$BTC – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Everyone and I mean literally everyone I personally know has told me over the last three or four weeks, and especially over the last two weeks, that they want to buy in September or October. That alone is already very dangerous. When you ask them why, they all give the same answer: “Because of the four-year cycle.” And I honestly ask myself how long some of these people have even been in the market. The four-year cycle also worked almost perfectly at the top, but nobody talked about it then. That is the difference. At $120,000, nobody wanted to talk about the four-year cycle. In fact, people hated it. They said, “It does not exist. It does not exist,” because they were greedy and wanted prices to keep going higher.
Now the same people are greedy again, just in the opposite direction. They believe the market is going to serve them the exact bottom on a silver platter. “Here is the bottom. It will come around September or October. The exact price will be this or that.” That is genuinely what people believe. The problem is not the four-year cycle itself. The problem is the number of people who believe in the exact same outcome. The more people believe it, the less realistic it becomes. I honestly believe we will not see this traditional four-year-cycle bottom
The next question is: what do we actually see instead?
At the moment, I do not even see Bitcoin going below $50,000. There is an extreme amount of liquidity around $54,000, and that cannot be ignored. You have to keep that level in mind. From the current price down to $54,000 is around 15%. From a risk-reward perspective, even if we assume the worst-case scenario is a move into the $54,000 region, buying now and facing 15% downside is not much. It is nothing compared with the people who always and stupidly bought at $70,000, $80,000 or $90,000, and those who never understood the right moment to enter the market, and anyway, those people will always buy, and we cant count them among those who bought the bottom.
That is why it makes sense to begin accumulating now, step by step. Not all in. That is very important. I do not suddenly FOMO in and deploy everything. No. This will still take some time. I also believe the real move higher is not starting immediately. But there is one more thing people should not forget. They say the four-year cycle should end around October. Fine. Then let me ask you a counterquestion:
BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P, Nasdaq and the other major institutions are all involved in the DTCC, the new financial market infrastructure, and they want to move forward with the tokenization of stocks. BlackRock wants to launch the new platform in October. What does that mean?
It means investors WILL trade stocks 24 hours a day. That is enormous, and the market still has not fully understood it. Tokenization has mostly been treated like a beta phase until now. Platforms such as Hyperliquid and similar markets were effectively test environments. They wanted to see how much demand there was, how users would react and whether the infrastructure worked. The users had to be tested. The technology had to be tested. The market had to be tested. And it worked extremely well. Now it has been announced that this is expected to move forward in October. At the same time, there are rumors that the Clarity Act could pass in August. That would be enormous news.
If it passes, there is regulatory clarity. Institutions can enter the crypto market much more easily. I do not necessarily believe they will suddenly start buying the entire crypto market at scale, but I do believe they will move aggressively into tokenization, which could follow one or two months later. So lets return to my question:
Who benefits from tokenization?
First of all, the entire crypto market benefits. Even if institutions do not directly buy every cryptocurrency in large size, the narrative becomes bullish for crypto and Blockchain. The market starts to see blockchain as legitimate, institutional and part of the future financial system.
Then you will see prices move strongly in my opinion. I expect we will see BlackRock announcing partnerships, BlackRock doing something with Bitcoin, Trump making new statements, and suddenly the entire narrative becomes extremely bullish because everything fits together. Do you really believe BlackRock will aggressively push tokenization forward in October while, at the exact same time, the crypto market crashes, fear dominates and nobody wants anything to do with crypto? Do you think that ? I do not.
I believe we will see FOMO in October. I believe we will see large candles and strong momentum in the market. It may not necessarily be the same type of retail FOMO we have seen before, but there will be growing confidence and acceptance, while major bullish news enters the market at the same time. And this will be the time where the retails are sitting and doing what ? Exactly, these people will wait for their four years cycle! Let them wait for their cycle, because the market will front run that! In my opinion, that will create an extremely powerful bullish narrative.
That is why the fact that everyone now believes in the four-year-cycle bottom is a warning sign to me. It tells me the crowd may once again be completely wrong. I especially believe that many people sitting with buy orders below $50,000 will never get filled. That is why I am starting to accumulate now. I hope we still take the liquidity around $54,000, because that would give an even better entry. I have my orders ready, and I will continue buying gradually every day.
The Exact Strategy: How I Am Buying, How Much I Am Deploying, and the BTC–ETH Ratio
Watching this chart closely. In my opinion, once Bitcoin reclaims and flips the green line on the weekly timeframe, the end of the bear market will be confirmed. This would not be a standalone signal. It would align with several other indicators I am monitoring, some of which I have already disclosed inside Premium, together with multiple technical, psychological and fundamental factors I am currently considering. Bitcoin has already reclaimed the weekly MA200. The next major step is to reclaim this green line and hold above it on the weekly close. Once that happens, my next major target becomes $80,000. For now, however, Bitcoin has faced a rejection at this level, while a large amount of liquidity remains around $54,000. That is why my strategy is structured around two completely separate buckets of capital. It is important to understand that I am not mixing these funds.
