PredictableShow

Predictable with Stu is a smarter, more useful way to get the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and what's next.

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@TurnerSportsEJ 😢

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FREE ENTRY. $2,500 to first place.

Pick 8 Senate candidates. Takes a few minutes. Top 100 win prizes. Even last place wins $100.

Closes Monday at 11:59 PM CT. https://t.co/xXdqCXjrbM

Rules: https://t.co/cLvkSlAJpQ NoPurchNec. 18+ US only. Enter by Nov. 2, 2026

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@Kalshi Now the only question is whether Warsh talks December up or down at the presser.

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President Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a proposal to revise a 2024 rule requiring oil and gas companies to monitor and reduce methane emissions. The changes would loosen some requirements, but this is a proposal, not a finalized repeal; the EPA says it will take public comment before finalizing the rule.

The EPA estimates the proposal would save consumers and businesses $45 billion and lead to 210 million additional barrels of oil, but those are agency projections, not guaranteed savings for shoppers. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and environmental groups warn that weaker rules could allow more pollution.

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@PolymarketMoney Six billion dollars for one building. Somebody at JPMorgan is very sure the office is not dead.

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@Polymarket Somewhere there is a market on whether this thing gets named after a cartoon dog. Pluto's little cousin just got 4.3 billion miles of attention.

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Full episode: https://t.co/7tZzrut7ug

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Sen. Lindsey Graham faces renewed scrutiny over allegations about his personal life.

@StuDoesAmerica shares his thoughts on the situation and the questions surrounding the allegations.

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@Polymarket Nothing says a race is tight like recruiting a second Dan Sullivan to confuse Alaska voters. Ranked choice is about to make this one very weir

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Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are locked in a high-stakes Texas Senate race, and President Trump traveled to the state to rally support for Paxton. Talarico is making a bid to become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide Texas election, while Elon Musk has funneled at least $158 million toward efforts to defeat him. Polymarket currently gives Talarico a 68% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Paxton, on about $7 million in volume.

[Stu Burguiere @StuDoesAmerica]

We've made an important addition to https://t.co/GOAPzdiL8u.

Whoever finishes dead last gets $100.

Free to join, thousands in prizes. Put your Senate predictions to the test!

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@KalshiPolitics 74 percent for Peltola in Alaska is the number that should worry Republicans more than any poll this week.

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@Polymarket The police union endorsement is the real story here. If robotaxis become the safe ride home, that 13 percent for California this year starts looking low.

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JUST IN: Control of the U.S. Senate could remain undecided for weeks after Election Day as close races and state voting rules threaten to delay final results.

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NEW: Republican strategists are raising concerns about GOP voter turnout just six days before the midterms.

Party operatives see encouraging signs in Iowa but growing concerns in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, per Axios.

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Full episode here! https://t.co/7tZzrut7ug

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Just because something is favored to happen doesn't mean an upset is impossible.

@StuDoesAmerica responds to criticism of prediction markets and explains why unexpected outcomes are a natural part of probability.

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@KalshiPolitics 69 percent in Michigan while the polls say single digits. That gap is either the market knowing something or the market being very confident about being wrong.

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@KalshiPolitics Quiet rating changes that matters more than the loud ones. Just watch what moves next.

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@Polymarket 80 percent turnout is a number most US races would kill for.