Picolas Cage

$BTC + $ETH swing trader | DeFi enthusiast | Crypto est. 2018

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

I think we bottom'd $57k - most of CT sidelined waiting for Q4 dump.

I'm asking the question 'what takes us there'

Buying absolutely nothing here for at best a -30% from here is, kinda (but not rly cause maths) the same as not selling BTC at $100k because 'it's going to 150k'

It doesn't matter that BTC went to $125k after you sold at $100k because you bought at an average of $25k/coin and you're up 400% worrying about that last 30%

People want lower because they understand that lower entries mathematically are tangibly different at higher levels. Like, that 30% lower allows you to get 30% more BTC and that's a big deal when BTC is at $180k right?

Yes but those same people are ok with 'not buying here because if it does go higher i'll just buy the breakout'

1. You'll probably miss the breakout unless you have limit orders set up

2. Say you buy at, what, $72k? - that's 20% higher than at $60k - but I thought 20% was a lot, right? Only if it fits your bias.

So people are absolutely splitting feathers over a tiny % difference because psychologically they can't get over the fact that BTC hasn't had a big enough drawdown yet and they absolutely hate the idea of their ego being wrong.

Vis-a-vis even if bitcoin goes to $48k from here your decision process was basically wrong, your R:R skewed and you basically got lucky.

You don't want to buy here because it doesn't feel right. Isn't that exactly when bottoms form?

At $48k I'm selling the house and kids to buy BTC. That feels like a really easy trade tbh. Here? Eurgh feels unsure:

> Historically we have larger draw down
> Many smart traders calling for lower
> What if Saylor just keeps selling
> What about Iran and Trump tensions
> etc.

But people arew ignoring:

> Cold Card RNG exploit
> BTCPay Server exploit
> Michael Saylor literally selling (supposed to be the worst case scenario)
> MSTR stress
> STRC stress
> Ongoing Trump vs Iran drama
> SPX dump from 7.5 to 7.3
> Calls for AI bubble bursting (again) with Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused Situational Awareness liquidated entire public stock

We really got absolutely hammered these last fews weeks and the market just couldn't get sub $60k

It doesn't really matter if I'm wrong because trading is all about process and I think your process is probably wrong if you're not buying at least something here - even if it does go below $57k

Like $30k feels like the only acceptable scenario where I would just be unequivocally be wrong.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@CaliBTC_ @katana Yep, small one at the moment to push these new changes.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

Huge changes are coming to @katana (and it's good)

Katana is implementing a buy back using protocol revenue that will directly reward $KAT stakers.

100% of the $KAT the Katana Foundation buys back goes to stakers. All of it.

If you've been following me you'll know I've been a huge fan of what Katana are building.

I've been with them from day 1 and I'm glad to see the changes they're bringing into effect.

In short, they're changing their whole business to massively reward $KAT holders who stake into avKAT.

They own 3 seperate entities now:

> Perps when they bought IDEX, now @katanaperps
> Swap DEX (the Sushi deployment on Katana)
> Vault Bridge (native yield generation)

These 3 protocols, plus sequencer fees, generate revenue - and now this revenue is going directly back to avKAT holders (that's staked $KAT) in the form of buybacks.

The staking lock is now reduced from 45 days to 7 days and protocol fees will fund programmatic open-market KAT buybacks, with 100% of purchased KAT allocated to avKAT stakers.

Buybacks run on a set schedule at launch, moving to fully automated onchain execution at a later date.

If you're bored of being exit liquidity and understand that sometimes just holding money can be a winning tactic, you should take a look at what katana have built.

These new changes are only positive and they reward $KAT holders - which, as a holder, suits me nicely.

[Katana ⚔️ @katana]

https://t.co/val980vNUO

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@0xKYZ @katana Exactly.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@AviiWeb3 @katana 100%

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@pitch_ai_app So get short and make $

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

I'm not saying it's now, and honestly, I don't know when.

But there will come a time when Bitcoin being consistently green + a certain price where people will start to sweat that they didn't buy the $75-73k area.

And then the market will play catch up and pump pretty aggressively.

Then you have to ask yourself, was that an exit pump and trapping everyone, or was 73k the pico low and you didn't buy the lows before a golden bull run.

Either way it's 'fuck with your head' price action for the foreseeable.

Not a fan personally. Very hard to read. Market is getting harder.

General belief + bias is higher soon.

Basically think even if we did get new lows from here, it won't matter in 3 months.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Kristina_Bogda Noice.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Billyjitsu @katana 🤝

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@_Jamisky Dope graphic bro, GG's.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Billyjitsu @katana ok but I'm Arnold.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@Rakermoon @katana Yes sir, KAT whales united.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@pitch_ai_app 'I just know that tomorrow will erase everything'

But you know?

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@pitch_ai_app So you're max short from here? 100x leverage - because you know right?

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@StueyX_au @elonmusk 100% just a clickbait load of trash

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

Twitter has become particularly fucking awful recently.

Please change the 'for you' page back to crypto.

I just don't care about 'what this democrat senator said about this republican congressman'

It's childish, boring and polarising.

Slop feed for slop minds.

I don't have a slop mind, give me something better.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@pitch_ai_app So you're desperate for it to go down.

Don't be desperate.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@memeticsisyphus Brandolini's law kinda covers this.

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@pawnie_ Yo WTF lol

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@mfisher10x @katana 🤝🫡

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@blancxbt @cremedupepe lmaooo

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

@lex_node I had this with someone fron arbitrum earlier in the year.