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HR Report 4/25

.5u ea

Drake Baldwin, ATL (+490)

• The Pitcher: Baldwin gets to face Zack Wheeler, who is making his first start since August 2025 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. In his minor league rehab starts, Wheeler allowed a 1.35 HR/9. Even before the injury, Wheeler gave up a 1.14 HR/9 in 2025. 

• The Metrics (Top 15% Barrel %): Baldwin has an elite 22.9% Barrel rate and a 57% HardHit rate. He has been one of the best hitters in baseball to start the 2026 season and leads the league in barrel percentage.

• The Park: Truist Park is a hitter-friendly environment, and while the wind is only 4 MPH, Baldwin's metrics speak for themselves.

Dillon Dingler, DET (+450)

• The Pitcher (HR/9 > 1.5): He faces the Singer, who is currently getting tagged by righties. Against right-handed bats, this pitcher owns a heavily exploitable 1.86 HR/9, a 1.66 WHIP, and is surrendering a 48.7% HardHit rate.

• The Metrics (Top 15% Barrel %): Dingler is squaring the ball up with a strong 13% Barrel rate and a 43.5% HardHit rate.

• The Park: GABP is a renowned launching pad and a top-5 HR park.

Ben Rice, NYY (+310)

• The Pitcher (HR/9 > 1.5): He gets to feast on Burrows's disastrous 2.77 HR/9 split against lefties.
• The Metrics (Top 15% Barrel %): Rice is currently operating in a different stratosphere. He boasts a slate-breaking 31.8% Barrel rate alongside a 68.2% HardHit rate. He is also finding the launch angle sweet spot on 50% of his batted balls.

• The Park: Daikin Park's short right-field porch perfectly accommodates his lefty power profile.

Oswald Peraza, LAA (+875)

• The Metrics (Top 15% Barrel %): Peraza possesses a phenomenal 26.7% Barrel rate alongside a massive 46.7% HardHit rate. He is also finding the optimal launch angle sweet spot on over half of his batted balls (53.3% LA SS%).

• The Pitcher (HR/9 > 1.5): He gets to swing away against Ragans who is surrendering an overall 2.57 HR/9.

• The Environment: The 10 MPH wind and newly shortened outfield walls at Kauffman check the atmospheric and venue boxes perfectly.

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Pickolo's HR Report 4/21 ⚾

THREAD BELOW ⬇️

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Risk .5u ea

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Pickolo's HR Report 4/21 ⚾

THREAD BELOW ⬇️

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Jake Burger (TEX); Best Price: +600 at DraftKings Matchup: vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), Globe Life Field (roof closed; neutralizes wind, but a 105 RHB PF)

Mlodzinski's 2026 vs RHB has been loud: 54.2% HardHit% allowed, 29.7" VDrop on the sinker, Stuff+ FA 81; the fastball is a batting-practice beachball. 2025 vs RHB: 39.5% HardHit%, 25% Pulled-AIR% allowed, and he's 2.1 IP/G avg; Rangers get into that soft bullpen quick. Burger is the ultimate pull-happy RHB meatball-hunter: .239 Season ISO, 20% L15 Barrel%, 13% Season Barrel%, 52.2% L15 HH% vs RHP in 2026. He ambushes fastballs middle-middle, and Mlodzinski's sinker doesn't have enough sink (5.3 VB in '25, 4.1 in '26) to stay under barrels.

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TL;DR: BIG BAT HIT BALL FAR

Gunnar strong, Swing bat very fast. Hit ball hard and high. Like to hit fast ball from Righty Man.

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Gunnar Henderson (LHB) HR +410 | 0.5u

Against RHP fastballs (4-seamers, sinkers, cutters), Henderson's 2025 contact data is elite: 95.1 mph average EV, 108 mph EV90, 113.9 mph maxEV, 9.4% barrel rate, and a staggering 61.3% hard-hit rate across 900 pitches. The 2026 sample carries it forward; 93.6 EV, 12.5% Brl%, 59.4% HardHit%, and the launch angle has climbed from 7.9° last year to a much more dangerous 15.3° LA. He's lifting fastballs in the barrel zone against righties, and his overall 2026 line vs RHP (fastball/breaking/offspeed mix) shows a .383 wOBA and 156 wRC+ on a 60% HardHit% and 20.4° average LA. This is a hitter squaring up velocity from the right side and doing it in the air.

