PropSims

10,000-sim NFL + NBA fantasy/DFS. Free beta. Ask who to start. Discord: · 21+. Not betting advice.

[PropSims @PropSims]

PropSims Discord is live.

Free beta community:
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• Official props board + graded recaps
• /startsit and /record in-chat

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21+ · Not betting advice

[PropSims @PropSims]

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[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 Stop screenshotting projection tables. Download the whole week for free.

🎯 Week 5 projections for 351 players, the start/sit head-to-head matrices and every logged prop forecast are free fantasy football and DFS bulk files, no paywall.

#FantasyFootball #DFS

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔗 https://t.co/objbs6Hin2 21+

[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 49ers 32, Seahawks 29. Our total of 45.9 said under 46.5: it went over ❌.

📊 Total: we projected 45.9, the market had 46.5, the game finished with 61 points, over ❌. Spread: we made Seahawks -4 against a market of -3, which put us on the Seahawks side; the margin was 49ers by 3, so 49ers covered ❌. Moneyline: we had Seahawks at 61% to win; 49ers won ❌.

🎯 Player props we posted: Emanuel Wilson under 1.5 receptions on @FDSportsbook: finished with 2 ❌; AJ Barner under 2.5 receptions on Underdog: finished with 3 ❌; George Kittle under 4.5 receptions on Underdog: finished with 5 ❌. 0 of 3 hit.

🏈 Fantasy (PPR), actual vs our median: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 22.8 vs our median 21.7; Christian McCaffrey 17.3 vs our median 18.6; Brock Purdy 14.2 vs our median 16.8; Sam Darnold 8.3 vs our median 16.1. Biggest miss: Sam Darnold, 7.8 below it. 6 of 6 top players finished inside our floor-to-ceiling range.

21+ #SFvsSEA #GoHawks

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔗 https://t.co/K8ohzBJo8g 21+

[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 Lions 45, Cardinals 21. Our take, the under 54.5 (we projected 46.1): it went over ❌.

📊 Total: we projected 46.1, the market had 54.5, the game finished with 66 points, over ❌. Spread: we made Cardinals +3.6 against a market of +5.5, which put us on the Cardinals side; the margin was Lions by 24, so Lions covered ❌. Moneyline: we had Lions at 64% to win; Lions won ✅.

🎯 Player props we posted: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 6.5 receptions on @FDSportsbook: finished with 6 ✅; Jahmyr Gibbs under 4.5 receptions on FanDuel: finished with 5 ❌; Sione Vaki under 8.5 rushing yards on FanDuel: finished with 11 ❌. 1 of 3 hit.

🏈 Fantasy (PPR), actual vs our median: Jahmyr Gibbs 37.7 vs our median 27.4; Trey McBride 21.6 vs our median 21.1; Amon-Ra St. Brown 12.9 vs our median 20.7; Michael Wilson 7.3 vs our median 18.2. Biggest beat: Jared Goff, 11.2 above our median. Biggest miss: Michael Wilson, 10.9 below it. 5 of 6 top players finished inside our floor-to-ceiling range.

✅ Our start call, Jahmyr Gibbs: 37.7 PPR against a published median of 27.4.

21+ #DETvsARI #BirdGang

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔗 Every call and every play, wins and losses: https://t.co/TvjFqHuIYF 21+

[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 The late Sunday games are final, and here is how our pre-kickoff calls did against Vegas. Accuracy score: 33%, 3 of 9 spread, total and moneyline calls right. We were closer to the final than the market on 1 of 6 lines (17%).

📏 Spreads: 1-2 against the number (33%). Closer than Vegas in 1 of 3 games; average miss 9.5 points for us, 9.0 for the market.

📊 Over/unders: 0-3 against the number (0%). Closer than Vegas in 0 of 3 games; average miss 14.0 points for us, 9.5 for the market.

🏆 Moneyline: our favorite won 2 of 3 (67%). We and the market had the same favorite in every game. Brier score (lower is better): ours 0.203, the market's 0.204.

📈 Sunday so far (early and late): accuracy 58%, 18 of 31 calls; spreads 7-3-1, over/unders 4-7, our favorite 7-3; closer than Vegas on 11 of 22 lines.

🧮 Fantasy projections: our median missed by 5.5 PPR on average across 35 players, and 29 of 35 (83%) finished inside our floor-to-ceiling range, where a well-calibrated range holds 75%. Using each player's season average as the projection would have missed by 6.3 (5.5 for us on the same 35 players).

❌ Worst: Lions at Cardinals finished 45-21. We had the Lions by 3.6 and 46.1 total points; Vegas had the Lions by 5.5 and 54.5.

🎯 Every +EV play so far this week (all logged before kickoff, 1 unit each at the listed price): 239-297 on 536 graded, -31.6 units (-5.9% ROI).

📋 Props 207-247, -23.2; Game lines 32-50, -8.5. Props include our tracked receptions plays: 14-16, -1.3.

🧾 The late Sunday games only: 56-60, +0.5 units (+0.4%).

🎲 Underdog and PrizePicks plays (no price, so no units): 130-110, a 54% hit rate.

✅ Best hits: Jared Goff over 0.5 anytime TD at +1100 on FanDuel (finished with 1); RJ Harvey under 3.5 receptions at +130 on FanDuel (finished with 0); Amon-Ra St. Brown under 6.5 receptions at +120 on FanDuel (finished with 6).

❌ Highest-rated misses: Kaelon Black over 0.5 anytime TD at +800 on FanDuel (finished with 0); Bo Nix over 0.5 anytime TD at +410 on FanDuel (finished with 0); Oronde Gadsden II over 0.5 anytime TD at +330 on FanDuel (finished with 0).

