PoolCrunch

Survivor strategy built on data. Beat your pool, not the market.

Now in our 18th season of building Survivor tools, from the maker of @SurvivorGrid

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@carney259 It’s also had two weeks of double picks (3 & 6) where as the World Championship has been single each week

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

After the carnage from the Rams and Colts losses today, here are the number of entries left and the average value of each:

Circa: 1,281 ($19,529)
Grandissimo: 6 ($1,283,333)

Splash World Championship: 1,019 ($20,608)
Big Splash: 216 ($13,889)
The Wave: 164 ($3,049)
The Ripple: 169 ($592)

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@DfsSchoder @CircaSports

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

$513,333 in burned equity as we have the first ever missed pick in the history of Grandissimo 😬

[Circa Sports @CircaSports]

#CircaGrandissimo 2026 🏈🏆 Week 6 Selections
📄: https://t.co/rBQZWwrad0

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports The standings and pick distribution update on our site as soon as the PDF releases. Here you can explore the pick distribution of the players with the most entries left https://t.co/7M8UuVadms

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports Four of the eleven players left with 10 entries went all in on a team this week: 3 Rams, 1 Colts

Here’s the EV breakdown

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@SuperBookNV Pretty tight range of EVs on most picks, and one entry went with CAR!

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports The standings on our site update within a minute of the PDF release each week. See who picked who: https://t.co/wWpuZo8W6F

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports New England is the only negative EV pick in Grandissimo this week

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

Pick percentage rankings were pretty consistent this week across @splashsports four big contests

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

This is a great point that many overlook. And even those who do think about it may not understand why it matters. Since all teams' pick percentages are adjusted by the same relative amount, what changes?

Expected Value is what can change. Teams that were moderately picked and become chalky will affect EV differently than a low-owned team moving by the same relative amount.

You can see a real-life example of that in tonight's SuperContest Survivor picks. Before Dallas played, the single New England picker had the lowest EV (other than the Cowboys), but with the pool now down to 16 entries, it has become a slightly higher EV than all other picks.

[David Baker @audavidb]

The pctgs guessed and released in Survivor tonight mean nothing at face value. Effective pct is all that matter. This is a new week starting tomorrow. If Dallas pct is 33.3 pct for instance the numbers you see, need to have 33.3 pct added to each teams pct. So if you chose Houston thinking they will be 24 pct that’s actually picking a team into 32 pct own. Or more if Dallas is higher owned.

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports See who is still alive https://t.co/wWpuZo8W6F

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports The 15 alive after Thursday's result knocking out 9 split up their pretty evenly, resulting in similar Live EV for each

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@CircaSports 42.8% on the Cowboys leading to some wild Live EVs this week

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

@SuperBookNV Some very large Live EVs with the Cowboys going down on Thursday night https://t.co/1pqkSL9tsu

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

SuperContest Survivor went very heavy on Dallas this week @SuperBookNV

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

SuperContest Survivor went very heavy on Dallas this week @SuperBookNV

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

Epigskin and a couple others are bigger in terms of total prize pool (Walker is the biggest commissioner pool at $1.125M). We currently publicly track just the four big contests hosted my Splash themselves, but by next week will have an update where users can import the standings from any Splash pool via the CSV they now provide

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

Dallas TNF pick numbers for the four big @splashsports Survivor Contests

World Championship: 37.8%
Big Splash: 41.9%
Wave: 42.1%
Ripple: 40.0%

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

A player with 87 entries still alive in the World Championship put them all on the Cowboys tonight.

[PoolCrunch @PoolCrunch]

Dallas TNF pick numbers for the four big @splashsports Survivor Contests

World Championship: 37.8%
Big Splash: 41.9%
Wave: 42.1%
Ripple: 40.0%