Shawn

Christian - American First - Hispanic - Mike Rogers Stan

Just here existing trying to not piss off the wrong people ❤️

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

2026 November Predictions

Date: 9/1/2026

Senate Flips:

NC: 🔴 --> 🔵 (Lean D)
ME: 🔴 --> ⚪️ (Tossup)
MI: 🔵 --> 🔴 (Tilt R)
AK: 🔴 --> ⚪️ (Tossup)

Governor Flips:

KS: 🔵 --> 🔴 (Likely R)
IA: 🔴 --> ⚪️ (Tossup)
GA: 🔴 --> ⚪️ (Tossup)

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

2026 November Predictions

Date 8/9/2026

Senate Flips:

NC: 🔴 --> 🔵 (Likely D)
ME: 🔴 --> 🔵 (Tilt D)
MI: ⚪️ --> 🔴 (Tilt R)

Governor Flips:

WI: 🔵 --> 🔴 (Tilt R)
KS: 🔵 --> 🔴 (Likely R)
IA: 🔴 --> 🔵 (Tilt D)
GA: 🔴 --> 🔵 (Tilt D)

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Unironically half of California kills themselves if this happens and he wins because Kamala once again is an atrocious General Election candidate

[Kangmin Lee | 이강민 @kangminlee]

I think Trump should run for a 3rd term in 2028

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

(R-AK) Sen. Lisa Murkowski would've 100% defended Lindsay Clancy if given the chance to speak on the matter to the press

She is one of the worst sitting Republican Senator and it's hardly any competition with how fucking indefensible this behavior is

DOA in 2028

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

#AlaskaSenate

CNN: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) defends Mary Peltola after reports of abusive behavior

“I do acknowledge that while she was here in her first term, she was not only thrown into a very challenging situation immediately running for campaign, but then to lose her husband in that airplane crash and to deal with all of that. That’s pressure that is hard for anybody to bear,” she said.

https://t.co/9cLOZFOQ1B

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Ukraine might unironically be the largest Democratic Plant in the world

Genuinely how hard is it to not strike further oil refineries that further tighten Diesel Demand

I want to just cut off all aid to Ukraine for straight up hurting Republicans chances at holding congress

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Ukrainian drones have just struck Russia's Perm oil refinery this morning, one of the country's largest and one of six refineries that together produce about half of Russia's diesel, with the refinery now on fire.

This comes as the US, the world’s largest diesel exporter, is preparing a 90-day export ban that Trump is inclined to announce by the end of the week. Russia, the second largest, already halted theirs.

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

When the Economy in Iran is so bad you don't have the time to wait 40 days for the U.S. to finish their Midterm Elections and deal with an extra month of Negotiations

October Surprise maybe?

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRANIAN PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN SAYS TEHRAN WANTS TO REVIVE ITS CEASEFIRE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE U.S. BEFORE THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SAYING IRAN DOES NOT WANT TALKS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE VOTE. - NBC NEWS

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Looks like the calvary is heading for James Talarico which shows internal polling potentially has him slipping

Definitely should have Democrats worried if they don't send him a decent amount of money

Ken Paxton gaining steam heading into October

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

#TexasSenate

FEC: Chuck Schumer’s super PAC launches “Texas Forever” PAC to boost James Talarico

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Can the people of New Jersey start the process of a Recall effort because this is fucking ridiculous

This position needs to be replaced and they need to move forward with impeachment

Any behavior of this caliber is completely unacceptable

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

New Jersey Lieutenant Governor Dale Caldwell indicated in new statement that he won’t step down over sexual harassment report.

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@earlyvotedata What should worry Democrats is them believe some of these tossup states might be already a lock and won't even bother to show up in November

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

For anyone curious Rick Jackson is outspending KLB 952:1

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

VoteHub: Future linear ad reservations for Georgia Governor:

🟥$40,500,000
🟦$42,000

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@PollTracker2024 That explains the results.

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@RedEaglePatriot Have the same map but 50/50 on Michigan and less bullish on Alaska like you

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

I mean when rebel groups are trying to assassinate your military leaders I feel like that’s a clear sign to wrap it up

Still doubtful that they actually want to restart the MOU but I’ll wait till more information comes out or either side denies this speculation

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRANIAN PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN SAYS TEHRAN WANTS TO REVIVE ITS CEASEFIRE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE U.S. BEFORE THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SAYING IRAN DOES NOT WANT TALKS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE VOTE. - NBC NEWS

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Don’t look into this that much it’s one of the only states where he still has solid approval ratings

None of the races are close in Oklahoma he just wants to speak to a friendly crowd and boost turnout among some of his most dedicated voters

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

CNN: President Trump will campaign in deep red Durant, Oklahoma on October 1.

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

With this much Split Ticket Voting in Georgia it's safe to say that Rick Jackson is on track to win this race in November

Only reason Republicans will hold this seat is because of how much money Jackson has spent on advertisements

Burt Jones would've lost this race

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Big Data Poll | released 9/24 (likely voters)

Georgia Governor 2026

🟥Rick Jackson 47.6%
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 45.7%
——
(Leans pushed)
🟥Rick Jackson 50.1%
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.9%

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Decent Chance Maryland's attempt at Redistricting fails

If this is a Democrat Pollster and they're struggling to break 40% for Support

Than Republicans have a solid change at holding onto their last congressional district in the state

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Hart Research Associates poll | 9/8-9/10 LV

Maryland redistricting ballot initiative 2026, Question 3

✅Support 40%
❌Oppose 35%
Not sure 25%

(Democratic pollster)

Link to poll: https://t.co/xKEcCEK36W

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@PollTracker2024 Jackson just bought this race 😭😭😭

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@earlyvotedata Internals must be a fucking shitshow

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

Chuck Schumer's Senate Pickup Priorities

> Vast amount of the money heading towards Ohio
> Increase focus on Maine
> Noticeable amount of money for New Hampshire
> Optimism for Iowa
> Some money for Georgia / North Carolina
> Hardly any money for Alaska
> No $ for Texas

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

Chuck Schumer's SMP-affiliated PACs drop $23.65 million on 8 races (more on 2 separate filings):

$8.55M #OHSen
$3.16M #MESen
$2.91M #MISen
$2.57M #IASen
$1.81M #NHSen
$1.75M #NCSen
$1.57M #AKSen
$1.32M #GASen

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@PollTracker2024 LOL

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

@earlyvotedata I don’t want to hear shit until reports have been confirmed by BOTH NATIONS

[Shawn @PinguinoLatin]

"No Patrick, Kansas Senate is not going to be competitive this year when Florida is voting for Donalds & Moody by near double digits"

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Wedgewood poll | 9/22-9/24 LV

US Senate Kansas 2026

🟦Adam Hamilton 50%
🟥Roger Marshall 48% (incumbent)