PI

Buy and sell political futures.

PSAs:
- 95% ≠ Certainty
- Forecasts ≠ Future
- Turnout = Outcome

[PI @PredictIt]

Money in. Money out. $0.

The 5% withdrawal fee is gone. ACH deposits and withdrawals are now free — effective immediately. https://t.co/kmp2OnJmKR

#thepeoplespredictionmarket

[PI @PredictIt]

🟢 Brazil president → https://t.co/WmTsOZIFqc

🟡 Runoff margin → https://t.co/uIbOZhe7DW

[PI @PredictIt]

Polls are closed in Brazil 🇧🇷

Flávio Bolsonaro went into the day at 85¢, Lula at 18¢.

In 2022, the race was called less than three hours after polls closed. Follow the market as the count comes in.
🟢🟡

#Eleicoes2026 #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro

[PI @PredictIt]

Brazil president → https://t.co/WmTsOZIFqc
How close? The margin market → https://t.co/uIbOZhe7DW

[PI @PredictIt]

Brazil’s polls close in an hour: 4 p.m. ET, 5 p.m. in Brasília.

The electronic count moves fast. In 2022, Lula was confirmed the winner less than three hours after polls closed.

Heading into today's vote, Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula 85¢ to 18¢.

#Eleicoes2026 #BrazilVotes 🇧🇷

[PI @PredictIt]

What’s riding on 🇧🇷 Brazil’s runoff?

Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to pardon his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving 27 years for plotting a coup. Lula, 80, wants a fourth term.

🟢 Flávio 85¢
🟡 Lula 18¢

#Eleicoes2026 #Brazil #Bolsonaro #Lula

[PI @PredictIt]

Brazil president → https://t.co/WmTsOZI7AE

[PI @PredictIt]

The market felt the squeeze, too. Flávio Bolsonaro was at 86¢ a week ago. When Datafolha showed a 50%-50% tie Thursday, he slid to 76¢.

Saturday’s Datafolha had him back up two.

Traders have him back at 85¢. Lula is at 18¢.

#Eleicoes2026 #Brazil 🇧🇷 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[PI @PredictIt]

Since 1989, no candidate who trailed in 🇧🇷 Brazil’s first round has come back to win the runoff. President Lula trailed by two.

Traders have him at 18¢. The case for Lula: if the final polls are right, it’s a point or two either way.

#Eleicoes2026 #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro

[PI @PredictIt]

🟩 Brazil president → https://t.co/WmTsOZI7AE

🟡 Runoff margin → https://t.co/uIbOZhdzOo

Prices as of 6 a.m. ET.

[PI @PredictIt]

Brazil 🇧🇷 votes today: Polls say tie, traders say Flávio.

🟢 Flávio at 85¢
🟡 Lula at 18¢

Datafolha and Quaest both have right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% to President Lula’s 49%.

Polls close at 4 p.m. ET

#Eleições2026 #Brazil #Election #Lula #Bolsonaro

[PI @PredictIt]

New Poll 🚨: Abbott +4. Traders: down 16¢.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% to 45% in an Emerson College poll.

Traders have Republicans at 74¢, down from about 90¢ in late July.

#TexasGovernor #Elections #AbbottHinojosa

[PI @PredictIt]

Alaska hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1998.

Traders have Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) at 85¢ for Alaska governor. Three Republicans split the ranked-choice ballot, and Trump-backed Bernadette Wilson (R) is at 14¢, down from 24¢ on Wednesday.

#AlaskaGov #Elections

[PI @PredictIt]

Poll: Jackson +1. Traders: Bottoms.

AJC/UGA poll: Rick Jackson (R) 46%, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 45%.

Traders: Democrats at 60¢, up from 48¢ on Monday. Trump comes to Perry, Ga., on Saturday.

#GeorgiaGovernor #Elections #BottomsJackson

[PI @PredictIt]

New markets you may have missed 🎯.

Five to start with:
🏛️ Do Democrats sweep the swing-state governor races?
🍑 Georgia or 🎰 Nevada: bigger governor margin?
🐮 Talarico vs. Paxton in Denton County
🇺🇲 Trump’s RCP approval on Oct. 28
🇪🇸 Spain’s snap election

#NewMarkets

[PI @PredictIt]

Trade the Ohio governor’s race: https://t.co/S53agPg47y

How big a win? The margin market: https://t.co/k3lWb5ADiR

Price as of 9 a.m. ET.

[PI @PredictIt]

Traders are moving to Acton.

Ohio Democrats: 80¢ Tuesday night, 82¢ Thursday open, 88¢ now. In late July this race was a coin flip. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved it to Leans Democratic.

Ohio hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006.

#ActonRamaswamy #Elections #Ohio

[PI @PredictIt]

We asked DC for their most unpopular political predictions. They did not hold back. 👀
Some are bold. Some are… very bold. Which one do you think actually happens?

[PI @PredictIt]

Canada 🇨🇦 wants to be the 🇪🇺 EU’s first associate member. Prime Minister @MarkJCarney hosts EU leaders in Montreal Oct. 29–30.

Traders have Canada signed on by the end of 2027 at 4¢. The draft summit statement leaves the details to the 2027 summit.

#AssociateEUMember #OhCanada

[PI @PredictIt]

Next European leader to leave office → https://t.co/0GhdlQyuyp

New 🚨 Spain's snap election, Nov. 29→ https://t.co/kQ9rjQqyJr

[PI @PredictIt]

Argentina’s Javier Milei called Lula a “thief” this week. Brazil called it foreign interference.

Wednesday, in Madrid, he called Spain’s Pedro Sánchez a “disgraceful dictator.” Traders have Sánchez at 84¢ to be the next of 10 European leaders out. Spain votes Nov. 29.

#NextOut