J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research

Deep-dive investment research on small & micro caps. Every number verified against primary sources, no hype.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

The Oncology Institute ( $TOI / $STLN )

Now available: A comprehensive 22-chapter fundamental investment report on The Oncology Institute, published ahead of the company's Q2 2026 earnings report.

Full report: https://t.co/ENAqvXiRd0

The report examines the company's evolution from its 2021 SPAC transaction to an integrated value-based oncology platform, covering the OrbiMed refinancing, Specialty Pharmacy, delegated care, Florida expansion, the M33 overhang, financial performance, and valuation.

Published on the same day the company begins trading under its new Nasdaq ticker, $STLN.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

Starling Oncology $STLN — Q2 2026 Thesis Scorecard

https://t.co/Q1oHDYmf4k

Q2 materially strengthened the investment thesis, but the improvement was not uniform across the business.

Revenue growth and operating leverage were confirmed. Specialty Pharmacy and the broader platform strengthened. Free Cash Flow improved meaningfully, with an important working-capital caveat.

At the same time, capitation economics remain under observation and Fee-for-Service weakened.

Overall assessment: Materially Strengthened Since Q1.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

Q2 2026 Investment Thesis Update — Starling Oncology $STLN

https://t.co/QprEi6Y4Lv

Q2 provided the strongest evidence to date that the original investment thesis is beginning to translate into financial results
- Revenue +34.6% YoY
- Gross profit +~55%
- Adjusted EBITDA turned positive
- H1 FCF reached +$9.5M

Important questions remain around MLR, Patient Services margins, FFS erosion, and the durability of cash generation.

The full report revisits the investment thesis, updated valuation framework, remaining risks, and key indicators to monitor in Q3.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

@JoelFenkell Thank you Joel
I really appreciate you taking the time to read it

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

The Oncology Institute ( $TOI / $STLN )

Now available: A comprehensive 22-chapter fundamental investment report on The Oncology Institute, published ahead of the company's Q2 2026 earnings report.

Full report: https://t.co/ENAqvXiRd0

The report examines the company's evolution from its 2021 SPAC transaction to an integrated value-based oncology platform, covering the OrbiMed refinancing, Specialty Pharmacy, delegated care, Florida expansion, the M33 overhang, financial performance, and valuation.

Published on the same day the company begins trading under its new Nasdaq ticker, $STLN.

[Scott Pantoskey @pantoskey83]

$TOI (L)

the PDP plan subsidies that are ending are just for prescriptions. This compares to the MA-PD plans that bundle medical and drug coverage. TOI’s risk contracts like the Florida contract are with MA-PD plans. So there isn’t a direct impact from this decision.

that said, the big insurers run both types of plans and when you squeeze them on one side of their business they will have to tighten their operations on the other sides, including MA.

and as standalone drug plans get more expensive, it will drive more demand for MA, which provides an indirect tailwind to $TOI.

The benefits from this new rule should be felt over the coming quarters/years.

in the near term, you have the largest pure play oncology VBC company that just turned FCF positive, is growing >30% consistently, proved their model works in another state (Florida), removed the largest overhang (debt refi), is on the verge of ebitda profitability, and is trading at 0.8 EV/S on a NTM basis.

this pullback is nothing more than a momentum unwind in my eyes. This represents one of the best investing opportunities in healthcare and remains my largest position ever.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

7/7

All these developments point to a stronger balance sheet, improving fundamentals, and continued analyst confidence.

Q2 earnings on Aug. 6 are now the key catalyst to determine whether TOI can translate that progress into sustained EBITDA, free cash flow, and a re-rating.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

$TOI: Bullish news flow into Q2 earnings. (Aug. 6)
- OrbiMed refinancing ($86M debt removed)
- BTIG: Buy, $9 PT
- Lake Street: Buy, $10 PT
- B. Riley: Buy, $8 PT ("selloff disconnected from fundamentals")
- Citi bullish on oncology
- Insider bought 18,000 shares (~$95K)

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

6/7 Insider buying

10% owner Jorey Chernett purchased 18,000 shares in the open market at an average price of ~$5.27 (~$95K).

