Andrew Poole

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@christian_west @Justin_Br0nk @PhillipsPOBrien Probably some innovative kind of special status would be needed for the eastern regions, along with broader political protections for Russian language and culture throughout Ukraine (just as minorities have protected rights in many countries)

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@christian_west @Justin_Br0nk @PhillipsPOBrien Even within Nato Turkey is a pretty good model. Settlement in Ukraine should support Ukraine's right to exist and defend itself (but not to join Nato) but also recognise that Russian speakers have been subject to discrimination by the Ukrainian government and should not have been

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@xsspirito @con643641 @shashj @trampolinest What a constructive contribution!

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@christian_west @Justin_Br0nk @PhillipsPOBrien How do you imagine the US gets away with doing whatever the fuck it wants? Force of arms does, has always, and will always confer a certain ability to intervene (and to deter intervention against), and small powers have always been liable to intervention by larger powers.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@christian_west @Justin_Br0nk @PhillipsPOBrien It's not about supporting or not supporting such an order, it's about understanding that escalating this into a nuclear war, or even a wider conventional war, is not going to put these things right and is in fact going to make things orders of magnitude worse.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@con643641 @Andrew88536972 @shashj @trampolinest All manner of countries want all manner of other countries to go away / leave them alone / not exist, etc. Often the feeling is mutual. Doesn't mean that it can necessarily happen. We have to operate in the realm of the possible not the idealistically unrealistic.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@con643641 @Andrew88536972 @shashj @trampolinest Finland is now, 80 years later, joining Nato. But by current Ukrainian logic the 80 years in between should have been filled with Russia repeatedly regrouping in Karelia and launching fresh attempts on Helsinki.

Russia has 150m people and 6000 nuclear warheads. It is not weak.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@con643641 @Andrew88536972 @shashj @trampolinest Finland fought back but didn't push them completely out, and then there was a lasting peace. Ukraine has fought back but not pushed them completely out, and yet any settlement of the war which doesn't push them completely out will apparently make a lasting peace impossible?

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@con643641 @Andrew88536972 @shashj @trampolinest Rather like the majority of countries in the world today, who maintain normal well-functioning relations with Russia and somehow don't find themselves being threatened or their land being stolen.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@con643641 @Andrew88536972 @shashj @trampolinest Yes the Finland that had already had large chunks of land stolen before the start of the cold war and then adopted a neutral and neighbourly stance and somehow didn't have any further chunks of land stolen.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@andriusdi @Hendrix25Mike @shashj @trampolinest Well I hope you are right.

However I don't think Russia values its relations with China, India etc more than it values avoiding a total humiliation.

Those relations will restrain it up to a point, but if it really ends up in the corner they will no longer be able to.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@Andrew88536972 @con643641 @shashj @trampolinest former members of the Russian elite, and would be shared by the US or any other historical great power if the situation was reversed. Simplifications are useful for making a point but only if there is enough substance to the comparison.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@Andrew88536972 @con643641 @shashj @trampolinest Putin is expansionist in Russian-speaking parts of the post soviet space in certain circumstances. Not sure there's much evidence of any more than that or of genocidal intentions. Putin's views on unacceptability of Nato actions on Russia's borders are shared by many current and

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@andriusdi @Hendrix25Mike @shashj @trampolinest Why is the ace out of the question? I see absolutely no reason to believe that.

Just because we may wish that it is, and that it may be rather inconvenient for our intended strategy and actions if it isn't, doesn't mean that it actually is.

Wishful thinking is not a strategy.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@a7_FIN_SWE @ptaipale @shashj @trampolinest And if pushing them out of Ukraine, all of it, will cause the end of civilisation ?

Nuclear powers cannot defeat each other, they can only co-exist. That understanding is the only reason that civilisation has been able to survive in the nuclear age.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@a7_FIN_SWE @ptaipale @shashj @trampolinest Also even if they do it seems entirely probable that they would replace him with someone worse.

[Andrew Poole @Poole_Andrew1]

@a7_FIN_SWE @ptaipale @shashj @trampolinest He has retreated from some red red lines but there will come a point, somewhere between here and humiliation, when he will stop doing so.

It is possible that the elite will depose Putin, but it doesn't seem likely, and we cannot be relying on that as our only safe exit.