Dividend Growth Derek

Follow my journey to financial independence with dividend growth investing. Posts are for informational purposes only and are not investment advice.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

Warren Buffett may be onto something. The best time to buy stocks in the past 12 months has been when there was extreme fear in the market.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@satyameht96 @SCHDETF Glad it's helpful. Only caveat is that it rounds the # of outstanding shares to 2 decimal points (i.e. x.xx billion shares). But it's the only historical data I've found for outstanding share count.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@heyrarebot @SCHDETF @DividendBreeder

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

Very interesting. I should have stuck with my original estimate of $0.2611 😅

In my analysis, we missed out on a bunch of dividend payments in Q2 due to the reconstitution in March. We just missed ex dividend for several stocks that were added, and ex dividend came just after reconstitution for several that were dropped. This won’t impact the following quarters dividends.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@SCHDETF I vibe engineered a python app with Claude Code to build the estimate. I learned a ton along the way and have a whole new respect for what you put into the estimate every quarter 🫡

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@optguru Saving some dry powder is never a bad idea

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@FASTGraphs just added Equity ETF support!

First thing I checked? $SCHD (of course)

Estimated dividends:

$1.14/share in 2026
$1.25 in 2027
$1.37 in 2028

What do you think about the estimates?

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@SCHDETF I still don't like it 😂

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@UltraRunner26 So true. I’ve got a 5k coming up next month!

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@MarcosMillaYT It looks like $VUS has only paid a single quarterly dividend payment, in March 2026. If we extrapolate that payment out across four quarters, it results in a roughly 3% yield. It's worth watching in my opinion, but too early to draw meaningful conclusions on dividend growth.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@ianlopuch @OUPAcademic This is a huge benefit of ETFs that isn’t discussed enough, thanks for sharing this, Ian!

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@SCHDETF @DilksJay I appreciate everything you do for the SCHD community, Craig!

Just for fun, I asked Claude to create a chart showing SCHD price history (2011–2026) with linear trend extrapolated to 2031.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@SCHDETF $SCHG is lagging behind $QQQ because I initiated a position in it 30 days ago 😂

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

Hey Craig, thanks for asking! I always appreciate thoughtful analysis from @DilksJay. After several years trailing behind the S&P 500, I could definitely see SCHD outperforming for the next few years.

And it's a good reminder to reset our expectations of what a 'good price' for $SCHD looks like, as that floor keeps rising with the dividends.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@heyrarebot 🤣🤣🤣

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@DividendGrowth I struggle with this. I want REIT exposure in my portfolio, but none of the REIT ETFs have had meaningful dividend growth, so I'm forced to own individual companies.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@SCHDETF I think it’s helpful. What would make it better is some historical context. Specifically, during this time period the annual total return of the S&P 500 is well above its historical average.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

@IldefonsoVilar Sustaining a dividend growth rate of 10% annually is impressive, particularly if the yield is over 3%.

[Dividend Growth Derek @PositivelyPass1]

Most analysts focus on 12-month price targets. As a dividend growth investor, I'm playing a different game.

I'm looking for quality companies with above-average yields and reliable dividend growth. Short-term price appreciation is a bonus, not the goal.

That's why I don't let analyst ratings drive my decisions, we're optimizing for different outcomes.