BitPlayer

Posting projected odds for upcoming races based on DD betting in previous race. Using the whole set of DD probable payoffs, not just the will-pays.

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

Posting projected odds for upcoming races based on DD betting in previous race. Using the whole set of DD probable payoffs, not just the will-pays. Posting mostly for graded stakes races with 7 or more betting interests and undercard races on biggest days.

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#SantaAnitaPark
6/14/26
Race 9 - San Juan Capistrano
# Projected Odds
1 27.4
2 29.6
3 SCR
4 4.6
5 7.2
6 0.4
7 30.5
8 112.4
9 18.8
10 19.1

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

Later Than Planned (#2) was bet more heavily in the Pk3 will-pays and, based on those, projects to go off at 3.9.

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#SantaAnitaPark
6/13/26
Race 8 - Daytona
# Projected Odds
1 12.0
2 6.6
3 9.9
4 4.4
5 20.6
6 37.4
7 12.9
8 9.1
9 35.7
10 SCR
11 6.2
12 2.3
13 SCR

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

Dazzling Dame (#6) is favored in the Pk3 will-pays and, based on those, projects to go off at 2.0.

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#DelawarePark
6/13/26
Race 11 - Delaware Oaks
# Projected Odds
1 4.0
2 2.3
3 7.1
4 114.9
5 14.0
6 3.7
7 2.2
8 SCR
9 SCR

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#DelawarePark
6/13/26
Race 10 - Delaware Derby
# Projected Odds
1 8.8
2 16.2
3 2.9
4 SCR
5 1.9
6 1.6
7 13.5

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#MonmouthPark
6/13/26
Race 9 - Salvator Mile
# Projected Odds
1 SCR
2 5.3
3 4.8
4 6.9
5 SCR
6 1.1
7 55.5
8 SCR
9 3.6

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#DelawarePark
6/13/26
Race 9 - Cape Henlopen
# Projected Odds
1 2.7
2 13.3
3 151.1
4 16.2
5 1.2
6 8.4
7 6.6
8 8.3
9 SCR
10 45.6

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

#MonmouthPark
6/13/26
Race 4 - Eatontown
# Projected Odds
1 1.5
2 91.5
3 SCR
4 13.8
5 SCR
6 7.8
7 0.8
8 93.2

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

Field size has a mild positive effect. Not significant: distance, surface, off-turf, wet tracks, scratches, payout size, day of meet, first/last-leg winner odds. 8/8

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

I gave Claude’s new Fable model all the data I had regarding the 2025 Saratoga meet and asked it what factors cause Pick-3, 4, and 5 sequences to over- and underpay relative to win probabilities imputed from the exacta pool. Its findings below. 1/8

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

Also notable: Late Pk5s are far more volatile than Early. Late is overrepresented in both extreme quartiles. 7/8

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

@SteveDebattista Absolutely. It's too early to put much stock in any of the 2026 numbers.

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

The table below shows how much a player would have lost at Saratoga by betting enough on each horse to get paid $1000 if the horse won at the odds imputed from listed pools. In 2025, the other pools performed better than the win pool (which loses the takeout plus breakage). 1/2

[BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds]

It will be interesting to see how NYRA’s new CAW guardrails affect the sharpness of the exotic pools in 2026. Late scratch races were omitted. The decrease in the win pool loss rate from 2025 to 2026 is due to the advent of penny breakage at NYRA in September 2025. 2/2