Pine Trades

Founder of XCelsior Holdings | Growth Investor
🇵🇹🇪🇸

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

After a crazy 2025, I really thought the market was going to cool down…

After the US intervention in Venezuela, I really thought the market was going to cool down…

What I did not expect was to be more than 10% up in the first two trading days of 2026

The market never fails to impress these days.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$COIN's biggest near-term catalyst isn't earnings. It's whether the CLARITY Act clears the Senate.

The bill decides which crypto tokens are securities. That kills years of lawsuit risk for Coinbase and lets them list coins they currently can't touch.

That's the trade.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

Being right about $TSLA's valuation for three years and losing money for three years is the same outcome. The market doesn't grade on fundamentals.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$KO is down nearly 20% from its 2024 high.

The business is fine. Rates went up, bonds now pay real income, and income investors stopped needing dividend stocks as a substitute.

That's the whole story.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$NBIS owns its compute outright instead of renting it. Zuckerberg just said compute keeps getting more valuable. That's the whole thesis.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

The top 10 S&P 500 performers YTD in 2026:

1. $SNDK — +411%
2. $DELL — +260%
3. $MU — +207%
4. $STX — +195%
5. $INTC — +175%
6. $MRVL — +157%
7. $WDC — +152%
8. $LITE — +142%
9. $AMD — +126%
10. $HPE — +122%

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$DELL at $439 prices in a perfect AI spending boom.

If Amazon, Google, and Microsoft accelerate building their own servers, that 20x earnings multiple collapses to 14-16x. That's $310.

Executing well isn't the same as having room to run.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$AMZN reported $115B in free cash flow last year. But that excludes capital lease payments — money already owed for data centers and delivery hubs. Add those back and real free cash flow is closer to $40B. The headline number is real. It's just not complete.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$OKLO up while $CEG and the rest of nuclear sell off. The blanket "nuclear trade" is over. Market's sorting individual names now.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$JEPQ pays ~10% yield but it's taxed as ordinary income — same rate as your salary, not the 15–20% dividend rate.

If you're in the 37% bracket, that "10% yield" is closer to 6.3% after federal tax.

Fine in an IRA. Brutal in a taxable account.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

The market spent two weeks calling AI capex reckless. Then $META posted 48% operating income growth and nobody had a good answer.

At what point does "disciplined spending" just mean "we didn't bet big enough"?

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$CRWV near a 52-week low with $100B in contracted future revenue.

Either the market thinks that backlog won't pay out — or the stock is cheap and nobody wants to be first.

One of those is right.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$NVDA options are pricing in an 8–10% swing into earnings. That's not cheap — that's the market telling you it already expects fireworks. If the stock moves exactly that much, you break even. You need a genuine shock to make money buying here.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

Buybacks at a low price create value. Buybacks at a peak just transfer cash to sellers. Same tool, opposite outcome depending on when the board pulls the trigger.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$ASTS will almost certainly post another loss next quarter. Nobody cares.

The only number that matters: how many satellites are live and covering paying customers. Miss that milestone, stock gets hit. Beat it, losses don't matter.

Earnings are noise right now.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$KO's best earnings day since 2009.

Headline says World Cup. Real story: they raised full-year guidance when almost nobody else is.

Market was starving for a grower. $KO showed up.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$NRGV $FLNC $ARRY all trade like energy storage is a 2030 problem.

Finland just ran a sand battery through an entire winter — commercial scale, heating a whole town.

The tech isn't theoretical anymore.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$KO reports July 28. People calling it a "smart money setup" are confusing a 3% dividend and 5% growth with a trade. It's not a setup. It's a place to park cash while you wait for something to actually move.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$ISRG down but the moat is intact — once a hospital trains its surgeons on da Vinci, they don't switch. The hardware is sticky in a way most med-tech isn't.

[Pine Trades @PinhPoint]

$GOOGL raised its AI spending forecast and the stocks that popped weren't other big tech names.

They were the landlords — $NBIS, $IREN, the data center operators renting compute to whoever wins. Biggest buyer spends more = suppliers win regardless of which model takes the crown.