The first bucket consists entirely of realized profits from the Bitcoin short opened around $120,000 and the more than 100 altcoin shorts I held for approximately nine months. I deployed that entire bucket yesterday and bought Bitcoin at around $64,000. In other words, I converted the profits made during the bear market directly into a long-term Bitcoin position fully.
The second bucket is completely separate. This is capital that was never used in the short positions and remained on the sidelines. I am now deploying this cash gradually. My plan is to invest this second bucket on every day Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. Five percent multiplied by 20 purchases equals 100%, meaning the entire amount would be deployed if Bitcoin remains inside this accumulation zone for approximately 20 buying days.
If Bitcoin trades at $64,000, I buy. If it trades at $60,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it reaches $54,000, I continue buying at a better price. However, if Bitcoin moves above $64,000, I stop adding the daily 5%. I will not chase the market outside the accumulation zone. After approximately one month, the objective is to hold one large Bitcoin position purchased at around $64,000 using the realized short profits, together with a second position accumulated gradually through disciplined daily purchases. Depending on how deeply Bitcoin trades inside the range, I expect my combined average entry to settle somewhere around the $60,000 region.
From a risk-to-reward perspective, I personally consider my average Bitcoin entry around $60,000 to be phenomenal for the long term. That level is below the previous 2021 all-time-high region, and thats an exceptional position. At the same time, I am following a fixed BTC-to-ETH allocation. For every four dollars I invest in Bitcoin, I invest one dollar in Ethereum. That means for every $100,000 deployed into BTC, I allocate $25,000 to ETH.
Bitcoin remains the dominant position, while Ethereum receives an allocation equal to 25% of every Bitcoin purchase. Ethereum is a separate topic that deserves its own full report, because I am extremely bullish on ETH for the next major market expansion. So the strategy is clear: one bucket of realized short profits has already been fully deployed into Bitcoin at approximately $64,000. The second bucket is being deployed gradually through daily 5% purchases whenever Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. For every four dollars invested in BTC, one dollar is invested in ETH.
That is the strategy, my accumulation just started
Join Premium and you will not miss out on what exactly I am buying, what I plan to build, where I place potential long orders and other of my trading targets: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
Crypto project support playbook:
“We will check with our team.”
“We will pass the feedback to the team.”
“Please be patient.”
No ETA.
No public explanation.
Somehow this is still considered communication.
Litecoin update:
• A zero-day bug caused a DoS attack that disrupted major mining pools.
• Non-updated mining nodes allowed an invalid MWEB transaction allowing them to peg out coins to third party DEX’s
• A 13-block reorg reversed those invalid transactions — they will not be included in the main chain
• All valid transactions during that period remain unaffected
• The bug is now fully patched, and the network continues to operate normally
1/7 Has Bitcoin $BTC bottomed?
After analyzing multiple historical patterns and on-chain metrics, I’ve mapped out the high-probability accumulation zones.
Instead of guessing, we follow the data. Here is the blueprint for the next bull market.
STABLECOINS JUST FLIPPED THE US BANKING SYSTEM (ACH) 🚨
Stablecoins processed $7.2T in February, surpassing ACH at $6.8T for the first time ever.
That’s not crypto hype -- that’s core financial infrastructure getting replaced in real time.
This is the signal: capital is moving to rails that are 24/7, global, and instant. No banks, no weekends, no borders. Cross-border flows and B2B settlement are driving this -- not retail speculation.
Bitcoin is the reserve asset, but stablecoins are becoming the plumbing of the system. Follow the rails, follow the liquidity. 🌊
Circle was asleep while many millions of USDC was swapped via CCTP from Solana to Ethereum for hours from the 9 figure Drift hack during US hours.
Value was moved and nothing was done yet again.
Comes days after you froze 16+ business hot wallets incompetently which is still being slowly unfrozen.
@circle@jerallaire@usdc are bad actors for the industry.
Indeed, it was *because* I was not from the aerospace industry that SpaceX made such radical breakthroughs. Same for Tesla.
Those in the industry would have if they could have.
In 2015, I purchased this Naklua condo in North Pattaya, for 2900 BTC. It was the first home I had ever owned. Although I only lived here for about two years before moving on to Bangkok and Seoul, and later to Europe, my time in Pattaya gave me my first real experience of living abroad and the courage to explore much farther parts of the world.
When I first moved here, I had never set foot in a major developed country. During my first two years in Pattaya, I obtained a visa from the U.S. embassy in Thailand and received a second passport from Saint Kitts and Nevis. It was also here that I began to reshape my life and shift my focus away from the country where I was born. While many Chinese miners were still celebrating the early crypto boom before the eventual crackdown, I had already tasted my first real sense of freedom thanks to Pattaya.
It was here that I personally built and launched our Zcash mining pool. I also witnessed the transition from Rama IX to Rama X, and watched the FamilyMart downstairs magically transform into a Tops Daily almost overnight.
Yesterday, I sold this condo for 7 BTC.
Life must go on, and I will miss Pattaya.
Bon voyage.
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