9:00pm today EDT we have Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota Lynx are coming in as the favorite at -150 with an ATS of 2.5.
Now hereโs what the prediction engine model is seeing. We see the Lynx winning outright 73.7% of the time and winning by 8.0 points or more
Play:
Minnesota Lynx spread -2.5 ๐
@CapoCountIt It gave Boston a 58% chance to win they were coming in at. 53% chance per Vegas. Not a huge ev play but they got absolutely annihilated anyway
Today at 1:35 PM we have Baltimore Orioles versus the Boston Red Sox currently this game is looking like a 50-50 split on whoโs gonna win it outright the model is actually projecting that the Boston Red Sox win 58% of the time which does give us a slight edge on taking Boston on the money line
Red Sox moneyline -115 ๐
Tonight for our WNBA we have Atlanta Dream @ Indiana Fever. Indiana is coming in as the favorite with the moneyline currently sitting around -120 and a spread of 1.5. For this match up we have a completely model reversal. Weโre projecting Atlanta Dream to have a 65.1% probability to win outright and by a margin of 8.1
Atlanta Dream moneyline +100 ๐
Today at 1:35 PM we have Baltimore Orioles versus the Boston Red Sox currently this game is looking like a 50-50 split on whoโs gonna win it outright the model is actually projecting that the Boston Red Sox win 58% of the time which does give us a slight edge on taking Boston on the money line
Red Sox moneyline -115 ๐
Usual suspects list to Homer today
Luck number 13 we have
Brandon Lowe
Pittsburgh Pirates
13.5%
HR PROB
vs Kai-Wei Teng (Houston Astros)
COLDNeutral
BARREL% 13.9%
EXIT VELO 90.0
XISO 0.259
HR L15 3
Opp HR/9: 0.90
Fastball%: 50.0%
From our usual suspects list to Homer today we have #3 #7 #11 because I love craps
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
29.2% HR PROB
vs Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians)
NeutralHitter-Friendly Park
BARREL% 21.9%
EXIT VELO 94.0
XISO 0.336
HR L15 1
Opp HR/9: 1.00
Fastball%: 42.7%
Mike Trout
Los Angeles Angels
14.8% HR PROB
vs Michael Lorenzen (Colorado Rockies)
Neutral
BARREL% 20.7%
EXIT VELO 91.0
XISO 0.319
HR L15 3
Opp HR/9: 1.60
Fastball%: 35.8%
JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds
14.2% HR PROB
vs Stephen Kolek (Kansas City Royals)
HOTNeutralHitter-Friendly Park
BARREL% 13.8%
EXIT VELO 90.6
XISO 0.272
HR L15 4
Opp HR/9: 1.00
Fastball%: 49.7%
Today we have game 2 Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights.
Hurricanes are coming in as the favorite again to win outright with a 62% probability to win.
El Niรฑo will be clubbing the hurricanes at the knee caps
Play:
VGK +1.5 spread
Q3 projections form the live NBA model
NYK 76 @ SAS 76
Combined: 152
Margin: Tied
PROJECTED TOTAL
HIGH SIGNAL
208
68% interval: 200.5 โ 215.5(historical MAE ยฑ7.5)
Vegas pre-game: --
152 now ยท Proj: 208
Halftime pace: 202.7
Model +5.3 vs pace
Based on Q3 data
PROJECTED WINNER
HIGH SIGNAL
NYKby 2.5
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 85%(margin MAE ยฑ4)
Pace margin: -
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q3 data
Q2 projections For the live NBA model
FINAL CALL NYK 48 @ SAS 55
Combined: 103
Margin: SAS +7
PROJECTED TOTAL
RELIABLE
214.6
68% interval: 203.2 โ 226(historical MAE ยฑ11.4)
Vegas pre-game: --
103 now ยท Proj: 214.6
Q1 pace: 206
Model +8.6 vs pace
Based on halftime data
PROJECTED WINNER
RELIABLE
SASby 3.9
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 76%(margin MAE ยฑ6)
Pace margin: SAS +14.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on halftime data
How It Works
Q1 โ Early Signal
Model uses quarter scores, pace, and team rolling stats to project. MAE: ~13 pts total, ~11 pts margin. Directional: 63%.
Q2 โ Final Call
Half-time data locks in. MAE: ~11 pts total, ~9 pts margin. Picks the winner 76% of the time. Best entry window.
Q3 โ High Confidence
MAE: ~8 pts total, ~7 pts margin. Winner accuracy: 80%. Lines may have shifted significantly by now.
Q1 projections from the live NBA model
NYK 19 @ SAS 27
Combined: 46
Margin: SAS +8
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
215.1
68% interval: 198.6 โ 231.6(historical MAE ยฑ16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --
46 now ยท Proj: 215.1
pace: 184
Model +31.1 vs pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
SAS by 5.4
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ยฑ9)
Pace margin: SAS +32.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
I like this. Mostly because I see this game being pretty tight.
NYK 17 @ SAS 22
Combined: 39
Margin: SAS +5
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
205.5
68% interval: 189 โ 222(historical MAE ยฑ16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --
39 now ยท Proj: 205.5
pace: 156
Model +49.5 vs pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
SASby 3.0
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ยฑ9)
Pace margin: SAS +20.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
Early Q1 projections from the live NBA model
Q1 ESTIMATE
NYK 14 @ SAS 7
Combined: 21
Margin: NYK +7
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
201.2
68% interval: 184.7 โ 217.7(historical MAE ยฑ16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --
21 now ยท Proj: 201.2
pace: 84
Model +117.2 vs pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
NYKby 9.7
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ยฑ9)
Pace margin: NYK +28.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data โ refines at halftime
From my experience the very first early Q1 projection is more accurate then the half time