Polarizer Trading

Welcome to the Labyrinth!
Polarizing stock market professional for 35+ years | True Opinion | Enlightenment instead of harmony |
No investment advice! |

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@Schuldensuehner If I count it right, 3-4 yr range backwards from today leads to 2023-22.
So the 'LOWER END' of fantasies should be @ PEs of 19 to 20.5 and not at today's levels of 23.3.

It seems nice to have recessionary high PEs in a 10y PE-average of any kind (2020/21), but irrelevant.
$spx

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Investors in #sneaker #stocks are still stuck in the #quarterfinales of the #soccer #US #worldcup.
But looking fwd, for the #semifinales #Nike has a much bigger chance than #Adidas to place a team in the very true #final for the championship.
Swap $ADS in $nke.
$spx $dax40 #etfs

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

As of now, Friday 10, July, before todays #soccer match Spain (ESP) vs. Belgium (BEL), the probability for #Nike to have TWO teams in the final for the #worldcup is higher than the probability for #Adidas to have just one team in it.
$ADS @€180 should be swapped into $nke @43.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

https://t.co/GhcQ2Oem9g

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@StockMKTNewz #nok #Nokia although now a part of a forming #AI #bubble is nowhere near an all-time high.
Experiences are luring down the road for young ladies and young men as #investors in $spx and $ndx. #Nasdaq $eur $usd $jpy #stocks #etfs

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

In the last few days you could see price spikes in $avgo $sndk $arm $amd et al.

They all seem to be cannibalizing $nvda @$212.5 and its #chip biz.

Nevertheless the illusion ran for the total inflation of the whole AI-cake while in reality this is shrinking for #Nvidia.

$ndx

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

You did not see new highs in the $ark $etf and only for a few days in the $arkq.

Even more interesting, the NYFANG Index at above 17K today clearly has reached a ceiling and will be falling back towards the 15K area.

Don't get sucked into $ndx $nvda #techs $spx. $usd $jpy $eur

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@brewmarkets What a wise man does in the beginning, a fool does in the end.

At 7364 in $spx and at 28670 in $ndx #Futures (actual contracts) it is a time to SELL your $etfs, not buy them.

$djt $rtx $usd $jpy $eur $vix $oil

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@SquawkCNBC @ptj_official Good luck with that thesis. Paul Tudor Jones is going to Trump you now.

$spx $ndx $dji $vix $etfs $usd $oil

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Once Victor Sperandeo 'Trader Vic' famously wrote in his book 'Methods of a Wall Street Master':

'Never go long on politicians.'

If it is the SOXX Index ( $soxq) or $dji or $spx o $ndx you are very much at risk to find it out now.
Now.

$usd $jpy $eur $etf $nvda $oil $wsj $ark

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@positivityofx Sure, the beaver was even causing a traffic jam in front of him.

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@Mr_Derivatives You are still living in dream land.

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

@Microinteracti1 This is as much fun as having seen the CEO of $pltr pointing with a samurai sword towards the short sellers of the stock back then, when it still was trading @~$190. Thereafter it went to $127.
Hubris seldom pays.
$usd $eur $ndx $vix $jpy $gld $slv $dji $spx $dax #DAX40

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

$tsla @~$407.20 had been one of the main beneficiaries of the protectionist measure of #US #tariffs due to a lack of competitiveness. Since these tariffs are by ruling of the US Supreme Court illegal, stay away from #Tesla #stocks.
$ndx $spx $vix #trade #auto #car $bmw $vow $eur

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

The rally in $rut Russel-2000 and $dji #stocks is based on shielding foreign competition away from #US producers. US #import #tariffs should have done the trick. But the story get's some cracks with today's ruling of the highest US court against this protectionist measures.
$usd

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Still true with #Kering $ker down @€~289 and together with other #luxury #stocks will that owner of #Gucci and other great #brands still go a bit lower.
Look out for a reversal in #Japanese #Yen as soon as #BOJ starts to really think.
$jpy #Japanese #yields #debt
#stoxx $eur

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

In #Kering #luxury #stocks @~€313 you should be out now from this owner of #Gucci and other great #brands.
$jpy is too weak and the new #Japanese PM is on a lunatic mission with the idea that higher #debt and too low #yields could reduce #inflation.
Like a #BOJ pipe dream. $usd

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Today at prices for the #stocks of #Adidas $ads @€165.5 versus the much better performing #Puma $pum @€24.2 the ratio already came down to 6.8 and will still go lower. Both are great #sneakers and #apparel makers in a changing environment. Good for profits! $ker $eur $dax #mdax

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

I apologize for a typing error in one of my yd's tweets about #Puma.
Nevertheless I stick to my idea that with patience and a 18 mths horizon yd's ratio of 8:1 between $ads #Adidas and $pum will go towards 6 or even 5.
In Aug '23 it stood 3 with $ads @€182 and $pum @€65.
$mdax

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Still true @ €24.20 for #Puma $pum #stocks in a great ongoing turnaround story. Much undervalued by morons.
#mdax $dax #Germany #sneakers

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

#Sneakers and #sport clothing maker #Puma saw its highs @~€115.4 during the Covid-19 #fitness bubble, on Nov 19. '21.
Over dozens of bursting bubbles statistically they lose on avg. -83% from the top.
For $pum remaining 17% = €19.62
The #stocks @ $eur 20 are a buy.
$mdax $dax

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

The market cap of the #sneakers maker #Puma at a price of the #stocks is roughly €3 b. At a projected minus in sales of 10-15% for '25 Puma's sales will be ~ €7.8 to 8 b.
So @€20.09 for $pum you can buy a major #sports brand for ~38% price to sales ratio.
$mdax $dax $eur $jpy

[Polarizer Trading @PolarizerTrader]

Don't sleep. $pltr #Palantir #stocks trading down towards $180.80 in a fast fashion will see the $152 level where the 200d MVA line sits.
$ndx $spx #techs