This marks another insider purchase ahead of Q2 earnings on Aug. 6.

[Rob Luna @realrobluna]

Yesterday with my man @cvpayne-The most money I have made in stocks over the last 25 years is from finding the stocks not everybody is taking about.

Here is 2 worth taking a look at. 🚀

[RisenFit @risenfit]

$TOI BUY RATINGS

PRICE TARGETS:
$7.75 to $8.00

⭐️ POTENTIAL FOR UPWARD RERATING ON:

• lower-cost outpatient settings instead of expensive hospital systems.

• The Oncology Institute, Inc. is posting impressive growth rates that are more commonly associated with growth tech. companies than with traditional healthcare services.

• one of the largest value-based oncology platforms in the U.S.

• Fastest growing segment in-house specialty pharmacy that dispenses high-cost oral cancer drugs.

[Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake]

$TOI

BTIG raises target from $7-8 after hosting an NDR. Sees the $80 mm of debt refinanced near term, growth accelerating and $TOI eventually expanding to all 50 states. $8 target is just 1x 2027E revenue, which is likely conservative ($TOI growing topline by 20-30% year with a decade+ of growth runway). They also see upward bias to numbers and call for full EBITDA inflection in Q3 2026 vs. current guidance of 2027. They, like us, are now comping $TOI to $BTSG. With M33 largely gone (no longer a form 13G filer), the R2K increasing its weighting of $TOI and the key Q2 earnings print where we expect (1) debt refi and (2) new state entrance...we see shares having substantial upside from here over the next few years.

Link to our flurry of notes: https://t.co/KZ05RQeuY5

@YetAnotherValue podcast apperance:
https://t.co/8BcVpjtRQi

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

$TOI just got an upgrade, BTIG maintains Buy and raised their price target from $7 to $8 (June 8, 2026).

Stock reacting strongly, up over 10% today with solid volume. Management highlighted strong organic revenue growth and path to positive EBITDA.
Value-based care thesis intact.

Positioned.

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

$TOI - The Demographic Tailwind

Every day, roughly 10,000 Americans turn 65.
Cancer is for the most part, a disease associated with aging, 60% of all new diagnoses occur in people aged 65 or over, and this is amplified by rising obesity (74% of adults with excess body weight), poor diet, and sedentary lifestyles.

In 2026, the U.S. is expected to see 2.1M new cancer cases, nearly 5,800 per day.

By 2040, cancer survivors are projected to reach 26.1M, with 73% aged 65+.

This matters for TOI because oncology demand is shifting directly into Medicare/Medicare Advantage populations, where payors need lower-cost, value-based care models.

More older patients. More cancer prevalence. More survivorship care. More pressure to move oncology away from high-cost hospital settings.

Demographics are the tailwind. Value-based oncology is the business model. TOI is positioned at the intersection.

Demographics + lifestyle factors = unstoppable structural demand for oncology care.

The question is not whether oncology demand grows. The question is who captures it at a lower cost.

doi: 10.1093/jnci/djae135
doi: 10.1002/1878-0261.12772
doi: 10.3322/caac.70043
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708

[J. Carlos Posadas | Investment Research @PosadasInvest]

$TOI Q2 2026 Earnings Preview (Aug 10-12), the “show-me” quarter for profitability inflection

- Revenue expected: $158M–$162M (+8.7% QoQ)
- Adj. EBITDA guidance: -$1M to +$1M, this is the key metric
- Pharmacy run-rate: >$29M/month (+78% YoY)
- Florida already profitable + major MA lives ramp starting July

Today trading at $4.59 near 52w high ($4.88) with RSI 78 (overbought).

Beat + strong H2 commentary could drive $5.40–$6.00. (TP 7.0)

Fundamentals are tracking well, Q2 is the credibility test, the market needs evidence that revenue growth is translating into Adjusted EBITDA inflection and stronger free cash flow into H2 2026