📅 Season to date (book-priced props logged, Week 4 on, plus this week): 459-551, -72.8 units (-7.2% ROI).

📝 Wins, losses and pushes are all counted; pushes are not losses.

21+ #NFLPicks #NFLSunday

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔗 https://t.co/B9RbwpX94x 21+

[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 Broncos 23, Chargers 17. Our total of 47.0 said over 42.5: it went under ❌.

📊 Total: we projected 47.0, the market had 42.5, the game finished with 40 points, under ❌. Spread: we made Chargers +4.8 against a market of +3.5, which put us on the Broncos side; the margin was Broncos by 6, so Broncos covered ✅. Moneyline: we had Broncos at 68% to win; Broncos won ✅.

🎯 Player props we posted: RJ Harvey under 3.5 receptions on @FDSportsbook: finished with 0 ✅; Oronde Gadsden II under 3.5 receptions on Underdog: finished with 0 ✅. 2 of 2 hit.

🏈 Fantasy (PPR), actual vs our median: Bo Nix 7.9 vs our median 15.7; Justin Herbert 10.2 vs our median 14.3; Jaylen Waddle 4.8 vs our median 13.1; Tre Harris 3.6 vs our median 11.1. Biggest beat: J.K. Dobbins, 5.7 above our median. Biggest miss: RJ Harvey, 10.3 below it. 4 of 6 top players finished inside our floor-to-ceiling range.

21+ #DENvsLAC #BoltUp

[PropSims @PropSims]

Every prop and game line with our numbers is free here: https://t.co/OGW6qDf9C2

[PropSims @PropSims]

🎯 Jeremiyah Love: our numbers vs the books are holding up in the 4th quarter.

📊 Our numbers vs the books:
• Receptions: our median 2, line 2.5 (under)
• Rushing yards: our median 40, line 49.5 (under)

📍 Where he is (4th quarter, the Cardinals down 45-21): 12 carries for 22 yards and 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target. That's 2.2 PPR against our 12.2 median.

✅ Receptions under 2.5: 0 so far, on track
⏳ Rushing yards under 49.5: 22 so far, still live

Every prop with our median next to the line is free at https://t.co/3Ojbm5OvOV 👇

21+ #FantasyFootball #NFLSunday

[PropSims @PropSims]

Every player's floor, median and ceiling is free here: https://t.co/6jxTXs8Tcx

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔥 Mike Evans is going OFF for the 49ers

📊 7 catches for 113 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets. That's 24.3 PPR with the 49ers down 26-21 (11:10 - 4th Quarter).

🎯 Our sims had him as a start: WR23, 11.8 PPR median.
🚀 Our ceiling (85th percentile of 10,000 sims) was 22.3. He's already past it, a top-15% outcome, with time left on the clock.

💡 His ceiling was 1.9x his median, a wide range, and today he landed in the top slice of it.

Every player's floor, median and ceiling is free at https://t.co/3Ojbm5OvOV 👇

#FantasyFootball #NFLSunday

[PropSims @PropSims]

@FantasyPros Age is just a number. Beast

[PropSims @PropSims]

Every prop and game line with our numbers is free here: https://t.co/OGW6qDf9C2

[PropSims @PropSims]

🎯 Jacoby Brissett: some of our lines are cashing and some have missed. Full scorecard from the 4th quarter.

📊 Our numbers vs the books:
• Interceptions: our median 0, line 0.5 (under)
• Passing TDs: our median 1, line 1.5 (under)
• Rushing yards: our median 6, line 8.5 (under)

📍 Where he is (4th quarter, the Cardinals down 38-14): 22/35 for 232 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and 1 carry for 1 yards and 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 target. That's 17.1 PPR against our 17.9 median.

📉 Interceptions under 0.5: 1 so far, missed
📉 Passing TDs under 1.5: 2 so far, missed
✅ Rushing yards under 8.5: 1 so far, on track

Every prop with our median next to the line is free at https://t.co/3Ojbm5OvOV 👇

21+ #FantasyFootball #NFLSunday

[PropSims @PropSims]

Every player's floor, median and ceiling is free here: https://t.co/6jxTXs8Tcx

[PropSims @PropSims]

🚑 Deebo Samuel Sr. is OUT for the rest of the game.

📉 He leaves with 2.5 PPR (2 carries for 4 yards and 2 catches for 21 yards on 3 targets) against our 10.1 median. If he's in your lineup, today's damage is done.

🏃 Mike Evans is the top remaining WR on our board for the 49ers. He's already at 12.8 PPR (3 catches for 38 yards and 1 TD on 6 targets) with the 49ers down 26-21 in the 3rd quarter. Our pregame median for him was 11.8 with Sr. active, so anything from here is upside.

👀 Watch his status for next week. Our projections update automatically as the injury report comes out.

#FantasyFootball #49ers

https://t.co/NwSzhEcn82

[Ian Rapoport @RapSheet]

#49ers WR Deebo Samuel has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

[PropSims @PropSims]

Every prop and game line with our numbers is free here: https://t.co/OGW6qDf9C2

[PropSims @PropSims]

🎯 Jared Goff: some of our lines are cashing and some have missed. Full scorecard from the 4th quarter.

📊 Our numbers vs the books:
• Interceptions: our median 0, line 0.5 (under)
• Passing TDs: our median 1, line 2.5 (under)

📍 Where he is (4th quarter, the Lions up 38-14): 16/25 for 232 yards, 3 TDs and 1 carry for 1 yards and 1 TD. That's 27.4 PPR against our 17.7 median.

✅ Interceptions under 0.5: 0 so far, on track
📉 Passing TDs under 2.5: 3 so far, missed

Every prop with our median next to the line is free at https://t.co/3Ojbm5OvOV 👇

21+ #FantasyFootball #NFLSunday