Piotr Miliński

Multi asset fund manager, Quercus Global Balanced. Running / cycling explorer. Private opinions.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

@konradryczko @1koma44 Chyba taki KOSPI-lite. POLGB ostatnio relatywnie b. mocne, każdy się wydłużył (aukcje schodziły gładko), a teraz okazało się, że to jednak ma jakąś betę vs oil/inflacja. Wydaje się, że mocno sypią międzynarodowi, a nie kraj

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

@konradryczko @1koma44 Wesoły rynek, w kwotowaniach dzisiaj często best bid > best offer

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

@ZavCorin @EffMktHype It's been spilling over into other markets, though. EMs have rallied, Japan as well, European banks/industrials are strong. Poland has been inundated with inflows, both on FI and equities. Against that backdrop, US equities have been relatively weak over the last few quarters.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

@konradryczko Rozjazd kursów między $CSU.TO (przejmującym) a ACP wygląda pięknie. Jedno zleciało z ~35x forward P/E na 19x, drugie poszybowało z 12x na 22x. Jakby ta imponująca niezłomność Asseco miała się skończyć... :)

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

TLDR: The deal should be 50% cash / 50% OAI equity for nVidia, although I might be understating the cash portion. 1GW deployed = ~21bn+ of revenues, out of which 10bn flows back to OAI as equity.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

Some rough math on the $NVDA / OpenAI deal. Looks like circular financing at first glance, but there should be plenty of cashflow as well. nVidia will invest 10bn in OpenAI per 1GW deployed, with the first one coming online in H2 2026 (based on Vera Rubin architecture).

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

For reference, sell side tends to assume $25-30bn per 1GW for networking + GPU (last gen). Jensen himself stated $35bn. Power use grows quicker than chip price, so 1GW = less racks ($ revenue) than before. Though some additional $ may come in maintenance / replacement capex

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

@TrysteroBlog Ciekawe - teoretycznie TOS zabraniają tradingu z USA

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

WIG20 v Nasdaq-100 since the release of ChatGPT. Not really reflected in broader / public sentiment towards PL equities.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

A few years ago we discovered flight. Now we've made biplanes more efficient. The key question: will we keep optimizing propellers, maybe stumble upon a jet, or see this as a step toward space? That’s what will shape the future of AI hardware.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

Bottom line: being lumped together with Yemen is not exactly great, but the Tier 2 designation should not limit the pace of AI development in Poland. Feedback welcome.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

AI diffusion regulations: a non-binding constraint for Poland?
Lots of uproar after PL got labeled as Tier 2 despite being a close ally of the US. Optics aside, it might not matter much, considering planned investments and exemptions. Some calculations below.

[Piotr Miliński @Piotr_Milinski]

*If* one of the locals somehow grew large enough to eat up the import quota (say through a government partnership), they can apply for the NVEU status. While this comes with strict requirements, it also gives the company space to purchase 320k H100 equivalents.