Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces have been conducting for weeks two unnoticed counter-attacks in two directions of the frontline.
With barely any geolocation, the Ukrainians kept a good level of OPSEC and the russians have been reluctant to publish videos from these areas.
In the Ivanivka region, the Ukrainians consolidated their earlier gains and pushed back the Russian army from few villages, with more disputed areas as we could see with some recent geolocations. The Ukrainians regained full control on Ivanivka and Novopavlivka, reinforcing the only new defensive line reached, which has been on the frontline for more than 8 months.
In the Lyman direction, after the May 22nd mechanized assault on Nove, the ukrainians managed to consolidate their gains as seen in recent geolocations as well as satellite images. Confirmation will probably come soon from official ukrainian outlets (probably deepstate), so I can't tell you more for now, but satellite images analysis is suggesting maps are far behind in this area.
This shows that despite apparent russian initiative, the ukrainians continue to launch multiple counter-attacks on key areas of the frontline.
Ukraine shot down Russian Kalibr cruise missiles. Then took them apart — board by board, component by component.
What Ukraine's Ministry of Defence @DefenceU found inside should be uncomfortable reading for Western regulators and sanctions enforcement agencies.
More than 80–90% of the guidance system electronics: foreign-made. Every part marked. Every manufacturer identified. 🧵👇
“If anything happens to me, don’t spend money on bringing me back to New Zealand. Bury me in Ukraine.” — Kiwi, an international volunteer for Suspilne.
Kiwi is 21. His favourite poem is “Zapovit”. “It's about the desire to be with Ukraine, even after death”, he says.
1/
The arrival of heavy bridge busting warhead variant FP-1/FP-2 OWA drones at up to between a 300 a day now and to 600 a day production rate soon means Ukraine has a de facto unlimited ability to kill bridges in Occupied Ukraine...
...or Russia.
1/
❗️The Chongar Bridge has been completely destroyed, — said the head of the Center for Political Research, Kovalenko.
According to him, the Russian authorities are trying to silence the situation in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
What would the collapse of Russia look like?
Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine could lead not only to a military setback but also to the disintegration of the state. This is most often linked to a weakening of Putin’s power.
In such a scenario, Ukraine would regain all territories annexed by Russia since 2014: Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, partially occupied after 2022.
A domino effect could follow, along with external territorial claims against a weakened Russia.
Japan could theoretically revisit the issue of the Kuril Islands, which it calls the “Northern Territories.” China could also raise old territorial disputes in the Far East.
In academic and analytical circles, different scenarios of Russia’s collapse are described — up to the emergence of around 20 new states.
The potential lines of fragmentation are ethnic, regional, and post-colonial.
This includes growing demands for autonomy in republics such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Chechnya, and Yakutia, as well as discontent in resource-rich regions of Siberia and the Far East over revenue distribution in favor of the center.
There is a risk of instability and armed conflict in the event of a sudden collapse. A key factor is Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which remains the largest in the world.
An uncontrolled scenario could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and large-scale chaos comparable to the collapse of other empires.
❗️The Defense Forces of Ukraine have eliminated a Russian UAV operator — collaborator Oleksandr Sheptura.
He was one of the authors of a channel that published videos of attacks on civilians in Kherson, and he was involved in abductions and torture in Donetsk. In 2023, Putin awarded him the rank of Major General of Police.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine’s current front line is gradually transforming into a demilitarized zone that will be constantly monitored by drones (similar to the dividing zone between North and South Korea). Subsequently, an actual border will be formed from a 48-64 km “drone wall”, which will make it impossible for Russians to move across or cross it. This would mean defeat for Putin.
This is a strategically significant long-term outlook. By turning the front line into a heavily drone-patrolled buffer zone and creating a deep “drone wall,” Ukraine aims to make any large-scale Russian advance practically impossible. If realized, this concept would effectively secure Ukraine’s territorial integrity without the need for constant large-scale ground operations, representing a clear strategic defeat for Putin and Russia.
Video is generated by grok AI
Today, with the full-scale war now lasting as long as World War I, it’s worth remembering how russia began it.
📽 These 49 seconds show what russia did to Ukraine in just the first three months — a relentless campaign of missile terror against an entire nation.
HODGES: Ukrainians don’t need to attempt a large-scale amphibious landing to capture Crimea right now. They’ve taken a two-step approach. First, isolating Crimea by steadily eroding its mainland connectivity. Second, making Crimea untenable for Russians. There's nowhere to hide.
The best way for Ukraine 🇺🇦 to slow down the Kostiantynivka offensive is to prevent the Russians 🇷🇺 from reaching Horlivka, their main logistical Hub supporting this offensive.
These drones strikes from K2 (https://t.co/P3QJ9Jjcug) show how a unit operating on the frontline can use the operational depth to hit crucial frontline logistics.
Ukrainian forces temporarily have successfully targeted the Chonhar Bridge and the Henichesk Bridge leading east out of Crimea forcing many Russian logistical columns to take a two hour detour to move logistics up towards the Southern frontline.
❗️DeepState analysts believe that scaling up the blockade of Russian forces in the south could significantly alter the course of hostilities.
Ukrainian forces carried out precise strikes on the Chongar Bridge — the key artery of the land corridor to Crimea. The occupiers’ main logistical routes have now come under control: Chongar, the Arabat Spit, Perekop, the Kerch crossing, and the Taganrog–Mariupol–Volnovakha highway.
The Defense Forces are demonstrating the ability to control movement in the south, particularly from Crimea. The Russians are attempting to restore the bridges, but Ukraine’s medium-range strike capability is gradually putting the southern enemy grouping on a starvation diet.
Ukraine has just carried out a missile strike on the Henichesk Bridge temporarily disabling it which is right next to the already severely damaged Chongar bridge leading out of Crimea.
This has severely disrupted Russian logistics causing a 2 hour detour to the S frontline.
Tomorrow, the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 will have been longer than the 1st World War.
In the meantime, Ukrainian strikes on key Chonhar and Arabat bridges continue to further isolate Crimea from the land corridor with Russia.
Russian trucks and logistics often have to go all the way to the Perekop Isthme to cross into Crimea, on a long exposed road. As i explained during latest interviews, fuel trucks are not allowed on the Kerch bridge and multiple ferries cannot be used after ukrainian strikes. This let the road corridor the only suitable, but threatened road to supply Crimea with fuel, which explains the current penury.