Lugo's primary category; fastballs account for ~52% of his 2026 usage (4Seam 19.2%, Sinker 20.3%, Cutter 12.4%); has quietly become a demolition zone for LHB. The 4-seamer has lost 2.6 mph off its 2022 peak (94.3 → 91.7) while holding only 15.3 inches of iVB and a -4.5 VAA, which is dead-zone shape at that velocity tier. The results show it: .382 xwOBA, .402 xwoBACON, 13.3% Brl%, 46.7% HardHit% vs LHB in 2025, with the xwoBACON climbing to .444 on the pitch in 2026. His sinker gave up a .432 xwoBACON to LHB in 2025 with a 96.1 mph average FB EV allowed; when lefties lift his sinker, it goes a long way. Stuff+ on the 4-seamer sits at 92 (FA) / 81 (SI) in 2026, and his overall Stuff+ has collapsed from 93 last year to 87 this year, with a botStf of 36 (bottom-tier). The shape data and results are aligned: this is a hittable fastball package.

The secondary weapons against lefties are arguably worse. Lugo's cutter has posted a .561 xwoBACON in 2026 (after .541 in 2025), his changeup has been catastrophic at .506 xwOBA, .506 xwoBACON, 57.1% HardHit%, 14.3% Brl%, and his newly-expanded slider (5.4% → 12.4% usage) has been annihilated by LHB for .522 xwOBA, .731 xwoBACON, 20% Brl%, and a 108.5 mph FB EV on contact. The slider's shape (-5.8 iHB, 0 iVB at 83.9 mph) is essentially a batting-practice breaking ball to a lefty with Henderson's bat speed. Across his entire non-curveball arsenal, every pitch posts an xwoBACON above .440 vs LHB in 2026. There is no safe harbor outside the curve.

Henderson's batted-ball log over his last 15 BIP vs RHP is a barrel gallery: 107.1 mph off Houser, 103.6 mph line drive off Bibee, 103.2 mph triple off Nelson, 102.7 mph (Hoffmann), 101.5 mph off Thompson, and a 96.1 mph / 34.7° home run off Logan Webb's cutter on 4/11. Eight of his last 15 tracked balls in play registered 95+ mph exit velocity, and he's posting a 40% FB% and 21.4% HR/FB in 2026 against right-handers. The air-ball engine is humming, the pull side is active (46.7% Pull% in 2026), and the bat speed on the recorded barrels is sitting 75-78 mph. He's squaring velocity with lift.

The natural counter here is Lugo's curveball; a genuine outlier pitch that has held LHB to .197 xwOBA and .287 xwoBACON in 2026 with a 3,102 RPM spin rate and 23 inches of total break (97th percentile spin). But Lugo has throttled curveball usage from 32.4% in 2025 down to 20.9% in 2026, and he's only thrown it for strikes 65.8% of the time. Henderson's 2025 breaking ball profile vs RHP (92.8 EV, 9.7% Brl%, 48.6% HardHit%) shows he doesn't get bullied by quality spin when he catches one. Even if Lugo leans on the curve, Henderson only needs to lay off it and wait for one of the 4 other pitches that grade out as borderline unplayable against lefties.

Kauffman plays to a 97 HR park factor for LHB over 2025-2026, but tonight's environment rewrites that. First pitch 72.9°F with 13.9 mph winds blowing straight out to the south, and the stadium's own impact grading flags this as ideal for batting and poor for pitching. Warm dense-to-thin-transition air with double-digit wind pushing toward the pull-side gap turns Kauffman's expansive right-center power alley from a HR killer into a HR conduit for a left-handed pull-air hitter.

At +410, You're backing a lefty generating 95+ mph EVs with 15°+ launch angles against a RHP whose fastball Stuff+ has collapsed to 92, whose cutter/changeup/slider all post xwoBACONs above .500 vs LHB, and whose only legitimate HR-suppressing pitch accounts for barely 20% of his usage. Layer in wind blowing out at 13.9 mph and you have the exact contact-profile-meets-environment stack that HR props are priced to miss.

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Nick Kurtz (LHB) +400 .5u

TL:DR Nick strong, pitcher throw flat meatball, wind blow hard to right, Nick hit ball over big wall.

