Valieram

$KSM $DOT Parachains

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

Staking was not born because users wanted it. It was first invented and then people thought putting tokens to use was a good idea.

Similarly nobody wants to work on their Web3 verified profile to become part of DAOs but someday it will seem like a very good use of one's time.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

A commoditized AI fits perfectly within a communist system, where investment is publicly funded and government-controlled. By contrast, it poses a major challenge to the American capitalist model, where private investment depends on generating adequate returns. If 99% of AI use cases become nearly free, what incentive remains for private companies to invest? Governments will continue to invest for strategic reasons, but will the U.S. adapt to this new reality quickly enough to prevent China from gaining overwhelming dominance?

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

Psychology. AI excels at persuasion. People will constantly get convinced of ideas, habits, or paths that go against what they truly want, sometimes to the point where they need constant psychological support or coaching to stay grounded. Trusted support will be needed like an “anti-malware” function, a protective layer that prevents you from getting lost or losing touch with your own life.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelPBento A major correction before Friday looks nearly impossible. It probably won't happen but if it does it's extremely dangerous, unexpected but credible at the same time (Iran or something).

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

Politics doesn't innovate or change reality. At best, it channels an already existing will. We aren't seeing professional politicians using Web3 for their own personal gain because basically nobody cares about it. More than 90% talk about Web3 was about some token price, you know it's true. Someday a new generation will come and it will be using tools to fight big tech or govt control over their life. Meanwhile it might be tempting to blame someone for how things are going but it's really not worth it.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@alshfaw Do you think DE10Y yield has broken out already? It could be relevant due to specific energy vulnerabilities in Europe.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelPBento One possible scenario now is that oil and equities rise together for a few weeks, as often happens late in the cycle. SPY could then peak a few weeks before USO.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@DarioCpx This could be far from over. There is nothing signed yet. And if something is signed this Friday it's unclear what it will be.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@GregaHorvatFX @ewforecast FOMC probably not going to spoil the party on deal week and opex week. Then the expected Iran deal signing is scheduled on a possible turning point. We'll see how it goes but it looks interesting.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelPBento It's too soon to tell, but it looks that we will have a nice week of fomo to new aths before anthing is certain. When the market movement is done the reality will come out whatever it is.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelPBento Oil and yields have been positively correlated for months on the daily timeframe. Today, that correlation seems broken, but it's highly likely that the move in yields is leading the next leg in oil. If that's the case, the selloff is just getting started.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

Another positive way to look at it is that this could accelerate the realization that some DLT infrastructure cannot be destroyed and that’s precisely where its fundamental value lies. Notice how it is precisely in a highly violent environment that this invulnerability stands out the most.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

Today reminds me of April 2 2025 tariff day. Trump waited precisely after volatility products closed at 4:15 for his surprise announcement. Today he surprised everyone at this precise time saying the US has been striking Iran. The VIX gap is probably not going to get filled tomorrow.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@AnthonyCrudele Ok, just that 100+ oil could spoil the party and given its volatility could happen in minutes. So risk could start reflecting this.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@XennialTrader Time will tell, but it might prove to be a good analogy. Not only record low volume but also low correlation. If it turns, volume, correlation and VIX go up at the same time, reverting a significant percentage of the move up.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

"Stretched by MAG7" is usualy right, but these days, if you look at it only AAPL is putting on top after another. The other ones are taking turns but ovarall sideways in the last month. Market is using advanced engineering to achieve recurring green days in indices when nothing, not even the MAG7, is justifying it. Record lows on volume and correlation is the last trick to keep the trend alive until it necessarily expires, because otherwise the market would need to close. We'll see how tame or violent is what comes next.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelPBento Waiting on yields and volatility, but oil is reclaiming this steep uptrend right now. Either rejection here or volatility spikes.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@JohnDoss1 Maybe you are right, but on the other hand the US is the most well-informed country on the Iran matter. So if the strait is not going to open those well-positioned American market participants could be the first to sell during US market hours.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

The plan may be to increase pressure on Iran to accept U.S. terms rather than seek a compromise. This approach would create a more gradual buildup of pressure on risk assets and oil prices, rather than triggering an immediate shock from "deal is done" to "kinetic". Allowing at least a few days of increasing pressure would be more consistent with how markets typically operate.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@XennialTrader 27 Feb 2026 is the last time when we had this kind of closing volume on NVDA. It was also end of month and the day before the war in Iran started. It probably won't mean a thing.

[Valieram @PrediccionsCat]

@MichaelMOTTCM So far it's a near exact copy of this Monday's premarket action, both on US futures and USOIL futures. If it continues being the case, we will have breaking news that will dump crude to 99 only to revert back to 104 after market opens.