Reuben O

This is Prediction Engines new Primary X page. We will continue to give game and player analysis / breakdowns throughout the NBA, MLB, and NHL season.

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

9:00pm today EDT we have Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota Lynx are coming in as the favorite at -150 with an ATS of 2.5.

Now here’s what the prediction engine model is seeing. We see the Lynx winning outright 73.7% of the time and winning by 8.0 points or more

Play:
Minnesota Lynx spread -2.5 🔒

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@BookitWithTrent After getting rinsed taking the canes ml last time I’m going for the VGK spread

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@CapoCountIt It gave Boston a 58% chance to win they were coming in at. 53% chance per Vegas. Not a huge ev play but they got absolutely annihilated anyway

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Today at 1:35 PM we have Baltimore Orioles versus the Boston Red Sox currently this game is looking like a 50-50 split on who’s gonna win it outright the model is actually projecting that the Boston Red Sox win 58% of the time which does give us a slight edge on taking Boston on the money line

Red Sox moneyline -115 🔒

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Tonight for our WNBA we have Atlanta Dream @ Indiana Fever. Indiana is coming in as the favorite with the moneyline currently sitting around -120 and a spread of 1.5. For this match up we have a completely model reversal. We’re projecting Atlanta Dream to have a 65.1% probability to win outright and by a margin of 8.1

Atlanta Dream moneyline +100 🔒

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Not surprised Boston let me down

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Today at 1:35 PM we have Baltimore Orioles versus the Boston Red Sox currently this game is looking like a 50-50 split on who’s gonna win it outright the model is actually projecting that the Boston Red Sox win 58% of the time which does give us a slight edge on taking Boston on the money line

Red Sox moneyline -115 🔒

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Usual suspects list to Homer today

Luck number 13 we have

Brandon Lowe
Pittsburgh Pirates
13.5%
HR PROB
vs Kai-Wei Teng (Houston Astros)
COLDNeutral

BARREL% 13.9%
EXIT VELO 90.0
XISO 0.259
HR L15 3
Opp HR/9: 0.90
Fastball%: 50.0%

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@tregan1385 Hopefully he plays today he’s moved form 3-1. It happens I’ve had bets get voided once the roaster updates

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

From our usual suspects list to Homer today we have #3 #7 #11 because I love craps

Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
29.2% HR PROB
vs Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians)
NeutralHitter-Friendly Park

BARREL% 21.9%
EXIT VELO 94.0
XISO 0.336
HR L15 1
Opp HR/9: 1.00
Fastball%: 42.7%

Mike Trout
Los Angeles Angels
14.8% HR PROB
vs Michael Lorenzen (Colorado Rockies)
Neutral

BARREL% 20.7%
EXIT VELO 91.0
XISO 0.319
HR L15 3
Opp HR/9: 1.60
Fastball%: 35.8%

JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds
14.2% HR PROB
vs Stephen Kolek (Kansas City Royals)
HOTNeutralHitter-Friendly Park

BARREL% 13.8%
EXIT VELO 90.6
XISO 0.272
HR L15 4
Opp HR/9: 1.00
Fastball%: 49.7%

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@DailyFaceoff VGK loses by 1 or wins outright

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Today we have game 2 Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights.

Hurricanes are coming in as the favorite again to win outright with a 62% probability to win.

El Niño will be clubbing the hurricanes at the knee caps

Play:
VGK +1.5 spread

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@NHL @GoldenKnights @Canes @Sportsnet @TVASports Canes about to get capped at the knees again

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Q3 projections form the live NBA model

NYK 76 @ SAS 76
Combined: 152
Margin: Tied
PROJECTED TOTAL
HIGH SIGNAL
208
68% interval: 200.5 – 215.5(historical MAE ±7.5)
Vegas pre-game: --

152 now · Proj: 208
Halftime pace: 202.7
Model +5.3 vs pace
Based on Q3 data
PROJECTED WINNER
HIGH SIGNAL
NYKby 2.5
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 85%(margin MAE ±4)
Pace margin: -
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q3 data

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Q2 projections For the live NBA model

FINAL CALL NYK 48 @ SAS 55
Combined: 103
Margin: SAS +7
PROJECTED TOTAL
RELIABLE
214.6
68% interval: 203.2 – 226(historical MAE ±11.4)
Vegas pre-game: --

103 now · Proj: 214.6
Q1 pace: 206
Model +8.6 vs pace
Based on halftime data
PROJECTED WINNER
RELIABLE
SASby 3.9
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 76%(margin MAE ±6)
Pace margin: SAS +14.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on halftime data
How It Works

Q1 — Early Signal
Model uses quarter scores, pace, and team rolling stats to project. MAE: ~13 pts total, ~11 pts margin. Directional: 63%.

Q2 — Final Call
Half-time data locks in. MAE: ~11 pts total, ~9 pts margin. Picks the winner 76% of the time. Best entry window.

Q3 — High Confidence
MAE: ~8 pts total, ~7 pts margin. Winner accuracy: 80%. Lines may have shifted significantly by now.

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@UnderdogNBA Good stuff. I got NYK as a slight favorite

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@cblezbets Solid play I see them as a top conte for tonight

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Q1 projections from the live NBA model

NYK 19 @ SAS 27
Combined: 46
Margin: SAS +8
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
215.1
68% interval: 198.6 – 231.6(historical MAE ±16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --

46 now · Proj: 215.1
pace: 184
Model +31.1 vs pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
SAS by 5.4
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ±9)
Pace margin: SAS +32.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

I like this. Mostly because I see this game being pretty tight.

NYK 17 @ SAS 22
Combined: 39
Margin: SAS +5
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
205.5
68% interval: 189 – 222(historical MAE ±16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --
39 now · Proj: 205.5
pace: 156
Model +49.5 vs pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
SASby 3.0
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ±9)
Pace margin: SAS +20.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

@arslxan See you at the bank 🏦

[Reuben O @Prediction_Eng]

Early Q1 projections from the live NBA model

Q1 ESTIMATE
NYK 14 @ SAS 7
Combined: 21
Margin: NYK +7
PROJECTED TOTAL
NOISY
201.2
68% interval: 184.7 – 217.7(historical MAE ±16.5)
Vegas pre-game: --

21 now · Proj: 201.2
pace: 84
Model +117.2 vs pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime
PROJECTED WINNER
NOISY
NYKby 9.7
Historical winner accuracy at this checkpoint: 62%(margin MAE ±9)
Pace margin: NYK +28.0
Model agrees with pace
Based on Q1 data — refines at halftime

From my experience the very first early Q1 projection is more accurate then the half time