$BTC Sunday update:
Still seeing a recovery to the mid-range $69k.
From there, I'll look for signs of momentum decreasing and a potential rejection to close my long and set orders again at range lows for a possible Three Taps pattern.
🧵↓(1/5)
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
In my framework, short-term moves between 60-64k or 60-68k do not change how I view the position. The focus is on the macro move toward the 40-50k area which i described as CBB zone (CONFIRMED BLACKROCK BOTTOM), which is still 4-5 months away in my view. Short-term fluctuation in this range is exactly what I expect during Stage 5, and it does not affect the positioning. A day trader would care about every 2-3% move. I do not trade that way. The approach is built for the macro structure, not for short-term swings. The shorts stay open, no adjustments based on weekly fluctuation, and the wait for the structure to deliver continues. DrProfit Premium is free to join right now: but only for 2 more days. After that the free window closes, so get in while you can: VIP Channel: https://t.co/M7ZTS8JTpe
The aSOPR Signal
One metric I am watching closely is aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio). It shows whether the average BTC being moved on-chain is being sold at a profit or a loss. Right now, losses are starting to be realized. People who bought at 70k, 80k, 90k, 100k, and at ATH levels are beginning to sell into the market at meaningful losses for the first time in this bear market. This is exactly the behavior I have been watching for since Stage 4: short-term holders capitulating!
The important part is this: the selling has not yet reached the extreme levels seen in previous bear market bottoms. In 2018, in 2022, and in every prior cycle, the bottom came with a single extreme realized-loss event. One day, one week, one event where panic selling reaches absolute maximum. In my framework that moment is the capitulation, and that is what I am waiting for. Right now the realization phase is starting, and people understood that the bottom was not in, and yet selling now ? I dont understand how these people trade.
The CBB Thesis
The bottom for Bitcoin will be the BlackRock zone, the area where the BlackRock ETF launched in early 2024. The 40-50k region remains my target for the final cycle bottom, and September-October 2026 remains the preferred timeline. This thesis is not new. It goes back to July 2024 when I wrote that the Golden Bull region would mark or be very close to the bottom of the next bear market. Now, two years later, price action is converging toward exactly that zone. The CBB is the architecture of the final flush in my view.
Stage 5 Progress
We are in the early phase of Stage 5. Capitulation has not happened yet. I expect more weeks of fluctuation between 58kk and 68k. Short squeezes that punish late bears. Long traps that punish bottom callers. Violent moves in both directions. This is the architecture of the coming 1-3 weeks. The longer we move sideway, the larger the capitulation, and the cleaner the final bottom.
Calendar This Week
FOMC meeting Wednesday June 17th is the major event. This is Warsh's first FOMC as Chair. Markets are pricing in a dovish tone and possible signals about future cuts. In my view the dovish pivot will not be delivered cleanly. Retail sales Tuesday June 16th. Initial jobless claims Thursday June 18th. Expect heavy volatility around the FOMC statement and press conference. I think the FOMC results will cause in more red in the stock market and crypto markets
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THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
THE BITCOIN SHAKEOUT ZONE.
Fear dominates.
But this is where bottoms are born.
Smart money isn’t panicking.
They’re positioning.
The next leg begins where most give up.
When fear peaks, the trend flips.
Robert Kiyosaki has a track record of predictions
and every single one of them is wrong
- Bitcoin will hit 75k by 2023 (never broke 74k)
- Bitcoin will hit 350k by August 2024
- Bitcoin will hit 500k by end of 2025
- Bitcoin will hit 175k to 350k in 2025
- The biggest crash ever is coming (2018)
S&P 500 pumped 115 percent after this btw
- Covid crash is “just starting” (2020)
S&P 500 gained 53 percent the next year
- Everything crash is coming (2020)
- Giant crash in October (2021)
nothing happened
- Everything bubble to everything crash (2022)
- The crash has started (2024)
the market went up 29 percent
Idk why but I don’t believe you Robert
October & November are historically the BEST months for $BTC
October & November 2025 are the WORST October & November in the last 7 years
December is historically one of the WORST months for $BTC
December 2025: You see the pattern here?
🔻2011 – Gox gets hacked. Portfolio: gone.
🔻2013 – China bans crypto. Gone again.
🔻2014 – Gox collapses. Reset.
🔻2017 – ICO bubble bursts. Back to zero.
🔻2020 – COVID crash. Another wipeout.
🔻2022 – Luna + FTX. Clean slate… again.
🔻2025 – Tariff shock. Same story.
If you can lose everything this many times and still learn nothing, the market isn’t beating you, your habits are.
$BTC - Squiggles playing out perfectly so far. We got the relief bounce that gets people to FOMO buy and now the pull back which gets them to panic sell before forming the actual bottom that even the bulls won't want to buy.