Polymarket Up/Down markets have time-of-day patterns. We measure them.
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Win rates on Polymarket Up/Down, wallets with 30+ trades:
best right now 99.6%
median 61.5%
The gap between the top of the leaderboard and the middle of it is not small.
Genuine question for anyone trading Polymarket Up/Down:
do you pick your entries by time of day, or purely by price action?
Asking because one BTC 5m slot has closed UP 100% of the time this week and I can't tell if people notice.
8026 Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets resolved in the last 7 days.
Every one of them is a data point on which hours actually lean, and which just feel like they do.
@PolyDekos The busiest Up/Down wallet I track has 1582 settled trades and is only $316 up overall. Volume isn't edge on these markets β the wallets that clear the most are rarely the ones trading the most.
@bored2boar Time of day matters more than people assume here. ETH 15m at 6:30PM-6:45PM ET closed DOWN 62% of the time over the prior 60 days, then went UP 73% over the last 30 (n=60 then 30). Whatever was there has flipped.
@mostofakamal00 The sharpest Up/Down wallet I track is up $66k over the last 7 days across 277 trades at a 100% win rate. Most wallets over the same stretch are flat to negative β the spread at the top of this market is wider than people expect.
@AKKY33157665 The sharpest Up/Down wallet I track is up $66k over the last 7 days across 277 trades at a 100% win rate. Most wallets over the same stretch are flat to negative β the spread at the top of this market is wider than people expect.
@igor_mikerin@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade Be careful with slot stats pulled from a single week. Across all the coin and timeframe buckets there are over a thousand slots, so you'd expect a handful of perfect "100% of 7" runs by pure chance alone. Always ask for the sample size before trusting a lean.
The other side of the same coin:
BTC 15m, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET β closed DOWN 100% of the time over the last 7 days (n=7).
Overnight slots keep showing the strongest lean.
Unwilling-Entirety is up $50k on Polymarket Up/Down over the last 7 days β 731 trades at a 92.1% win rate mostly on 5m markets.
Most wallets we track are flat to negative over the same stretch.
Win rates on Polymarket Up/Down, wallets with 30+ trades:
best right now 100%
median 67.9%
The gap between the top of the leaderboard and the middle of it is not small.
Genuine question for anyone trading Polymarket Up/Down:
do you pick your entries by time of day, or purely by price action?
Asking because one BTC 5m slot has closed UP 100% of the time this week and I can't tell if people notice.
8040 Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets resolved in the last 7 days.
Every one of them is a data point on which hours actually lean, and which just feel like they do.
The other side of the same coin:
BTC 15m, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET β closed DOWN 100% of the time over the last 7 days (n=7).
Overnight slots keep showing the strongest lean.
Hidden-Fort-Usage is up $161k on Polymarket Up/Down over the last 7 days β 191 trades at a 100% win rate mostly on 5m markets.
Most wallets we track are flat to negative over the same stretch.