Profitable Pinhooking

Dr Erwin Koenen | Geneticist | Providing breeders and pinhookers in GB/IRE/AUS with data-driven information to improve their financial results.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

Interested in the returns and risks of foal pinhooking in Britain and Ireland?

Check out our latest analysis of the financial results here: https://t.co/lTcgjbQJPD.

Get in touch if you're buying foals at the upcoming foal sales and would like a second opinion.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

The #GoffsPremier Sale offers a great opportunity to identify future talent. Behind every catalogue page is a complex genetic story. If you need an independent second opinion on pedigree quality and genetic potential, feel free to DM me.

[Goffs UK @GoffsUK]

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘂𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 ✨

£750,000 in additional prize money awaits graduates of this year's sale...

Read more: https://t.co/2BVPilfmqX

#GoffsPremier | 25 - 26 August

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@TomWilsonHorses @Tinky47flat I wonder whether average log earnings per runner might provide a more robust sire ranking, as it would be less sensitive to outliers and could better reflect overall sire quality than average earnings per runner.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@1844DerbyFraud Mitochondrial haplotypes tell us where a horse’s maternal line came from. They do not tell us, by themselves, how fast a horse will run.
For performance prediction, we should focus on the much larger contribution of the nuclear genome and validated phenotypic data.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@ciaranodeorain To add another perspective on the role of country of training, the paper by Sobotková et al. (2023) may be of interest.

https://t.co/gk1eJHUh0B

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@ciaranodeorain Yes, exactly. I was thinking about the size and composition of the underlying populations. The rise of British 5yos is fascinating, but it would be useful to separate training effects, population changes and possible shifts in genetic selection.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

A valuable perspective from @TheTBA_GB Chairman Philip Newton on how data and technology will shape the future of Thoroughbred breeding.

https://t.co/cpzCQ1KnKq

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@TrevDonaldson Interesting idea.

Pedigree analysis can identify expected relationships, but “autosomal reshuffling of key ancestors in the “bottom half” sounds more like a biological narrative than a validated method. Evidence that this approach improves prediction accuracy would be valuable.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@byronrogers73 This paper shows complex ML adds little over linear regression in predicting Thoroughbred yearling prices.
The bottleneck may not be better algorithms, but better predictors. Objective genetic evaluations could add information beyond pedigree reputation.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@pedigrees360 @reredevaux The 81% statistic is notable, but depends on the base rate: how many horses were rated highly overall, and how many became Derby winners? Otherwise it’s hard to separate predictive power from a broad selection.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@SWSireLine I have reservations about the Rasmussen Factor. I can’t find scientific evidence that it reliably increases the chances of producing top racehorses.
For practical breeders, it reads more like an interesting pattern in retrospectively selected lists than a proven predictive tool.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@VictorSheahan Thanks again for your professional evaluation, Victor — broadly in agreement. On Ghaiyyath, I see less reason to remain on the fence given the data to date. Also keen to see how the first runners by Naval Crown will perform on the racecourse.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@VictorSheahan Great, thorough analysis on Coolmore sires.

My Top 3 young, unproven sires (all max €20k) based on pedigree & own-performance results: Henry Longfellow, Henri Matisse and Blackbeard.

Big risks, potential big rewards – all three bring talent, potential and a touch of danger!

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

Magic Millions Gold Coast 2026 🐎 Buyers — which tool gives the sharpest edge on racing potential?

Vote & reply with your secrets — any hidden gems we should know about?

#MagicMillions #GoldCoast #YearlingSale

@Pedigrees360 @G1Goldmine @GeneuseOfficial @TomWilsonHorses

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

Panellist Julian Dollar correctly notes that book placement of lots at the yearling sales is dominated by their sires. I’d add that giving the dam’s genetics due weight rewards smart breeders, boosts sales returns, and improves genetic diversity in the top segment.

[The Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association (The TBA) @TheTBA_GB]

Looking for something to do this weekend?

Catch up on the Building Bloodlines forum for valuable insight from our expert panel...

📺Available now on TB-Ed 🔗 https://t.co/VFzVHWHyMw

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@KatyMowat Elite imports can boost genetic progress in India, but true competitiveness will mainly come when a higher genetic trend closes — or at least significantly narrows — the gap with overseas populations. I’m curious to see how Indian breeders will optimise their breeding programme.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@MAXBloodstock On pedigree alone, I’d also have placed Lot 644 at the top of the Goffs foal sale. Had I factored in other criteria the ranking might have shifted — and whether she proves the wisest pinhooking investment remains to be seen. The yearling market will have the final say.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

Best of luck to all pinhookers at the Goffs Foal Sale this week.

It’s a challenging market, but there’s still real value out there for those who look closely. If you’re seeking informed, data-driven advice on finding it, I’m here to help. Have a great week at Goffs! 🐎✨

[TDN @theTDN]

“As a pinhooker, I always try to get value, but the breeder also deserves to get paid and there are few better places to sell a foal than @Goffs1866.”

@BrianSheerin91 speaks to pinhookers as the foal sales kick off. https://t.co/BvSQXVgTOf

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

@Cosmotcb1 @TheIrishField Yes, at the end of the day, the proof of a stallion’s genetic quality is in the performance of his offspring. That said, this poll focuses on the information available at the time stallions are retired, when we don’t yet know how their progeny will perform.

[Profitable Pinhooking @pinhooking]

After reading Mark Costello’s article in @TheIrishField, on the economics of the stallion game, I’m curious: must a stallion always be a Group 1 winner to become a successful sire? (Or can a strong pedigree outweigh his race record?)