Against RHP 4 seamers, Kurtz's batted-ball data across 491 pitches and 64 balls in play is elite: 96 mph average EV, a 108.7 mph EV90, and a 115.1 mph max EV. His 26.6% barrel rate on the pitch means more than 1 in 4 fastballs he puts in play lands in the optimal EV/launch angle combination for extra-base damage. His 62.5% hard-hit rate on 4-seamers ranks among the best in baseball against the pitch. His average launch angle on the pitch sits at 18.9°; squarely in the HR sweet spot.

Leiter throws his 4-seamer to lefties at a 33.8% clip in 2026, down from 45.7% in 2024, and the contact quality when LHB touch it is catastrophic. In 2026, the pitch carries a .444 xwOBA and .480 xwoBACON against LHB, with 60% HardHit%, a 40% Barrel%, and a 98.1 mph FB EV. His 80% fly-ball rate on the pitch means LHB are lofting it at an average 29.2° launch angle, which is extreme fly-ball territory. The 4-seamer's Height Adj. VAA of +1.4 (92nd percentile) is the key physical driver: despite sitting 96.8 MPH with 16.7" iVB and 2,428 RPM spin, the pitch arrives on one of the flattest planes in baseball. That flat approach angle through the upper zone aligns perfectly with Kurtz left-handed uppercut swing path, turning a pitch with good raw characteristics into a launch pad. Leiter's in-zone CSW% has dropped to just 20% (40th percentile) on the 4-seamer; he can't finish hitters with it, and when they put it in play, and the damage is severe.

Leiter's response has been to lean heavily on his changeup (31.6% usage in 2026), up from 22.2% in 2025 and 11.9% in 2024. But the pitch he's hiding behind is grading out poorly: a 4.26 PLV (27th percentile), .386 xwOBA, and .406 xwoBACON against LHB. The spin has cratered to just 1,401 RPM (11th percentile), and the pitch is generating 66.7% HardHit% and 16.7% Barrel% when contacted. Its FB EV sits at 97 mph; when LHB elevate this changeup, they are launching it. Kurtz's profile against changeups is built for exactly this vulnerability: 92.5 mph average EV, 108.3 mph EV90, 110.6 mph MaxEV, and a 23.5% Barrel% across 260 pitches and 34 BBE. His 58.8% AIR rate and 14.7% Pull AIR% on changeups show he's lofting and pulling the pitch. Kurtz does whiff on changeups (19.2% SwStr%), but when he connects, the quality of contact is at a level most hitters can't reach on any pitch.

The natural counter-argument is Leiter's slider, which functions as his best putaway pitch. It carries a 5.37 PLV (69th percentile), a 25% SwStr%, and a 40% CSW% (96th percentile) against LHB; elite swing-and-miss numbers. But the slider has a fatal flaw: when LHB do make contact, they are doing catastrophic damage. The 2026 xwoBACON on the slider is .526, with a 99.5 mph FB EV, 20% Barrel%, and a 23° launch angle. Its 50% HR/FB rate isn't noise; with only -1.4" iHB (53rd percentile) and -1.9" iVB (22nd percentile), it lacks the horizontal sweep to bury off the plate and the vertical depth to get under bats. When Leiter hangs one; and the data shows he hangs them regularly to lefties; it sits in the barrel zone. Shohei Ohtani's 104.5 mph / 35.6° HR off the slider on April 11 was the signature result, but Leiter's season-long .450 xwOBA on the pitch against LHB tells you that wasn't an outlier; it's the pitch's true profile when contacted.

Kurtz isn't just a fastball punisher; his overall 2026 Statcast profile reads 97.9 mph avg EV (elite), 60.7% HardHit%, and 14.3% Barrel% with a .360 xwOBA. His 2025 season; 36 HR in a partial call-up, unanimous AL Rookie of the Year; established the baseline power skill. His batted-ball architecture supports continued HR production: 61.9% AIR rate in 2026, 33.3% FB%, with a 19% Pull AIR%. The Pull AIR% is moderate, but his recent EV log tells the real story: a 115.1 mph / 16.9° double off Cam Schlittler's 4-seamer (358 ft), a 104.9 mph / 39.8° fly out off Cristian Javier's 4-seamer (367 ft, HR in 15/30 parks), and a 101 mph / 42.5° fly out off Luis Curvelo's slider (341 ft, HR in 2/30 parks). Kurtz is consistently generating 100+ mph EV at HR-viable launch angles; several recent fly balls have died at the warning track in parks that suppress power. His discipline profile is sharp: a 16.6% O-Swing% on 4-seamers is well below league average (31.2%), meaning he waits for pitches in the zone rather than expanding. Against the 4-seam/changeup mix he'll see today, his recent form shows a 20.3% O-Swing% with 84% Z-Contact%; selective and punishing.

