PredictQ

Where the world analyzes, talks, and trades prediction markets

Join the waitlist now ↓

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

this is much needed for the industry

[Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000]

I joined the advisory board of the Sports Traders Union because the consumer needs a voice in this emerging landscape.

🫵You are an important part of this ecosystem and need to be heard.

Otherwise platforms and regulators will make decisions not always in your best interest.👊

Check out the website, read the code we want all PM’s to abide by, and join the union. No dues. No fees. Just strength in numbers.

https://t.co/owA3WV55PN

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Very interesting analysis here of people whose first trade is sports

- 55% venture outside sports (with Politics being the highest sector)
- 19% end up trading more than $10k

[Steve @SteveFlanders22]

it's often said that sports is the trojan horse into other categories of markets on polymarket, but i was always a bit skeptical

so, i ran the numbers

turns out sports really is a gateway drug

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Big congrats to @jbresl on his DFS hit using our PredictQ Partners model

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Prediction markets recap (July 27–31):

💰 M&A: IG Group is buying Underdog for up to $1.3B. The UK broker's acquisition of the DFS-and-prediction-markets operator (now the #3 US venue behind Kalshi and Robinhood) is one of the biggest deals the sector has seen. Underdog's revenue was ~$466M TTM; the deal is expected to more than double IG's US revenue

📊 Robinhood earnings: Q2 event-contract revenue hit $156M, out-earning crypto ($100M) for the first time ever. 13.6B contracts traded, up 10x YoY; 2M customers now trading. Record $1.31B total revenue

🏦 The entrants keep coming. Binance said it'll apply for a CFTC license next month. tastytrade launched prediction markets (July 28). Fanatics agreed to buy a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group. The CFTC approved JuiceX as a new designated contract market

⚖️ Courts split in the same week. A Minnesota judge paused the state's ban days before it took effect (a win for Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC). A Wisconsin judge let state enforcement proceed, ruling sports contracts may not be "swaps" (a loss). The CFTC is appealing

📋 Regulation: The CFTC's comment window on its proposed Rule 40.11 rewrite (governing which contracts are "contrary to the public interest") closed July 27. The NFL urged a 21+ age minimum and integrity monitoring; DraftKings argued sports aren't "gaming" under the law; former Sen. Chris Dodd said Congress never meant to make the CFTC a gambling regulator

📉 The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, exactly as markets priced (~83%)

🤝 Robinhood-Kalshi turning from partners to rivals, with Robinhood reportedly in talks to add Crypto*com's markets and routing more flow to its own exchange, Rothera

Let us know what we missed

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

prob a good time to say follow @PredictQmkt if you're looking to get an edge on kalshi, polymarket, underdog, draftkings, or any of the other prediction markets

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

BIG NEWS

Underdog set to be acquired by IG Group for $1.3B

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Robinhood's prediction market business out-earned its crypto business for the first time ever

Event contracts brought in $156M in Q2, crypto did $100M, down 38%

Customers traded 13.6 billion contracts, a 10x jump year over year

[Neil Sipes @neil_sipes4]

Robinhood prediction markets revenue expected to top crypto trading revenue in 2Q and in FY 2026-27. Running near 10-15% of $HOOD total revs and already bigger than stock trading in 1Q.

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

reviews are coming in for the prediction market show

mostly mixed, people wanting more but overall happy with how it turned out

curious what everyone here thought?

[Netflix @netflix]

Whether it’s the World Cup or Taylor Swift’s wedding, tens of millions are betting on the outcomes of almost anything using prediction markets.

Go inside the world of this legal but controversial form of gambling in INSTADOCS: THE PREDICTION GAMES. Premiering July 26.

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Who had a LeBron to the 76ers ticket?

Only at 9% shortly before the announcement

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Today is a big first step in what we're building and we're excited for all of you to be joining

The first edition of the PredictQ newsletter is hitting inboxes today with a special invitation

Still have a couple hours to join the waitlist if you've been able to find the site...

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

Big things are coming and we’re excited to share it with all of you

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

The World Cup winner market became the biggest single market in Kalshi history

To put that into perspective on Kalshi:
- World Cup Winner: $1.89B
- 2024 Presidential Election: $535M
- 2026 Masters: $460M
- Super Bowl LX: $358M

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

@MediaKing Why stop at a newsletter? Why not an entire platform to help traders be successful?

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

for those asking about how we got the 54% fair price

the general consensus at sportsbooks was England -135, Mexico +105

plug that into our Odds Converter tool and you'll see the true probability of 54%

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

https://t.co/ub4U6IRcqm

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

found the Mexico trader

[0xChainBrain @chainbrain]

@PredictQmkt This is ridiculous. It was an absolute freak occurrence that Mexico lost that game at the Azteca. By no possible stretch of the imagination were “true” odds that England were to win 54%. Closer to 15%

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

join us at https://t.co/mhWm4XzFke if you’re interersted in prediction markets

waitlist still live but closing soon

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

https://t.co/ub4U6IRcqm

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

@frake_liam The article touches a little on why it didn’t revert back quickly

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

@frake_liam The 54% didn’t come from the opening lines

Consensus price among sports books was England -135, Mexico +105

When you remove the vig, that’s a 54% win probability

[PredictQ @PredictQmkt]

@NononsenseJoe Consensus price among sports books was England -135, Mexico +105

When you remove the big, that’s a 54% win probability