@JohnDWindsor 2. Tariffs overruled: likely a quick rip fueled by retail (but also encouraged by institutions) which all occurs in a day or two at longest before institutional selloff and the bottom drops out.
I’m out of my league here but am I on the right track?
@JohnDWindsor Here trying to dissect your last couple of tweets couple with everything you’ve said in the last 4 months.
1. Tariffs upheld: slight dip for a day followed by continual trickle up based on rate cut optimism till we eventually hit the end of the liquidity cycle.
2. (Cont.)
U are going to cry this weekend when u see Bitcoin flying back up...
Rates and dxy are still accomodative.
A lot of you guys really think Powell has no reasons to cut. He does.... The consumer is def struggling even if we see enterprise growth... It's not taht cut and dry. Unemployment may be good but wage growth AINT.
Tbf I lean towards no cut for the sake of the country... It would enable us to get control of the cpi even further. 10 year yields would absolutely drift down.
But always remember... It's the consumer that votes. Not companies.
I've been at my desk long enough to know rule number 1:
Do NOT fight the fed...
Guess what rule number 2 is...
DO NOT FIGHT THE WHITEHOUSE...
I have been saying all year... They will talk up the market with fake jobs even while slowing us down with tariffs to drag cpi to 2 and bring about CUTS.
We are here now...
P.S. - Always remember... Politics are for the weak. Just know that this man broke the bank of England and he is on our side.
If you woke up today and:
-Have a job where you can make money
-Have your health
-Can call both your parents
-Have access to food & water
-Can go move your body & sweat
It's a good day regardless of what your brain is trying to tell you.
@StephenM The libertarian candidate believed in transing kids. Libertarians wholly reject that. That is not the “Rand platform”. Trump came to the libertarian convention and made us promises. Being responsible with our money was one of them, and we are holding him accountable.