Pika Capital

Self-proclaimed Chief Electric Officer (C.E.O.)🔌⚡Shockingly successful in Biotech/Tech and Med Devices. Here to make money 💰
NOT investment advice.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

Aunt reached out. I can't think of a better bearish indicator than this one. Be careful out there 😂 $SPCX

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$abvx lots of hard lessons here today. If you followed blindly, it's on you.
I took my fair share of losses over the years and being down 40% on daily hurts but this lesson was needed. Too much confidence and cockiness was flying around while bashing any competition as well

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$abvx the most crowded long on biotwitter is getting 30% cut.
Remember how May was bashing $apge ? 😂

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

Lmao I love how half of retail on biotwitter is praying on Adam May
$APGE $NKTR

[Panther @PickingMyOwn]

Taking the other side of a trade in Atopic Dermatitis against @A_May_MD is suicidal. $APGE $NKTR

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

So who unloaded $APGE this morning in low $60s? 😂 💀
Congrats to buyers

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$IMVT

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$IMVT around $15 was a generational buy. Convince me otherwise.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$DNA this is future $NVTA

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$VRDN +65% PM.
noone cares about vrdn drugs they said 😂

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$SYRE $ORKA $APGE this guy is becoming my favorite contra indicator. The more he is gonna cry about "me too" "absurd" valuations, the more money longs are gonna make here. Apparently only $NKTR and $ABVX are allowed to go up 🙄

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$ORKA noone is allowed to 10x on bio stock, only 👑 Adam May. So salty 😂 $APGE

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

$ORKA with 63% PASI100 at week 16.

High dose skyrizi in the knockout trial achieved 67%.

In phase 3 Bimzelx achieved 62%.

At >$100 parmarket, $ORKA’s market cap is nearly $7B.

This makes it the single most overvalued stock that I cover. $7B for phase 2a data that only matches existing bars and will have to go against massive biosimilar competition in the single most well-served indication in dermatology, and likely in the entire landscape of I&I. Absolutely absurd.

#Short

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

Prices for LA Olympics tickets are wildddddd. I got a reservation spot and these are the prices for Track and Field.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$orka massive winner for Pika. Taking some off the table.
As usual credit to @ONeilTrader for bringing this name up to my attention

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

Added to $IMVT at $15 this morning and loaded some $ORKA. Never say never but it's hard to imagine that Imvt won't at least 2x from here if 1402 continues to deliver.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$XBI lol i don't even remember when we had xbi up 6% on daily last time 💰💰

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$ARWR
He blocked me, so can't repost. Posts like this show how LITTLE he knows about Arrowhead.
"A ton" lol 🤡

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$WVE $ARWR
Not sure if this guru is still long wve but he still remains my favorite contra indicator
This Kirk guy also will finally stop pumping wve

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$APGE I doubt you will ever see July 2025 levels here again. Plus absolutely the right decision to raise $300m today. I'd even do $400-450m.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$APGE adding here. ~1.3B EV is a joke. AD market (plus other indications) is so huge that APG 777 does NOT even need to compete on efficacy with Dupixent or Ebglyss. They can grab piece of multi billion 🥧 just on convenience alone plus you have different combos in the pipeline.

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$APGE so who was short 😂 🤡

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

@EzTech231 Yep. I can see it too. This is a bigger deal than mura/grain in S24 Ultra. It's more crazy than the majority of people can't see it lol. It's so apparent and my vision is perfect too. Samsung messed up big time putting half baked privacy hardware tech in their top model

[Pika Capital @PikaCapital]

$APGE I think he might be still short APGE. Cry harder, Adam.

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

I swear I've never seen a market understand a disease/disease landscape worse than atopic derm.
The $NKTR and $APGE price actions are absolutely WRONG today, and I'll tell you why.

Apparently (?) the market is selling $NKTR today because of $PFE data with their phase 2 IL4/13+TSLP data this morning. If you asked me before the market opened if I thought this would affect $NKTR at all I would've said "no". In fact, in private conversations before open I did just that.

The $PFE drug is yet another IL4/13 axis drug, adding in TSLP, which has a checkered past and may or may not actually add to IL4/13 blockade (there is both some reason to believe that the target is not active in AtD at al and/or that it is not additive to IL4/13 since these are all heavily TH2-skewed targets).

The $PFE drug vies for first line positioning, where IL4/13 is used...

...for the millionth time...THE ENTIRE POINT OF $NKTR'S DRUG IS TO BE USED ***AFTER*** IL4/13 DRUGS. There is no world in which a patient should fail an IL4/13+TSLP drug and then go onto a plain old IL4/13 drug....This is where a completely differentiated MoA like NKTR's is needed...this is the *ENTIRE* point of the drug...

So who could the $PFE news actually significantly affect?

$APGE!!!

$APGE is trying to develop long acting IL4/13 drugs to take their share of this first line IL4/13 market...the $PFE news gives them a DIRECT competitor in that market, with $PFE's drug adding an extra MoA that $APGE lacks.

$APGE went with OX40 as their IL4/13 combo partner target, because they observed that TSLP had failed in prior trials and that the TSLP pathway simply overlaps with IL4/13 (meaning it might be a redundant target).

$APGE went with OX40, which as we all now know is potentially dead in AtD due to cancer risks.

So, $APGE should be down today, right? Right?! They now have a direct competitor in $PFE that is vying for space in their same line of therapy/target. New competitive risk, right?!

Well, $APGE is *GREEN* today, while $NKTR is -10%.

This. Market. Reaction. Is. Wrong. Period.

These price actions should be reversed by any sane logic.

If you want to argue $APGE should be flat/green because the AtD market is so massive that it can handle more drugs, then fine. But there is absolutely ZERO reason for $NKTR to be -10% while $APGE is green on this "news". $PFE is a DIRECT competitor for $APGE versus an oblique competitor for $NKTR at worst.

I cannot comprehend how it is possible that people STILL do not understand the "differentiated MoA" use case of $NKTR's rezpeg. It is truly hard for me to fathom how a market can be this STUPID and inefficient.

As far as market inefficiencies go, the AtD space is the gift that keeps on giving. Absolutely insane.

Yet again, moving more stuff to buy $NKTR -10%. I'd love short more $APGE >$73 too...but alas, capital constraints push more to the better r/r of the two. There's clearly no competition there AFAIC.