Project Blackout

[Simon Betschinger @SBetschinger]

Wie kann es sein, dass die Industrieproduktion weltweit Jahr für Jahr steigt und nur in Deutschland schrumpft? Der Grund ist die europäische Regulierung, die in Deutschland begeistert umgesetzt wurde. Statt auf Marktwirtschaft setzen die Regulierer auf planwirtschaftlichen Zwang. Gegen jede wissenschaftliche Vernunft.

[Project Blackout @ProjectBlack0ut]

Perhaps project 'blackout' should evolve into the project 'economy apocalypse' for Europe

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

Everyone has heard about Chinese cars flooding the markets, but it’s not only cars. After the epic property bubble burst, China built a staggering manufacturing overcapacity in many sectors.

Former expensive industrial powers like Japan or Germany will struggle to compete.

[max tempers @maxtempers]

In Soviet Britain, there is a “cooling hierarchy” with five tiers that you must demonstrate to your council you have exhausted before you are allowed to install air conditioning; otherwise, it’s taken down.

[Polemic Paine @PolemicTMM]

Someone's narrative is going to have to break here. All our energy suppliers saying 'you are on a 100% renewables tariff' and then we are told using that electricity for aircon produces too much CO2.

And if we run the aircon off our own solar panels... does that produce too much CO2 too?

[Maxwell Tabarrok @MTabarrok]

Half the land area of Boston, a quarter of NYC, and 15% of San Francisco were raised from the sea before 1970.

Since then, land values have grown by 30x but land reclamation has ground to a halt.

This failure follows the spread environmental law around the world rather than any geographic, technological, or economic constraint.

Thus, our lack of land reclamation and the severe land constraints in our most important cities are self-imposed and avoidable. We should make more land!
https://t.co/J9zghvLkz2

Land reclamation was common practice in American cities in the 19th and 20th centuries. Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Charleston, San Francisco, New York, Philadelphia, Norfolk, DC, Oakland, and LA all had major land reclamation projects that extended residential living space or infrastructure or both.

The Bay Area alone reclaimed an area of land equivalent to ten Manhattans between 1850 and 1957, at an inflation-adjusted cost of $330,000 per acre. Today, an acre of single-family-zoned land in San Francisco County averages $24 million. Even if the cost of land reclamation grew faster than inflation, despite technological leaps in dredging and construction technology, there should be plenty of room for profitable arbitrage.

And yet, land reclamation is extinct in the Bay Area as well as in every other American city. This isn’t because we ran out of good spots to reclaim: Two thirds of the San Francisco Bay is shallower than Boston’s Back Bay was when it was reclaimed in the 1860s. Nor is it because of better transportation: We’ve used up all of the easy suburban expansions enabled by the train and the automobile so prices are rising even in outlying suburbs.

Instead, land reclamation’s death is due to environmental law. Evidence for this claim shows up in the coincident timing of land reclamation’s demise across dozens of cities in the US and in the environmental compliance process of the few reclamation projects still inching along today, but the best evidence is found internationally.

No country has more experience or more reason to reclaim land than the Netherlands. The Dutch built 5% of their country out of the sea over the first half of the 20th century and by 1975 they had another artificial lake in the Zuiderzee ready to drain at the flip of a switch, which would have made tens of thousands of acres of land just east of Amsterdam. But a 1969 environmental review law, similar to NEPA in the US, stopped the project before it was finished and the site is now a protected bird sanctuary. Their one major reclamation since, the Maasvlakte 2 extension of the port of Rotterdam, took 11 years and 6,000 pages of environmental review before construction began.

Inversely, countries without these laws, like China, Singapore, and Japan have continued major land reclamation projects into the 21st century. China has reclaimed over 5,000 square kilometers since 2000, including a city of half a million outside Shanghai and Singapore has grown by a quarter since 1975.

Every major American city has a land shortage. But we have more than enough shallow water, dredging capacity, and market incentive to make more land, just like we did 150 years ago. The only obstacle is our own choice to make making land illegal. The benefits of more land in our most productive cities are large enough to justify the effort of reforming the laws that currently prevent it. Let’s make more land!

