Chase Bowes

Founder & Principal | Bowes Strategy & Analytics
Political Analyst/Campaign Consultant

98% forecasting accuracy over 1,500+ races since 2022

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

Few things about me:
1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans
2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant
3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@RealSKeshel Thank you... I personally don't agree with everything but I remove personal bias and make it about the data. This is a snapshot in time, and I expect it to tighten as November gets closer

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

I understand being skeptical about my House forecast, but this was entirely data driven and will change as November comes. I've been forecasting for several cycles and have been incredibly accurate. Check out my prior work here: https://t.co/gqWcVeiGee

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@Chrystar226 Thanks for the support! I've been saying the same thing since November 6th, 2024

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

Few things about me:
1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans
2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant
3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@dcon2012 Good thing I'm not a pollster!

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@RedBowTie2020 Exactly!! The party won't do it, so the outcome of this election is up to We the People!

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

U.S. House Forecast: July 2026
🔵DEMS: 225 Seats (+10)
🔴GOP: 210 Seats (-9)
🟣IND: 0 Seats (-1)

Flips in thread below

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@rmacc0527 It can and will change, but it depends on GOP enthusiasm. If the @Republicans hit affordability hard, the Iran war ends and gas prices go down, Republicans will be in a much stronger position than presently..

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@ExSanFran2010 This isn't a poll, its a data-driven forecast based on various data points. I'm a political analyst, not a polling firm

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@FlyrockMK18 Tilt Republican

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@JackMKlosek Posting that tomorrow, stay tuned!

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@Eddie46973324 I'm not a pollster, I'm a political analyst and I've been forecasting elections for 6 years, with a 98% overall accuracy within a ±2% MOE.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@jennifer_zilla Redistricting is all settled and I think Republicans net 4-7 seats with it. There's a path for more but it depends on how Hispanic votes sway.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@2Gremlins_Iluv @Shawn_Farash Bro how long will it take for you to process I'm not a pollster? I'm an independent data analyst with my own models based on a long list of fundamentals. If you don't like what you see then feel free to leave

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@BrianTerry180 @Shawn_Farash My 2024 forecasts were:
President: 51/51
House: 222-213 margin, 427/435
Senate: 52-48 margin, 33/34, missed PA
Governors: 11/11

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@realTomPappert Right? I've seen so many forecasts with Dems winning north of 230 seats. I think they max out at upper 220s. Still time for things to change as November gets closer

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@cubsfan858 ~R+8-9, similar performance to 2024 possibly. Could change when I have more data.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@KirkMunsch My #1 goal is pushing out my personal bias. I'm a realist and don't sugarcoat the data. I know its not what we like to see but it's reality at the moment

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@KupoBeer Stay tuned, shooting for today or tomorrow!

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@HollyAndTheIvy4 @Shawn_Farash Exactly. We can't be overconfident and let our voters stay home on election day. Like it or not, the House is in play, and we have to fight like we're 10 points down.

[Chase Bowes @PolPredictions]

@HollyAndTheIvy4 Some of these are certainly surprising and unwelcome, but I guarantee its 100% data-driven on a model I've been developing for 2 years.

The best thing we can do is work even harder than we did in 2024. Go knock doors, make phone calls, and bring your friends out to vote!