Peter Strachan

Professor of Energy Policy and Sustainability Transitions

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

1/ Researchers @UniHannover & @lut.fi performed a systematic literature review on the future role of solar PV in energy transition studies around the globe and found that solar PV emerges as the dominant energy source by 2050. https://t.co/7TcFUswr2U.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

2/ Context: Database with 1000+ articles on highly renewables was used https://t.co/Bcq6Gzeqe0 & refined for PV specifics e.g. PV system diversity, cost, shares in solutions, etc. Focus was led on transition studies covering the full energy system leading to 60 studies examined.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

3/ Solar PV share greatly varies between studies ranging from 5-98% with many studies underestimating the future role of PV due to pessimistic cost assumptions & low-complexity modeling. Typical issues: outdated cost, low spatial & temporal resolution, lack of power-to-X options.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

4/ Most of the investigated highly renewable energy transition studies agree: solar PV & wind will provide 80–99% of electricity by 2050. Two groups for the PV share are detected: about 25-50% and 70-95%, with the latter overcoming the issues of post (2) plus sunbelt conditions.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

5/ Why do solar PV projections vary so much? Key reason is cost assumptions. Outdated or pessimistic costs lead to systematically underestimated roles of PV. Still, low-cost PV may not lead to very high PV shares, as diverse factors drive overall low-cost energy system solutions.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

6/ Location matters: the more solar resource (full load hours), the higher the PV share in future energy systems. There are significant outliers in both directions, mainly due excellent other renewables, e.g. hydropower, wind, geothermal – or lack of relevant other renewables.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

7/ We find an empirical cross-study relationship that links available solar resource to the future PV share in the energy system. Applying this relationship & performing a population-weighted average yields a 61% global PV share by 2050. The Solar Age is projected across studies.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

8/ Key takeaways: (1) systematic literature review of 60 energy transition studies, (2) PV share often underestimated due to pessimistic assumptions and low-complexity modelling, (3) Solar Age ahead with 61% global PV share projected across studies.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

9/ Listen to the Solar Age ahead: Highly Renewable Energy System Analyses Indicate PV-dominance paper in the podcast on our research results: https://t.co/giNRzdyXNC – this is AI-generated using Google NotebookLM.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

1/New research @UniLUT @UniPaderborn @UniversityofMauritius presents defossilisation pathways for island energy systems, balancing power via hydrogen re‑electrification in area‑constrained islands & benchmarking system costs against imported e‑fuels. https://t.co/2NFXwfzUaa

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

2/ This research links to #100RE study portfolio on islands and floating #PV: review https://t.co/NntnjjQD98, #Maldives https://t.co/NGzfFJfADH and #Seychelles https://t.co/yAYbQtpnHp, and #US https://t.co/MQH6tSCdlZ

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

3/ Systematic review insight: Based on 164 peer‑reviewed studies worldwide, small islands face major power balancing challenges, leading to high renewable curtailment. This highlights a key research gap: what are solutions for seasonal power balancing in island energy systems?

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

4/ Mauritius energy futures are analysed using electricity balancing via domestic e‑H2 or/and imported e‑fuels. Key variables incl solar PV land limits, H2 share for power balancing, e‑fuel imports (e‑diesel/e‑methanol) & offshore options (wave vs floating PV with offshore wind).

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

5/ Modelling is performed using the EP-ALISON-LUT framework, enabling structured sensitivity analysis of technology scaling, land and sea area constraints, and system balancing requirements in long-term transitions.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

6/ Land availability expansion for solar PV shifts island power systems away from thermal balancing and wave energy. Domestic hydrogen pathways rely on a mix of offshore renewables, but dispatchable balancing remains essential to manage variability & curtailment.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

7/ Eliminating e‑fuel imports in island energy systems shifts flexibility away from short‑term batteries towards hydrogen balancing for system‑level & seasonal balancing. The mix varies with PV land use, offshore renewables & support from V2G during critical periods.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

8/ Transition cost comparison: The fossil reference system costs 1573 m€/a, largely driven by fuel & CO2 costs. With solar PV land use <1.45%, clean pathways remain feasible: 1358 m€/a using floating offshore solar or 1711 m€/a with wave power revealing cost trade‑offs.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

9/ Cost breakthrough: Dedicated wave power & hybrid wave + floating offshore solar PV systems cut electricity costs to 83.3 €/MWh and 59.8 €/MWh, outperforming the reference system (89.6 €/MWh). e‑Fuel import pathways remain less competitive at ≥99.4 €/MWh.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

10/ Price sensitivity insight: While e‑fuel imports enable techno‑economic backup, they expose systems to global price risks. A 50% e‑fuel price rise increases cost of final energy by 7.2% with partial imports, but up to 11.3% under full import reliance, while LCOE remain stable.

[Christian Breyer 🦣 @ChristianOnRE]

11/ Next steps: Future research would compare H2 re‑electrification via fuel cells vs gas turbines, expand storage options (pumped hydro), include floating offshore wind for deep waters & assess societal impacts from renewable deployment.