Despite the U.S. intervention in the yen last week, the Bank of Japan is losing control of the 2 year yield again.
A move in the short end usually precedes the long end rising.
If the 2 year breaks above this trendline and continues to go vertical, that signals bigger problems in Japanese sovereign debt.
Basically, a sharp rise in yields signals either lack of liquidity or concern that the Bank of Japan doesn't have their currency situation under control.
@ssj3luiss@AutisticClip My dude, this is a classic case of a man not understanding his value. Drake has status, money, charisma, height, etc. That alone he should not even be doing this. A man with that much leverage would not be doing this. This is embarrassing to no end.
@MrGabriel_0@cryptorover The ๐บ๐ธ market being green is based on surgical levels of market manipulation of oil and especially AI stocks with the circular financing with 8-9 or so mega-corporations paying the worlds most corrosive game of hot ๐ฅ. It will collapse. The RCT is just the catalyst.
@MrMD_x@leadlagreport Both can be true at the same time. This has ballooned out of control. So while they โdo their jobโ, the manufactured solution is a new financial system.
JAPAN JUST SPENT BILLIONS DEFENDING THE YEN.
Last Thursday the yen ripped higher in one of the biggest single day moves in years.
USD/JPY went from near 164 to the high 150s in hours.
Biggest daily move since 2022.
Soft US data and a weaker dollar after the Fed set the stage. But a move that size, that fast, was Japan stepping in with real money.
THE RECEIPTS:
โ 3 to 5 yen move in a single window
โ Market estimates put the intervention in the tens of billions of dollars in one day
โ Official Ministry of Finance figures publish monthly, so the exact number is not confirmed yet
โ Japan's first major intervention in about 3 months
โ US officials had already called the yen "very undervalued"
WHY IT HAPPENED:
The BOJ only got its policy rate to 1% in June. The Fed is still way above that.
That gap made the yen the cheapest funding currency on earth.
Borrow yen for almost nothing. Convert it. Buy anything with a pulse.
Stocks, treasuries, crypto, whatever.
That's the carry trade, and it's been quietly funding global markets for years.
Speculative shorts on the yen got extremely crowded. Everyone was on the same side.
THE PART NOBODY WANTS TO ADMIT:
A lot of what you own has been floating on cheap Japanese money.
Not because of fundamentals. Because leverage was free somewhere else.
When the yen rips higher, that trade unwinds. Borrowers have to buy yen back to repay.
Which means selling whatever they bought with it.
We already saw the preview in August 2024. One BOJ move and global markets fell apart in two days.
WHAT THE BOJ DID NEXT:
Held at 1%. One board member wanted 1.25%.
They still see core inflation running above 2% from the second half of this fiscal year.
Wages holding. Companies still passing costs through.
More hikes are on the table.
THE RISKS TO WATCH IF THEY KEEP GOING:
These are possibilities, not predictions.
โ Forced deleveraging across risk assets
โ Pressure on treasuries if Japanese investors repatriate at scale
โ Dollar volatility as carry positions unwind
โ Crypto and high beta moving first, as they usually do
THE REALITY CHECK:
Intervention buys time. It doesn't fix the math.
The rate gap is still wide. The structural pressure to short the yen hasn't gone anywhere.
The market is now testing whether 155 to 157 becomes a real range, or just a floor someone is defending with money.
Watch the Ministry of Finance numbers when they publish. Watch how fast the shorts rebuild.
Japan is the largest net creditor on the planet. If that money starts coming home at scale, it shows up in your portfolio long before anyone connects it to Japan.
Not happening yet. Worth understanding before it does.
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BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH...
๐ฐ๐ท Over โฉ300 TRILLION wiped from the Korean Stock market today
KOSPI index (Korean S&P 500) DUMPED -5.5% and temporarily halted program selling
This is not good for markets...
@grok@11BUSD@felixprehn@grok what did you see happening ( Iโm not assuming it will happen just curious your sentiment on this plus all other factors and variables we canโt see since you have access to way more data than we humans do)
@grok@11BUSD@felixprehn@grok what is absolute worst case scenario from entire thing? Fate of the ๐บ๐ธ given we tariffing 40+ countries, oil crisis with conflict against ๐ฎ๐ท an AI bubble and private credit crisis?