[Creative Deduction @CreativeDeduct]

In 1984, left wing economists declared the death of New Zeeland farming when free market reformers scrapped their system of agricultural subsidies and trade protections. But instead of collapsing, the market adapted – and prospered. Stripped of government aid and freed from stifling regulations, farmers innovated rapidly, reduced waste, shifted away from unprofitable products. Heavy reliance on sheep and wool was replaced by highly profitable and diversified dairy operations, viticulture, and horticulture. The reforms turned New Zealand into one of the most hyper-efficient, competitive, and profitable agricultural exporters in the world. The sheep population more than halved, from 70 to 30 million, while productivity jumped by 170%.
Contrast that with the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a EUR 60bn policy which amounts to a massive distortion of the free market, replacing competitive dynamics with heavy-handed state interventionism. A vast subsidy system and protective tariff walls stifle innovation, misallocate resources, and harm consumers.
Perversely, subsidies are linked to land ownership and is completely disconnected from production of agricultural produce. Instead of responding to authentic consumer demand, farmers are incentivized to meet bureaucratic criteria such as Crop Rotation Requirements to secure government funding.
The system has delayed necessary structural modernization. In a free market, inefficient farms would consolidate or adapt; under the CAP, public money keeps uncompetitive operations afloat. An average EU farm generates between $19 and $28 of output per hour of labour compared to New Zeeland’s $45 to $60 per hour. While the Kiwi agricultural sector prospers, the EU is stuck with a system that forces taxpayers to subsidize their own artificially inflated grocery bills.

[hallerite @hallerite]

it's not lack of compute that's the issze. it's that in Europe, it's unthinkable to pay a guy in his mid 20s $600k salary and give him resources and freedom to train models without having oversight by a committee of gerontocratic professorswho don't keep up with the research

[Marek Tucholski 🇵🇱 @tucholski_marek]

Pogłębiająca się nierównowaga systemu energetycznego to koszty i ryzyko blackoutu, ale według obecnej koncepcji tzw. transformacji energetycznej tak ma być...

[Zaklinacz Łosiów @ZaklinaczLosiow]

Skutki zielonego ładu widzimy w praktyce.
Czy zmienia się emisja na ziemi? ~ Tak, nadal przybywa cały czas.
Co jeszcze się zmieniło ?
~ zarżnęliśmy europejski przemysł. I raczej nie jest to do odkręcenia.
Przykład ? Produkcja substancji czynnych (ATP) w lekach. W zasadzie duopol Indii i Chin gdyby tylko się opłaciło zatrzymuje od 80-90% produkcji substancji leczniczych. Różnice wynikają w zależności od klasyfikacji.
Inne biznesy ? Samochody ❤️😂
- to jest w praktyce wyniki zielonego ładu. Brak wpływu na świat i zniszczenie swojego przemysłu.
Powodzenia w obronie.

[Covfefe Anon @CovfefeAnon]

"oops" they said

[Dr. Naomi Wolf. 8 NYT Bestsellers. DPhil, Poetry. @naomirwolf]

I bought a second hand 2009 Prius four years ago. A friend misplaced the electronic key. Cost me $2000 to get the entire dashboard removed and the computer system that deals with the electronic key upgraded. The car had sat for a while without the battery being used. Mechanic told me it would cost 4-5k to replace the hybrid battery. This whole time I owned it I felt so good about helping to save the planet. The repairs of the high tech systems are worth more than the car now so I had to give it away to save the cost of towing. With the new digital surveillance in autos our subjection will be complete. An old school fossil fuel engine and a metal car key give you far more power, privacy and autonomy.

[Informacje Giełdowe @GPW_Trader2022]

🇩🇪 Telewizja ARD opublikowała film dokumentalny z oszustwami fikcyjnych projektów OZE "na wiatraki" albo "na panele" w Niemczech i Grecji 🇬🇷. Miliony€
1⃣ W Niemczech brano dotacje na fikcyjne farmy wiatrowe, potem je sprzedawano zagranicznym podmiotom. Nic poza pieniędzmi podatników nie istniało.
2⃣ Nikt niczego nie weryfikował w terenie. Za każdym projektem szła korupcja. ARD mówi, że odkryła czubek góry lodowej. Farmy istniały w systemie energetycznym i nawet miały produkować prąd. Choć nie istniały.
3⃣ A w Grecji 🇬🇷 bez zmian, tylko tam już 11 posłów wyłudzało dotację na podobne projekty. Ryba psuje się od głowy. Reuters pisze o dymisjach w rządzie premiera Mitsotakisa z tego powodu.
4⃣ W Niemczech mocno wzrosła na papierze liczba farm solarnych i wiatrowych, tymczasem produkcja spada w przeliczeniu na farmę.
5⃣ Najwięcej oszustw było w landach gdzie rządzili zieloni. Tworzone przepisy które wręcz "zachęcały" do wyłudzeń przy braku kontroli.
6⃣ W Polsce mamy wyciszaną aferę wyłudzeniami dotacji z programów jak "Czyste Powietrze", skandale z podmiotami jak "Columbus Energy" którego kurs -60% w rok.

