ProfPokeQuant

PhD data scientist analyzing the Pokémon market.
Daily market data, trends & weird anomalies.
Building @CardBoardTerm |

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I just launched the Cardboard Terminal iOS app!

Cardboard Terminal finds underpriced trading cards on eBay.

Now you can set custom alerts and get a push notification when a good deal pops up for a card you want.

Totally free:
https://t.co/w74buKNGQU

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Pokemon cards do seem to be showing a correction.

But grouping the cards by era tells a bit more interesting of a story.

Mid-era vintage pokemon is specifically what took off in the last few months, and that is also what is seeing the biggest correction right now.

More modern sets and 1999-2001 didn't see as much of a surge, and thus are seeing less of a correction.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Pokémon cards are seeing a correction.

Basketball cards are dropping too, but Pokémon is falling faster.

At this rate, basketball cards might actually end up being the best card investment of 2026 👀

https://t.co/fW236w00Zb

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Yesterday was one of the craziest days of hot auctions I've seen.

So many steals. I spent way too much lol.

A bunch of the auctions I surfaced in my Sunday report ended up selling way under market value too, pretty neat:

https://t.co/P4EF4rZnm0

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Over half of all Pokemon Slab auctions end on Sundays.

I like to put together a list of all the auctions I'm personally keeping an eye on on Sunday.

Here it is if you're interested: https://t.co/sHhTGt1ONl

A few have already ended way under their market value.

Many more to come 👀

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@RedDevilZone_OG If the buyer chooses to ship to the PSA Vault, the buyer does not receive it directly.

They can withdraw it from the PSA Vault at any time though if they want to.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Bought this PSA 9 Reshiram & Charizard Pokemon card for $330 on Tuesday using Deal Finder.

Sold it for $500 this morning. A quick $170 spread before fees 🔥

And get this... another copy sold yesterday for $700.

Some crazy deals hiding on eBay right now.

Deal Finder is free if you want to check it out: https://t.co/P7i9MEvQJS

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

One of my fastest flips yet.

Picked up this One Piece Marshall D. Teach PSA 10 for $414 on Thursday.

Sold it less than 48 hours later for $550 ($484 after fees).

$70 profit after fees in under two days. Not bad!

Deals like this are hiding in eBay every day.

I've made deal finder completely free if you want to check it out:
https://t.co/P7i9MEvQJS

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@zackthenit It was $440 after fees, so still $110 profit. But fees definitely hurt!

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@RedDevilZone_OG If you buy something in the PSA Vault, and you keep it in the PSA Vault, it instantly transfers

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@DonPablo2024 Maybe a slight downturn in the last two weeks, but overall slabs are crushing this year!

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Insane number of deals tonight sheesh

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@NEEDcreations Can you DM me some screenshots of examples

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@Stockahlife @inhuman You're not wrong that Pokemon is thriving more than any sport.

But Basketball isn't far behind this year!

You can see the data here: https://t.co/tZ9lVVzDTL

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I didn't love the tools that existed for exploring card sales data.

So I built my own.

It lets you chart individual card prices over time split by grade (of course). But I wanted to go further.

I built market indices for every major category, set, era, and character/player.

For example, you can compare how Pokémon is performing against One Piece and Riftbound (shown below).

Pokémon has been crushing it this year, but might be showing early signs of a correction 👀

You can also get pretty creative grouping the data different ways. Want to see whether vintage PSA 6s are outperforming modern PSA 10s? You can do that.

Check out the tool if you're interested - totally free. I'd love to see what people come up with.

Post the coolest chart you can make 😎

https://t.co/2Cej6WtZYy

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@Grantmannn Yes PSA only for now - more to come!

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I built a live feed that finds graded card auctions selling below market price.

Completely free to use if you want to check it out.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@surgieboi Filters should all work as intended.

In the feed you can search for card by name.

In the app you can create pretty complex alerts on specific cards, sets, etc.

Hope that answers your question- happy to answer more here or if you want to dm me!

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I built a live feed that finds graded card auctions ending below market value. This is what it looks like right now.

Completely free if you want to check it out.

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@eelchico Grading cost is included!

But yes there is definitely time risk associated

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

I think I just found something the Pokémon card market hasn't caught onto yet.

Some booster packs now have a calculated expected return of over 200%.

Here's the math.

A few months ago, I wrote a post about calculating the expected value of opening every Pokémon booster pack using pull rates, recent sales, and PSA grading data.

One set stood out: Fates Collide.

At the time, a pack cost about $44, and its contents were worth $36.47 on average if you sold or graded each hit optimally.

An 83% expected return. Better than a lottery ticket, but still a losing proposition.

But something has changed.

Graded Pokémon card prices have skyrocketed, while sealed pack prices haven't kept up.

Today, the math looks completely different:

• Pack price: $44.88
• Expected value: $107.57
• Expected return: 240%

So where does all that EV come from?

Take Mew Holo #29.

A PSA 10 is now worth around $3,000, up 743% in the past year.

But unlike the ultra-rare chase cards, you pull Mew about once every 34 packs.

Obviously, not every copy gets a PSA 10.

So I weight each possible grade by its historical PSA frequency, subtract grading costs, and account for the probability of pulling the card.

The result?

Mew alone contributes $18.16 of EV to every Fates Collide pack.

Lugia BREAK adds another $9.46.

I repeat this process for every card in the set.

Interestingly, despite the 240% expected return, there's still a 76% chance of getting back less than 25% of your money.

Most packs lose money. A handful of enormous hits pull the average way up.

And Fates Collide isn't alone anymore. Several other sets now have positive modeled EV too.

The prices of individual graded cards are moving faster than the sealed packs containing them.

I've made the entire pack EV tool free on Cardboard Terminal if you want to check it out:

https://t.co/LwDTjmm13D

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@mewmew_tcg Not yet, but coming soon!

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

@BuyMoreCoins Yes raw-only EV is in the tool! Both for the whole pack, and per card

[ProfPokeQuant @ProfPokeQuant]

Important note: PSA grading data has selection bias, and here I assume all hits are suitable for grading.

I've included a slider in the tool so you can adjust this assumption. For example, if you think only 50% of pack-fresh Fates Collide cards are worth grading, you can set it to 50% and see how the EV changes.