𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

Nerd at Pinecone Macro Research

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Production shut-in excluding Iran is back to -7.5 million b/d.

If the inbound tanker count remains low, we will be back to -9 million b/d by the end of the month.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

@SchaefferSWMO Yeah I have referred to something like this as a Mohammad Accord and I think it is more possible than folks think

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Let's say the US and Iran are both serious about the strait - it would require the US to have a huge permanently deployed (but not too close) force to play whack a drone and whack a missile in perpetuity. The end result would be much less petroleum throughput through the strait, structurally higher shipping costs, ships getting hit at least monthly despite best efforts and of course putting people in harm's way on a daily basis. I am not sure how you spin that as a win if we are still here in six month or a year.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

And yet

[dnap @dnapway]

Chamath reveals his company's AI token costs are doubling every 45 days but productivity is only up 5%

"I sat down with my CTO today, I said how are we doing on token spend. And he said the most incredible thing, he said right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days. I said well what is the downstream productivity? And he said maybe 5% max."

"So my costs are doubling every 45 days, my upside is essentially flat. He said honestly, what we're finding out is that you need to use a lot more tokens to get to this next iteration of improvement because we've effectively already asymptoted."

"We're going to take a step back and try to figure out what to do. I don't know how many other companies will actually go through this reckoning now, but the point is everybody in the next three or four years will for sure go through it."

"I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table. Because I think that's probably what allows you to get out at a huge price and raise a huge amount of money."

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

https://t.co/W39fh28ggs

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

✅Energy Infrastructure Escalation

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Kuwait says three northern border posts and an offshore Kuwait Oil Company drilling platform were attacked.

The incidents caused property damage, and one worker was injured in a drone strike.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Live shot of folks buying 3X SpaceX ETFs

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Russian soldier with a mobile air defense team nearly kills several other soldiers in a training incident, after losing control of his YakB-12.7mm Rotary Machine Gun, normally mounted on the Mil Mi-24 Hind Helicopter Gunship.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

T-minus 6 hours, 45 minutes until peace in the Middle East.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

https://t.co/mAZP8Tz3nM

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

*All vessels that do not mind drones and missiles

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Smokey's Strait | What Does a Sorta Open Strait Mean?
https://t.co/s6JB64Uy7P

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

The strait being ‘sorta open’ keeps significant production shut in which keeps significant global liquid draws in place. Bypasses help as does production increases outside the gulf. - but they do not replace 5mb/d of shut in production.

[Kpler @Kpler]

Hormuz traffic stays cautious

Confirmed crossings through the Strait of Hormuz zone fell for a second consecutive day on 9 July, dropping to 22 from 30 the previous day. Activity remained largely low risk, with commercial traffic only marginally exceeding non commercial movements. Operators continued to favour the Iranian route, while the Omani route saw just one crossing, reinforcing the lasting impact of recent security incidents near Oman. Although no new physical attacks have been recorded since 7 July, renewed US-Iran military escalation has weakened confidence that diplomacy will provide near term stability.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/DgLvcUjM5S

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

*All vessels that do not mind drones and missiles

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*US SAYS HORMUZ IS OPEN TO ALL VESSELS SEEKING SAFE TRANSIT

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

As a CLE fan Coog - special day

[Houston Baseball @UHCougarBB]

On his way to Cleveland 🏃‍♂️

@BroussardTre x #BuiltByHouston

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

@geo_fed @calvinfroedge @KYRRadio That is truly perfect 😂😂😂

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Happy Weekend

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

This situation calls for a memorandum of understanding

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to sources speaking to Al Arabiya, the U.S., Pakistan, Qatar, and Iran are set to hold a four-way call soon. This comes as U.S. President Donald J. Trump has said that Iran would like to return to talks despite, according to the same statement from the president, the ceasefire not being in effect.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

@timztweet44 I do not disagree

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

🫪

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Ukrainian naval drones hit 13 Russian shadow fleet boats near Crimea overnight, bringing the total to 48 vessels struck in the past five days.

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

https://t.co/9VJq1FYSUR

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

https://t.co/LOs6zzaFL8

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

AI may end up as a disinflationary force - but…

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

The craziest part is that the recent vertical rise is only after a multi-decade period of strong deflation

Semiconductors & other electronic components fell -50% from 1990->2024 when the AI buildout started