Phil Haile

Look for me elsewhere

[NBER @nberpubs]

Using rich multi-level data on US House elections finds that marginal voters tend to favor Democrats. State voting policies have small but sometimes key effects and district maps net favor Republicans, from @steventberry, Christian Cox, and @PhilHaile https://t.co/gkvlr07vgT

[Josh RR Jokien @joshcarlosjosh]

“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@ProfJAParker I think the outcry is a response to the sudden abandonment of long-standing practice in an election in which one candidate has repeatedly threatened freedom of the press (among other things). It reeks of caving to those threats. If WP does so here, where else?

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@sbuhai @lewbel @NobelPrize point taken

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@matthewstoller @florianederer Which points did I ignore? I thought I was engaging with exactly the points you made.

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@matthewstoller @florianederer The paper you criticized is about recent trends in competition. Is there evidence of an increase in collusion/price fixing in recent years? And does Kwoka have recent work showing that markets have become less competitive?

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@matthewstoller @florianederer A very strong and personalized take with no actual argument. Please explain what you mean. Do they ignore or misinterpret relevant research? mis-apply economic analysis? reach conclusions that conflict with your feelings?

[S.E. Cupp @secupp]

Just stop with the “But Trump is worse so shut up” nonsense. Everyone, and I mean everyone calling for Biden to step down thinks Trump is worse. That’s WHY they want someone with a fighting chance of beating him. They are actually taking the threat of Trump MORE seriously.

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@DAcemogluMIT The risk of weakening Biden's candidacy matters only if he would have a shot at winning. Those calling for him to step down think he does not (a view about voters near the margin) and that we'd therefore be better off with a roll of the die on a new candidate.

[Nicholas A. Christakis @NAChristakis]

The University of Chicago, as usual, striking the right balance. Worth reading in full. It is exactly right.

President Alivisatos’ Note on the Encampment (April 29, 2024)

Dear Members of the University Community, Just a few hours ago, a group of students established an encampment on the Main Quad as a form of protest. This particular tactic is now in widespread use at universities across the country. At some, encampments have been forcibly removed, with police arresting students and faculty in chaotic scenes that are disturbing. At others, encampments have persisted, despite attempts to shut them down with force. In some cases, encampments have resulted in major disruptions to learning and the activities of the university community.

Free expression is the core animating value of the University of Chicago, so it is critical that we be clear about how I and my administration think about the issue of encampments, how the actions we take in response will follow directly from our principles, and specific considerations that will influence our judgments and actions.

The general principle we will abide by is to provide the greatest leeway possible for free expression, even expression of viewpoints that some find deeply offensive. We only will intervene when what might have been an exercise of free expression blocks the learning or expression of others or that substantially disrupts the functioning or safety of the University. These are our principles. They are clear.

Two recent examples illustrate how we bring these principles into real action. First, last quarter a student group secured university permission to cover a large fraction of the Main Quad with a massive Palestinian flag consisting of thousands of tiny colored flags. The exhibit was accompanied by signage exhorting passersby to “Honor the Martyrs,” and it was staffed by students at tables during certain hours. Those students could explain to passersby why they thought it important to feature this installation, why they thought that language was appropriate, and any other views occasioned by their installation. While this protest and accompanying message were offensive to many, there was no question that it was an exercise of free expression. It stood for weeks until the end of the approved time, at which point the student group removed it, making way for others to express their views in that space as they might see fit. This example should make it clear that we approach the issue with no discrimination against the viewpoints of those participating in this encampment. We adhere to viewpoint neutrality rigorously.

As a second illustrative example, in November, a group of students and faculty undertook an occupation of Rosenwald Hall, a classroom and administration building. That was a clear disruption of the learning of others and of the normal functioning of the University. After repeated warnings, the protesters were arrested and released. They are subject now to the University’s disciplinary process, which is still pending. In short, when expression becomes disruption, we act decisively to protect the learning environment of students and the functioning of the University against genuinely disruptive protesters.

There are almost an unlimited number of ways in which students or other members of the University community can protest that violate no policies of the University at all; the spectrum of ways to express a viewpoint and seek to persuade others is vast. But establishing an encampment clearly violates policies against building structures on campus without prior approval and against overnight sleeping on campus.

I believe the protesters should also consider that an encampment, with all the etymological connections of the word to military origins, is a way of using force of a kind rather than reason to persuade others. For a short period of time, however, the impact of a modest encampment does not differ so much from a conventional rally or march. Given the importance of the expressive rights of our students, we may allow an encampment to remain for a short time despite the obvious violations of policy—but those violating university policy should expect to face disciplinary consequences.

The impact of an encampment depends on the degree to which it disrupts study, scholarship, and free movement around campus. To be clear, we will not tolerate violence or harassment directed at individuals or groups. And, disruption becomes greater the longer the encampment persists. With a 24-hour presence, day after day, we must for example divert police resources away from public safety for our campus and our community.

If necessary, we will act to preserve the essential functioning of the campus against the accumulated effects of these disruptions. I ask the students who have established this encampment to instead embrace the multitude of other tools at their disposal. Seek to persuade others of your viewpoint with methods that do not violate policies or disrupt the functioning of the University and the safety of others.

Sincerely,

Paul

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Watch Professor Timothy Snyder completely destroy Marjorie Taylor Greene for lying about “Nazis in Ukraine.”

[Jonathan Roth @jondr44]

@Undercoverhist I would say the key idea of Manski's work is:

A reasonable set of assumptions may not allow us to learn about a parameter exactly, but it might allow us to obtain bounds on that parameter

This allows to make clearer the mapping between assumptions and conclusions 1/

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@ShengwuLi Congratulations Shengwu.

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@florianederer It has been a while, but at the time I enjoyed The Emperor of Ocean Park. Btw, is that first one "Incognito Steve Berry?" @steventberry

[Chris Conlon @conlon_chris]

I view the obsession with the Chicago school in antitrust circles as more of an indictment of the poor state of instruction in law schools than anything else.

How are people still hung up on stuff from like 50 years ago that mostly never got taught in Econ departments?

2/2

[Chris Conlon @conlon_chris]

A friendly reminder that the "Chicago School" of antitrust has little to do with economics and was largely associated w/ two legal scholars teaching in law schools in the 1970's. Many core ideas did not survive the game theory revolution of the 1980's.

1/2

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@paulgp @steventberry Not realistic from my experience--my board is usually much messier and inscrutable.

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

@Chanman_ECON One example: https://t.co/6IA6uTJiHh

[Phil Haile @PhilHaile]

Finally trying the azure firmament site under the same handle @philhaile. Switching equilibria is difficult when access codes trickle out.