Paul Brenton

| FantasyPros NFL Expert
| 18-Time FFPC Dynasty Winner
| No hype. No mandates
| Proven data. Better decisions

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

@teamhairjordan @DynastyDadFF As I said. I wasn’t commenting on Nix specifically.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

@DynastyDadFF I wasn’t replying to Nix. Was replying your original post about finding the next Drake Maye in the same way everyone was trying to find the next CJ Stroud. Also there is a very strong argue that if you take QB in isolation, they are won by drafting elite in round 3 or 4.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

@AustinAbbott Every year is a Josh Downs year. One day people will realise it isn’t.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

77% of dynasty trades happen in the offseason.

Most dynasty managers make their biggest roster decisions before Week 1.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

42.53% of all in-season FFPC dynasty trades happen on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dynasty managers become most active immediately after weekly results, waivers and changing roster priorities.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

FFPC dynasty leagues have average 31.76 trades per league per year since 2022.

Dynasty managers who stay flexible and engaged usually get better opportunities than managers who build rigid rosters or become too passive.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

March produces nearly one quarter of all FFPC dynasty trades.

Roster cutdown pressure creates one of the best buying and selling windows of the dynasty calendar.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

Over 1/3 of all in-season FFPC dynasty trades happen in November.

The closer managers get to the trade deadline, the harder it becomes to avoid choosing between contending and rebuilding.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

Keeping half his TDs (more sustainable) with the same level of receptions & yards, gets him to 14.36 PPG which is a TE6 return. But you’re already paying for that fantasy output before he has proven he can get their & do it consistently. You don’t win leagues by paying for ceiling outcomes.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

Dynasty managers often treat projection as safer than proven fantasy production.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

His PPG of all tight ends since 2021 is 9.89. That is -4.32 PPG behind what the TE6 has historically produced. He may get there. His production last year was largely TD dependent at an unsustainable rate. Take the TDs away and his PPG last year was 12.11, still short of the 14.21 xPPG from the TE6

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

On average, it takes a bottom-four dynasty team 1.9 seasons to become a top-four team.

Most dynasty turnarounds take longer than managers want to believe.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

@FourPatsDynasty Possibly a slow ramp up. In dynasty he is going as TE15 in startups despite being the TE3 in PPG since 2021. His actual production is +9.06 PPG ahead of what you got 2021-2025 from the TE15. That’s huge.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

George Kittle is still producing elite fantasy points. The dynasty market just values projection more aggressively than proven production.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

@bhaarru I’m saying that in dynasty he is priced like he is already one of the best at the position when the reality is, his overall production is far from it.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

George Kittle is being priced as the TE15 in dynasty startups.

Tucker Kraft is being priced as the TE6.

One has been an elite fantasy points scorer for years.

One is mostly being priced on projection hype.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

It’s that time of year in fantasy football.

[Paul Brenton @PointsOverHype]

It’s easy to forget what makes a good dynasty trade target.

Usually it’s either:

1. Better fantasy production than the market price suggests.

or

2. A realistic path to gaining value without needing a perfect outcome.