Nicholas

📈 Investing in exceptional businesses.
🎥 Former YouTube Finance creator.
💡 Building Compounder, Five Year, HelpMeMuse, and LeadSentry

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Most investors drown in market news. I read only what touches my investment thesis, stock by stock.
I built Compounder to do exactly that: one evening brief, every story matched to the thesis behind the position.
https://t.co/PF9IBIpv6T

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: California billionaires pour over $600 million into elections as they fight a proposed wealth tax

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@dannycheng2022 No pure plays. But a lot in names like $AMZN $NVDA $GOOGL etc

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Elon is very transparent on their path to 3GW this year and 10+ next year. No reason to doubt unless they miss q4. Bullish.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Macroharder and Minihard both have 220k GB300s with 800 gig nics configured for training. Gun Range will have the same. Spam (used to house Hormel products) will have ~200k GB300s, but configured for inference, so much simpler networking and less than half the fiber.

I walked the whole Colossus 2 site around midnight and again this morning.

Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Anyone else get excited when prices drop and you can go on a buying spree?

Appreciate earnings season like these - you don’t see 20-30% single day drawdowns often!

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@StockSavvyShay @Fiscal_ai Wait and see for Q4 results. That will confirm the direction here. Looking bullish though.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@adamkhootrader Love it. The selling was quite orderly and concentrated, so this def. supports that. Still aligned to bottom on election day and then rally to EOY.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

I've started accumulating $SPCX, but I don't think the market is necessarily "missing" this right now. It seems like we're entering a more "prove it" phase, and this name could trade lower closer to $100.

Their earnings call was just so insane. But Musk has a way of always telling us "whats next" - which sometimes takes much longer to realize.

They aim to turn on at least 10GW next year. And they said 3GW for this quarter. The true test IMO is to see if they actually do hit 3GW this quarter. If they do, 10GW is a given for 2027 (they'll probably raise low end guidance to 13GW), but if they miss, the stock would see an immediate correction.

I guess we're in waiting phase now until Jan 2027 earnings release.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Pausing accumulation on these 2 names as other names have come down significantly.

You can tell these 2 are close to a bottom based on the price action today and yesterday despite aggressive market selling. Still probably seen some positive catalyst to get them back on an uptrend.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Pretty much the same price. Which one outperforms from here in 1yr? $UBER vs $NFLX

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@TheLongInvest Sounds more like trading than investing

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@LiebermanAustin Wait for Wednesday. Until then maybe some chop or slightly more selling

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@ChrisCamillo I’ll test

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@ModernDayInves How can anyone even seriously post a statement like this?

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@Kalshi Dang I shouldn’t have added to $SPCX today

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@mukund You’re right. I’m not American and got the day wrong by 1 day!! 🤣

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Bottom on Monday and rally starting Tuesday? Let’s see. $SPX $QQQ

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Started deploying. Some good deals out there on good companies.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Tempted - but waiting. Capex fears again. Every earnings cycle we go through this. Give it some time to flush out - continued chop imo until midterms clear.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@wallstengine Does this make it much easier for companies in the future to build their own Neoclouds?

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

This just supports the fact that the market is so short sighted now. It’s been this way since 2021 but has only been amplified in recent years.

What this means for the patient ones though is more opportunities to buy, more volatile swings to irrational levels, and often times quicker sharper recoveries. Works for me.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

Amazing thread. And spot on - the future revenue and cash generation from AWS is hard to ignore, but the cost to get there and maintain is currently being ignored.

That being said, at a current 2.5T valuation, I think there’s relative safety in this name (assuming we hit those growth numbers). They have multiple gigantic businesses that complement each other and the current valuation imo doesn’t appreciate this at all.

[Nicholas @PositiveInvst]

@StockSavvyShay @Fiscal_ai Valuation of this as a standalone? Surely 2T?