Blake

House/Senate campaign veteran | amateur mapper and elections enthusiast | trading politics & elections

[Alex Kontorovich @AlexKontorovich]

Look from above, then look from below.

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Counter-clockwise first, but inconsistently I can make myself see it clockwise

[Ramin Nasibov @RaminNasibov]

Which way is the arrow spinning?

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@Nebraskademsoc Bottoms+3

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@TheAleksee What's the argument that they pull out TX-9?

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Poster child for why any electoral odds model needs an adjustment for candidate quality

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Projected Vote Share:
🟥 Max Miller: 51.5%
🟦 Brian Poindexter: 48.5%

Explore this race on Votes: https://t.co/fGUQStPVYK

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Funny how deficit reduction always falls to Dems to be the adults in the room.

Though just as Clinton had the dot com boom to fuel the economy through fiscal tightening, the next Dem president likely gets the continued AI boom.

[Brendan Duke 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @Brendan_Duke]

One humbling thought—Bill Clinton’s 1993 tax increases were the largest permanent, standalone tax increase since 1951. They would raise the equivalent of $3.3T over 2030-39. That shouldn’t serve as a ceiling but as an acknowledgement of historical ambition 2029 could require.

[Biggie @DamnitBiggie]

There deadass is a Key and Peele video for this lmaoo

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

I like a guy who makes me feel small as much as the next gal, but we’re good so long as you can pick me up easily

[cosmic jester @cosmicjester]

You read the insane dating discourse on Twitter and you’d assume that no guy under 6’3” has ever had sex or dated a woman

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@bdquinn @DrewSav He was their Manchin

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@srepsev Don’t we all

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

The flipside is, if you want to be president, strike while the iron's hot

There's no guarantee there'll ever be a good opportunity again. And unlikely you'll ever have a better shot in the general than against Vance in the aftermath of a historically unpopular Trump presidency

[Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL]

Exclusive: Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off” on prediction markets

Via @yaffebellany and @SharonLNYT for @NYTimes

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@yaniversal Does MS belong on the same upset level as SC? I would think Graham opens up more variation & hence a little higher shot at an upset.

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Hard to believe you could get shares of Markey for ~70 cents back in July. Only wish I'd had more liquidity to take full advantage.

[Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek]

#MASEN Democratic primary: In UNH poll, Ed Markey leads Seth Moulton 63-28 after it was 41-35 in June https://t.co/3pjqrFRUox

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Bo French needs to be stopped

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

TPOR poll | 8/21-8/24

Texas statewide races 2026

US Senate
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟥Ken Paxton 42%
—
Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 49% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 42%
—
Lt. Governor
🟥Dan Patrick 47% (incumbent)
🟦Vikki Goodwin 41%
—
Attorney General
🟥Mayes Middleton 44%
🟦Nathan Johnson 41%
—
Comptroller
🟥Don Huffines 43%
🟦Sarah Eckhardt 41%
—
Railroad Commissioner
🟥Bo French 45%
🟦Jon Rosenthal 41%
—
Agriculture Commissioner
🟥Nate Sheets 44%
🟦Clayton Tucker 40%
—
Land Commissioner
🟥Dawn Buckingham 44% (incumbent)
🟦Benjamin Flores 40%

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

Crowley pulling out that upset switched this from Dems being an underdog to now being 90% favorites

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Among likely Democratic voters, 98% say they will vote for Crowley, while 91% of likely Republican voters say they will vote for Tiffany. Likely independent voters prefer Crowley by 55% to 16% for Tiffany. #mulawpoll

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@shibari_study What's all the yoga even for if not to be knotted into fun positions like this??

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

The flipside is, if you want to be president, strike while the iron's hot

There's no guarantee there'll ever be a good opportunity again. And unlikely you'll ever have a better shot in the general than against Vance in the aftermath of a historically unpopular Trump presidency

[Michael @Socdem_Michael]

I think AOC and her team see this as a simple calculation:

You have roughly 100% odds to take Schumer’s Senate seat if you want it…being a Senator from New York is a huge platform to have and can be used to launch a future Governor or POTUS candidacy.

Or you can burn all of your political capital on a longshot run for POTUS at age 37 and be stuck in the House for the foreseeable future if you don’t win the POTUS nomination…

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

@DrewSav Pappas is going to win by 10 pts.

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

One of the best Democratic delusion bets left on the board

Dems ain't winning Mississippi. Should be 99.9% for Hyde-Smith.

[Blake @PredictingBlake]

One of the more liquid Republican delusion markets left on the board