Sutter Health Park carries a 118 LHB HR Park Factor over the 2025–2026 window; the second-highest in MLB behind only Coors Field. The park's wOBAcon for LHB sits at 111 and HardHit factor at 101, confirming this isn't just thin air or dimensions; it's a consistently HR-friendly environment for left-handed power. Today's weather adds another tailwind: 17.2 mph winds blowing left-to-right, which translates directly to the LHB pull side (right field). For a hitter who generates 108.7 mph EV90 at 18.9° launch angles on 4-seamers, this wind direction carries warning-track fly balls over the fence; precisely the margin that turned multiple recent Kurtz fly-outs into HR-in-X-parks scenarios. For a pull-heavy LHB, L-to-R wind at 17.2 mph is a direct carry boost to his power field.

You're getting a hitter with a 26.6% barrel rate and 62.5% hard-hit rate on 4-seamers against a pitcher whose 4-seamer carries a .444 xwOBA and arrives on one of the flattest planes in baseball (+1.4 Height Adj. VAA), whose surging changeup grades at a 4.26 PLV with 66.7% HardHit%, and whose slider; even as a putaway pitch; posts a .526 xwoBACON when LHB make contact. The park amplifies everything (118 HR factor), the wind is a direct tailwind to the pull side, and Kurtz's EV ceiling (115.1 MaxEV) means any mistake pitch has HR distance in this environment. The contact quality is elite, the arsenal is exploitable across all three primary offerings, and the environment is the 2nd-most HR-friendly in baseball for his handedness.

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Nick Kurtz (LHB) +400 .5u

TL:DR Nick strong, pitcher throw flat meatball, wind blow hard to right, Nick hit ball over big wall.

Against RHP 4 seamers, Kurtz's batted-ball data across 491 pitches and 64 balls in play is elite: 96 mph average EV, a 108.7 mph EV90, and a 115.1 mph max EV. His 26.6% barrel rate on the pitch means more than 1 in 4 fastballs he puts in play lands in the optimal EV/launch angle combination for extra-base damage. His 62.5% hard-hit rate on 4-seamers ranks among the best in baseball against the pitch. His average launch angle on the pitch sits at 18.9°; squarely in the HR sweet spot.

Leiter throws his 4-seamer to lefties at a 33.8% clip in 2026, down from 45.7% in 2024, and the contact quality when LHB touch it is catastrophic. In 2026, the pitch carries a .444 xwOBA and .480 xwoBACON against LHB, with 60% HardHit%, a 40% Barrel%, and a 98.1 mph FB EV. His 80% fly-ball rate on the pitch means LHB are lofting it at an average 29.2° launch angle, which is extreme fly-ball territory. The 4-seamer's Height Adj. VAA of +1.4 (92nd percentile) is the key physical driver: despite sitting 96.8 MPH with 16.7" iVB and 2,428 RPM spin, the pitch arrives on one of the flattest planes in baseball. That flat approach angle through the upper zone aligns perfectly with Kurtz left-handed uppercut swing path, turning a pitch with good raw characteristics into a launch pad. Leiter's in-zone CSW% has dropped to just 20% (40th percentile) on the 4-seamer; he can't finish hitters with it, and when they put it in play, and the damage is severe.

Leiter's response has been to lean heavily on his changeup (31.6% usage in 2026), up from 22.2% in 2025 and 11.9% in 2024. But the pitch he's hiding behind is grading out poorly: a 4.26 PLV (27th percentile), .386 xwOBA, and .406 xwoBACON against LHB. The spin has cratered to just 1,401 RPM (11th percentile), and the pitch is generating 66.7% HardHit% and 16.7% Barrel% when contacted. Its FB EV sits at 97 mph; when LHB elevate this changeup, they are launching it. Kurtz's profile against changeups is built for exactly this vulnerability: 92.5 mph average EV, 108.3 mph EV90, 110.6 mph MaxEV, and a 23.5% Barrel% across 260 pitches and 34 BBE. His 58.8% AIR rate and 14.7% Pull AIR% on changeups show he's lofting and pulling the pitch. Kurtz does whiff on changeups (19.2% SwStr%), but when he connects, the quality of contact is at a level most hitters can't reach on any pitch.