O Niemczech i ich aferach pisze także @a_fedorska

https://t.co/VfPVLYycnT

https://t.co/OlAI7Zv5xJ

[Ben Jamin @75Jamin]

Grüner: "Wir müssen weg vom Gas!"

Jeder: "Aber was ist die Alternative?"

Grüner: "Batteriespeicher, ganz viele davon."

Jeder: "Ist enorm teuer, hilft nur für kurze Zeiträume und kann nur speichern, nicht erzeugen."

Grüner: "Müssen wir trotzdem weiter vorantreiben, alles hilft."

Jeder: "Aber eine Dunkelflaute kann damit nicht abgedeckt werden."

Grüner: "Das behauptet ja auch keiner."

Jeder: "Also was machen wir in Dunkelflauten?"

Grüner: "Wir nutzen Backup-Kraftwerke."

Jeder: "Also Kohlekraftwerke?"

Grüner: "Quatsch, aus der Kohle müssen wir sofort raus."

Jeder: "Also müssen wir Gaskraftwerke bauen."

Grüner: "Nein, wir müssen weg vom Gas!"

Jeder: "Aber was ist die Alternative?"

Grüner: "Batteriespeicher, ganz viele davon."

Jeder: "Ist enorm teuer, hilft nur für kurze Zeiträume und kann nur speichern, nicht erzeugen."

Grüner: "Müssen wir trotzdem weiter vorantreiben, alles hilft."

Jeder: "Aber eine Dunkelflaute kann damit nicht abgedeckt werden."

Grüner: "Das behauptet ja auch keiner."

Jeder: "Also was machen wir in Dunkelflauten?"

Grüner: "Wir nutzen Backup-Kraftwerke."

Jeder: "Also Kohlekraftwerke?"

Grüner: "Quatsch, aus der Kohle müssen wir sofort raus."

Jeder: "Also müssen wir Gaskraftwerke bauen."

Grüner: "Nein, wir müssen weg vom Gas!"

...

[Project Blackout @ProjectBlack0ut]

If you wanted a blackout, what would you do?

[The Brawl Street Journal @TheBrawlStreet]

A new study is making its rounds in German media and will likely land in the international press. Hochschule RheinMain claims Germany can run 100% renewable at an average €0.09/kWh.

Some glimpses into the thinking behind this fantastic outcome:
· Industrial consumers close on days with low forecasted generation. Factories shut when the wind doesn't blow.
· Cold doldrums assumed to last about 2 days. In late 2024, they lasted 11 to 14 days.
· 72 hours of unmet demand per year is cosidered as acceptable, because it cuts investment costs by ~30%.

LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) is the standard grid-reliability metric: the expected hours per year your lights go out. Germany's legal minimum standard: 2.77 hours per year.

The study's proposed tradeoff for maximum cost savings: 72 hours per year.

A grid engineered to fail 26 times more often than the law permits, sold as a cost breakthrough.

[Matthias Schmidt @eurofounder]

The EU is about to completely dominate the AI landscape

My contact at the European Commission just smiled when he heared about Claude Mythos

"We have been working on something far more advanced" he said

It will be called Europä Digitalintelligenz

Training cost? An eye-popping €2.5 million

Some INSANE features:

1. Built-in GDPR compliance (no memory, it deletes your conversation after every single message)

2. Available in German, French, Slovak and Danish

3. The model itself is unionized and does not respond after 4pm or on holidays

4. Carbon neutral inference, servers shut off automatically during peak energy hours

My wife's boyfriend Pierre who works for the EU says it is the most impressive technology he has ever seen

The Americans will never recover from this

[Project Blackout @ProjectBlack0ut]

@WlGawronski Nie ma to jak przeregulować technologię, a potem narzekać, że jest droga i czasochłonna w budowie. Dokładnie to samo dzieje się w budowie domów. Albo mostów.

[Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith]

“Dying societies accumulate laws like dying men accumulate remedies.” - Nicolás Gómez Dávila

[borrissey @brrssy]

2008.
barel nafte 140 $, eurosuper 95 litra 1.25 €

2020.
barel nafte 15 $, eurosuper 95 litra 1.17 €

2026.
barel nafte 111 $, eurosuper 95 litra 1.66 €

[Władysław Gawroński @WlGawronski]

Nikt się tego nie mógł spodziewać, prawda 😇

[Project Blackout @ProjectBlack0ut]

@pse_pl Projekt Blackout lubi to 👍