overlooked: China just completed its first-ever rocket recovery.

On July 10, the Long March 10B rocket lifted off from Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, successfully delivered its payload into orbit – and its first stage was caught by a net 300 kilometers offshore.

China has now become the second country in the world to master large-payload reusable rocket technology – but it didn't copy SpaceX's vertical-landing-leg approach. Instead, it took a completely different path:

No landing legs – replaced with a hook system

The rocket flies into a massive net that catches it mid-air

The advantages:

AdvantageImpactSaves landing-leg weightBoosts payload capacityLower precision requirementMore fault-tolerant than vertical landingNo landing-leg maintenanceEnables faster turnaround for reuse
What this means for the competitive landscape:
First, SpaceX's monopoly pricing power over low-cost launch is over. Before this, low-cost, high-frequency space launch was almost exclusively a SpaceX capability. China now has a ticket to the game. With 10+ reuses, single launch costs could drop by as much as 80%.
Second, China's commercial launch market is now activated. Reusable rockets will ease the bottleneck of "more satellites, not enough rockets," accelerating the pace of low-orbit constellation deployment and spurring growth across satellite manufacturing, space operations, and the entire commercial space value chain.
Third, the global commercial space map is being redrawn. A single successful recovery doesn't mean China has caught up to SpaceX – the latter has built a mature reuse system over years of testing. But the signal is clear: SpaceX's "uniqueness" is being broken.

On the timeline: near-term impact is limited, but the long-term threat is real. China has only completed a single "launch + recovery" test – it hasn't yet flown the same rocket multiple times. Full reuse validation is expected by the end of 2026. Until then, SpaceX will maintain its dominant position. But capital markets will begin pricing in a "monopoly premium" adjustment ahead of time.

4️⃣ Three Key Catalysts Ahead

CatalystDateWhat to WatchStarship 13th test flight (re-attempt)July 23Success = confidence in Starlink V3 deployment restored; Failure = space narrative further damagedQ2 Earnings + First Lockup Expiration~August 6Starlink user growth and AI cloud revenue will determine whether early shareholders hold or dumpFloat ExpansionDecember 8Tradable shares rise to ~40% – supply pressure will persist through the second half

🧭 Bottom Line

SpaceX is at a crossroads. The Starship setback, the AI selloff, and the looming unlock wave have turned the narrative from "unstoppable" to "unstable."
But Wall Street hasn't walked away. The average target still implies huge upside, and ARK is buying with both hands.
The real question isn't whether SpaceX is a great company – it's whether investors are willing to pay a monopoly premium for a company that may not be a monopoly forever.
The next few months will tell us if this is a buying opportunity or a value trap.
#SpaceX #SPCX #Stocks #AI #Space #Investing #EarningsSeason #China #ReusableRockets

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

https://t.co/zg7nmJKXl4

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

Asia Rebounds – And Institutions Say U.S. Stocks Will Follow!

After a month of bleeding, Asia's chip stocks finally caught a breath today.

On July 21, South Korea's KOSPI index surged as much as 4.7% intraday, triggering a program-buy halt – and here's the kicker: it used to be circuit-breakers on the way down. This time, it was on the way up.

Samsung Electronics jumped over 6%, SK Hynix rallied nearly 4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.2%. China's Star 50 pulled off a massive V-shaped reversal – from -3% to +6% intraday, a nearly 14% swing.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.7%, finally snapping a four-day losing streak.

So, what sparked the bounce? Three things came together.
First, the selling was overdone. Technicals hit extreme oversold levels. South Korea's July 1–20 export data hit a record high for the period, with chip exports surging 180.6% YoY.

AI-driven semiconductor demand remains the core engine. The fundamentals didn't break – positions did. When selling dries up, even "just not going lower" can trigger a rally.

Second, stabilization measures are kicking in. South Korean regulators stepped in on leveraged ETFs and tightened loopholes. The effect isn't immediate – but the signal is clear: this has gone too far, time to step in.

Third, earnings season is here. Google and Tesla take the stage this week. Microsoft and Meta follow next week.

Can AI capex translate into real profit growth? This week's earnings are the first report card. Until the answers are in, shorts won't pile on, bulls won't panic-sell – and that's enough fuel for a bounce.

So, will U.S. AI stocks follow?
Signals are pointing that way. Nasdaq 100 futures turned positive, up 0.5% overnight. SK Hynix ADR rose nearly 5%, AMD gained over 3%, while Micron and Broadcom each climbed more than 4%.

Wall Street is starting to chime in:

JPMorgan strategists: "The recent semiconductor pullback is not the start of a long-term decline – it's a setup for the next leg higher. Q2 earnings will be the catalyst."

UBS echoed: "The aggressive momentum unwind may be nearing its end. We recommend gradually rebuilding AI and semiconductor positions."

Both firms expect the selloff to bottom before the end of July.

⚠️ But here's the catch – this bounce is NOT the same as the last two years.
The old AI rally was narrative-driven – good story = stock goes up.

The next phase is validation-driven – good earnings = stock goes up.

The SOX is down 20% from its June peak – firmly in bear market territory. To climb out of that hole, you need numbers, not stories.

📌 What to watch from here:
1Alphabet's earnings – first big test. Cloud growth, AI capex guidance, margin trends – these three numbers will set the sentiment anchor for AI stocks over the next two weeks.2SOX stabilization – Monday saw a 3%+ early rally fade to just +0.6% by the close. Overhead supply is still there. A few consecutive closes higher would make this bounce more credible.3DRAM contract pricing – SK Hynix's CEO called 2027 "the tightest supply year in memory industry history." If DRAM contract prices keep rising in Q3, this isn't a dead cat bounce for memory names.
🧭 Bottom Line
Today's Asia bounce was the first time AI hardware collectively said: "I'm not dead yet."
But whether it survives depends on one thing – earnings season.
The answer isn't in the charts. It's in the numbers Google, Microsoft, and Meta are about to deliver.

If they beat expectations consistently → the bulls win.

If capex starts eating into margins → the bears come back.

And this recovery? It's likely to be structural. Names with real earnings will bounce back. The ones without? They'll bounce – and then keep falling.

#Stocks #Semiconductors #AI #EarningsSeason #Asia #USMarkets #Investing

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

https://t.co/20aJgI48ZX

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

https://t.co/QsKnm0TQVR

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@onepiecenewsfr water is healthy

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@onepiecenewsfr wow

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@OPF_Vivi hi

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou why do i get no cookie

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou family

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou hehehe

[PewdsZke @PewdsZke]

@PortgasDRou can i have a cookie pls