Portugal Elects

Portuguese poll aggregation ⭑ Election analysis ⭑ Political news

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POLL: Presidential election, Aximage:

Ventura (Chega): 19.4%
Gouveia e Melo (Ind): 18.7%
Marques Mendes (PPD/PSD): 15.9%
Seguro (PS): 14.8%
Cotrim (IL): 9.5%
Martins (BE): 3.9%
Filipe (PCP): 2.1%
Pinto (Livre): 1.5%

Runoff: Ventura & Gouveia e Melo

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POLL: Presidential election, ICS/ISCTE:

Gouveia e Melo (Ind): 18%
Ventura (Chega): 18%
Marques Mendes (PPD/PSD): 16%
Seguro (PS): 10%
Cotrim (IL): 3%
Filipe (PCP): 2%
Martins (BE): 1%

Runoff: Gouveia e Melo & Ventura

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POLL: Presidential election, Intercampus:

Marques Mendes (PPD/PSD): 16.4%
Ventura (Chega): 15.9%
Gouveia e Melo (Ind): 15.5%
Cotrim (IL): 11.5%
Seguro (PS): 11.1%
Martins (BE): 4.3%
Filipe (PCP): 3.8%
Pinto (Livre): 1.6%

Runoff: Marques Mendes & Ventura

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POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, Portugal Elects Coligómetro Majority coalitions:

AD-PS: 136
AD-CH: 126

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POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus:

AD: 26.3% (-3,6)
PS: 23.6% (+1,8)
CH: 20.2% (-1,5)
L: 9.9 (+2,5)
IL: 7.3% (-1,1)
CDU: 4% (+0,6)
PAN: 3.3% (-0,6)
BE: 2.8% (+1)

+/- vs.5-15 jun. 2025

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POLL: Legislative election, Intercampus, seat projection:

AD: 73
PS: 63
CH: 53
L: 19
IL: 12
CDU: 6
PAN: 2
BE: 2

*projection by PortugalElects

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POLL: Presidential election, Intercampus:

Gouveia e Melo: 20.6%
Marques Mendes (PPD/PSD): 17.2%
Seguro (PS): 16.5%
Ventura (CH): 10.6%
Cotrim de Figueiredo (IL)*: 6.8%
Sampaio da Nóvoa*: 4.1%
Filipe (PCP): 3.8%
Mortágua (BE)*: 3.6%

*undeclared candidacies

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No distrito de Setúbal, devido à sobrevalorização do PS, havia ainda uma distância superior a 3% favorável ao mesmo. Ainda em Santarém o tossup seria apenas entre Chega e AD, com tendência de vitória para o Chega. (7/7)

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Uma reflexão sobre os nossos dados na noite eleitoral:

Antes da nossa reflexão queríamos deixar explícito que a nossa página apenas faz uma análise amadora dos dados apresentados pelas sondagens, não apresentamos uma análise profissional com tratamento de dados científico. (1/7)

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Sendo assim, a nossa estimativa revista de vitória para o distrito Beja passaria a tossup entre PS e Chega, com tendência mínima de vitória para o PS, sendo que a tendência de vitória no tossup entre os mesmo no distrito de Portalegre passaria para o Chega. (6/7)

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Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) has called a leadership election for his party, of which he will not be a candidate.

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PS (S&D) overtakes Chega (PfE) in the official vote count. #bbtvi

source: https://t.co/mvQYz8glgn

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JPP (RE) has entered parliament for the first time, electing a member for Madeira. #eleicoes2025

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Chega (PfE) currently leads in the Faro, Portalegre, Setúbal and Lisbon districts. #eleicoes2025

source: https://t.co/mvQYz8glgn

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Chega (PfE) surpasses PS (S&D) in the official counting. #eleicoes2025

source: https://t.co/mvQYz8glgn

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FORECAST: Legislative election, PortugalElects:

AD: 29.7%-32.5%
PS: 26.3%-30.1%
CH: 17.6%-22.8%
IL: 5.4-6.9%
L: 3.6%-4.7%
CDU: 2.3%-3.6%
BE: 1.7%-2.6%
PAN: 0.9%-1.8%

#eleicoes2025