๐ MARKET RISK LEVEL
๐ด EXTREMELY HIGH
Focus sequence: CPI โ PPI โ FOMC. Inflation and Middle East headlines remain the dominant drivers for USD, Gold, Bitcoin, Treasury yields, and global equities.
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โก MARKET-MOVING SURPRISES
๐จ Geopolitical escalation has returned, pushing oil higher and increasing inflation risks.
๐จ Economists now broadly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, a significant shift from earlier expectations for cuts.
๐ GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
๐จ Major escalation in the Middle East
U.S. strikes against Iran followed reports of an attack on a U.S. Apache helicopter.
Brent crude climbed above $92.
Rising oil prices are increasing inflation risks and weighing on global equities.
๐ฆ FOMC WATCH (JUNE 16โ17)
Rates are expected to remain at 3.50%-3.75%.
Economists increasingly expect no rate cuts in 2026.
Some futures markets are beginning to price the possibility of a year-end hike.
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๐ฅ CPI DAY , MARKETS ON EDGE
The U.S. CPI report is due today and remains the dominant market catalyst. Consensus is around 4.2% YoY, with elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks creating upside inflation pressure. Markets have shifted toward a higher-for-longer Fed outlook.
๐ MARKET RISK LEVEL
๐ด VERY HIGH
Focus: CPI release โ PPI โ FOMC meeting. Inflation remains the primary driver of USD, Gold, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and equities.
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โก RECENT MARKET-MOVING SURPRISE
May NFP significantly exceeded expectations with 172K jobs added, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient and reducing expectations for near-term Fed easing.
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๐ GEOPOLITICAL UPDATE
Renewed Israel-Iran tensions remain a major macro risk. Energy markets remain volatile, and geopolitical developments continue to influence inflation expectations and bond yields.
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