The natural counter-argument is Leiter's slider, which functions as his best putaway pitch. It carries a 5.37 PLV (69th percentile), a 25% SwStr%, and a 40% CSW% (96th percentile) against LHB; elite swing-and-miss numbers. But the slider has a fatal flaw: when LHB do make contact, they are doing catastrophic damage. The 2026 xwoBACON on the slider is .526, with a 99.5 mph FB EV, 20% Barrel%, and a 23° launch angle. Its 50% HR/FB rate isn't noise; with only -1.4" iHB (53rd percentile) and -1.9" iVB (22nd percentile), it lacks the horizontal sweep to bury off the plate and the vertical depth to get under bats. When Leiter hangs one; and the data shows he hangs them regularly to lefties; it sits in the barrel zone. Shohei Ohtani's 104.5 mph / 35.6° HR off the slider on April 11 was the signature result, but Leiter's season-long .450 xwOBA on the pitch against LHB tells you that wasn't an outlier; it's the pitch's true profile when contacted.

Kurtz isn't just a fastball punisher; his overall 2026 Statcast profile reads 97.9 mph avg EV (elite), 60.7% HardHit%, and 14.3% Barrel% with a .360 xwOBA. His 2025 season; 36 HR in a partial call-up, unanimous AL Rookie of the Year; established the baseline power skill. His batted-ball architecture supports continued HR production: 61.9% AIR rate in 2026, 33.3% FB%, with a 19% Pull AIR%. The Pull AIR% is moderate, but his recent EV log tells the real story: a 115.1 mph / 16.9° double off Cam Schlittler's 4-seamer (358 ft), a 104.9 mph / 39.8° fly out off Cristian Javier's 4-seamer (367 ft, HR in 15/30 parks), and a 101 mph / 42.5° fly out off Luis Curvelo's slider (341 ft, HR in 2/30 parks). Kurtz is consistently generating 100+ mph EV at HR-viable launch angles; several recent fly balls have died at the warning track in parks that suppress power. His discipline profile is sharp: a 16.6% O-Swing% on 4-seamers is well below league average (31.2%), meaning he waits for pitches in the zone rather than expanding. Against the 4-seam/changeup mix he'll see today, his recent form shows a 20.3% O-Swing% with 84% Z-Contact%; selective and punishing.

Sutter Health Park carries a 118 LHB HR Park Factor over the 2025–2026 window; the second-highest in MLB behind only Coors Field. The park's wOBAcon for LHB sits at 111 and HardHit factor at 101, confirming this isn't just thin air or dimensions; it's a consistently HR-friendly environment for left-handed power. Today's weather adds another tailwind: 17.2 mph winds blowing left-to-right, which translates directly to the LHB pull side (right field). For a hitter who generates 108.7 mph EV90 at 18.9° launch angles on 4-seamers, this wind direction carries warning-track fly balls over the fence; precisely the margin that turned multiple recent Kurtz fly-outs into HR-in-X-parks scenarios. For a pull-heavy LHB, L-to-R wind at 17.2 mph is a direct carry boost to his power field.

You're getting a hitter with a 26.6% barrel rate and 62.5% hard-hit rate on 4-seamers against a pitcher whose 4-seamer carries a .444 xwOBA and arrives on one of the flattest planes in baseball (+1.4 Height Adj. VAA), whose surging changeup grades at a 4.26 PLV with 66.7% HardHit%, and whose slider; even as a putaway pitch; posts a .526 xwoBACON when LHB make contact. The park amplifies everything (118 HR factor), the wind is a direct tailwind to the pull side, and Kurtz's EV ceiling (115.1 MaxEV) means any mistake pitch has HR distance in this environment. The contact quality is elite, the arsenal is exploitable across all three primary offerings, and the environment is the 2nd-most HR-friendly in baseball for his handedness.

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