PropSims

Every NFL & NBA game simulated 10,000 times 🏈🏀 Free picks, props, DFS + a graded public record. 21+
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[PropSims @PropSims]

🧾 Receipts, Nov 11: sims 7-2 on winners · 🏀 NBA bets 5-5 (+0.1u)

Every sim and every public bet we published, graded against the real final. Misses included, that's the point.

🎲 Sims, right winner: 7 of 9 games (NBA). (1 more we called a coin flip.)
Decent night. We'll mention it only four or five more times.

🎯 Closest calls
✅ Warriors at Rockets: the sims' median 108-117, final 108-115 (Warriors score exactly right; both scores within 3)
✅ Thunder at Trail Blazers: the sims' median 112-114, final 108-118 (total off by 0)
✅ Nuggets at Grizzlies: our posted typical game 117-108, final 123-118 (margin off by 4)

❌ Biggest miss: Nets at Pelicans. The sims' median 112-119, final 145-111. Margin off by 41.

💵 NBA DFS value plays: 5 of 10 hit 5x salary on FanDuel (De'Aaron Fox 43.3, Day'Ron Sharpe 40.3, Danny Wolf 36.2).

📒 Public bets, Nov 11
🏀 NBA: 5-5, +0.1u · best: Damian Lillard UNDER 2.5 threes +132 (williamhill_us) +1.32u

📒 Season tracker (1 unit per bet, at the price we posted)
🏀 NBA props: 144-123 · +21.7u · +8.1% ROI · CLV +3.2¢
🏈 NFL props + lines: 960-964-3 · -25.8u · -1.3% ROI · CLV +2.8¢

👉 Every game and every bet, misses included: our Receipts and Record pages (site link in bio).

#NBA

21+ · Not betting advice · Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER

[PropSims @PropSims]

🧾 2-2: our posted prices from Commanders at Giants, graded

❌ Jayden Daniels UNDER 1.5 passing TDs -190 (betPARX): 3
✅ J.J. McCarthy UNDER 1.5 passing TDs -181 (Pinnacle): 1
✅ Chig Okonkwo OVER 3.5 catches -135 (Pinnacle): 4
❌ Rachaad White UNDER 10.5 carries -103 (betPARX): 11

📏 Good prices lose and bad prices win. What we control is whether the price beat the market, so that sits next to every result.

21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER. Not betting advice. #WASvsNYG #NFLBets

[PropSims @PropSims]

⏱️ How our sim game compared. The most typical of our 10,000 sims had the Giants winning 21-17. Final: Commanders 24, Giants 21. ❌ Different winner. Total points: sim 38, real 45.

Top performers, sim vs real:
• Jayden Daniels: sim 122, real 249 passing yds
• Rachaad White: sim 57, real 47 rushing yds
• Stefon Diggs: sim 45, real 83 receiving yds
• J.J. McCarthy: sim 175, real 293 passing yds
• Cam Skattebo: sim 51, real 78 rushing yds
• Isaiah Likely: sim 58, real 127 receiving yds

21+. Not betting advice.

[PropSims @PropSims]

We simulated Commanders at Giants 10,000 times 🏈
✅ Giants win 55% of them

🎬 Here's the most typical game, start to finish: Giants 21, Commanders 17 👇

📋 Every snap shows the coverage each defense actually plays this season, and every catch, carry and kick adds up to that game's box score.

🧪 Not a prediction: the 10,000 are the signal.

21+ · Not betting advice · Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER

#WASvsNYG

[PropSims @PropSims]

🏈 FINAL: Commanders 24, Giants 21
❌ We made the Giants -3.8 vs a market of -1.5 (Giants side): Commanders covered

📊 GAME LINES
❌ Total: ours 39.4 · market 41 · final 45 (over)
❌ Spread: ours Giants -3.8 · market -1.5 (Giants side) · Commanders by 3, Commanders covered
❌ Moneyline: Giants at 61% to win · Commanders won

🎯 PROPS WE POSTED: 0 of 2 hit
❌ Cam Skattebo UNDER 1.5 receptions (Underdog): 3
❌ Darnell Mooney UNDER 1.5 receptions (Underdog): 2

🧮 FANTASY (PPR), actual vs our median
⭐ Jayden Daniels: 20.8 (median 14.1)
⭐ Malik Nabers: 7.4 (median 13.8)
⭐ J.J. McCarthy: 17.1 (median 13.5)
⭐ Rachaad White: 6.2 (median 11.6)
📈 Biggest beat: Isaiah Likely, 17.4 above our median
📉 Biggest miss: Malik Nabers, 6.4 below it
🎯 4 of 6 top players finished inside our floor-to-ceiling range

📌 Our start call, Malik Nabers: 7.4 PPR vs a published median of 13.8.

21+ #WASvsNYG #TogetherBlue

[PropSims @PropSims]

🔄 Jayden Daniels picked off by A. Washington. Giants 21-17, 2:19 left in the 4th.

Our sims gave Jayden Daniels a 13% chance to throw 2+ picks. That's 2.

#TNF

[PropSims @PropSims]

⏰ Last call: Commanders at Giants, kickoff 7:15 PM CT

🚑 FINAL INJURY CHECK
• Commanders: Athan Kaliakmanis (QB) and Tanoa Togiai (G) and Lucas Patrick (G) out; on defense, Isaac Yiadom (CB) and Ricky Barber (DT) out.
• Giants: Josh Sills (G) and J.C. Davis (OT) out; on defense, Malik Harrison (LB) and Nikko Reed (CB) and CJ Okoye (DT) out.

💸 Prices move until kickoff, so check the line shop before you click. Then go enjoy the game.

21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER. Not betting advice. #TNF #WASvsNYG

[PropSims @PropSims]

📈 Isaiah Likely is past his ceiling for the Giants

🏈 9 catches for 127 yards and 1 TD on 11 targets
✅ 27.7 PPR so far, the Giants up 20-17 (8:13 - 4th Quarter)

🎯 Our sims: start, TE12, 10.3 PPR median
📏 Ceiling (85th percentile of 10,000 sims): 18.7. Already past it, a top-15% outcome, with time left
💡 His ceiling was 1.8x his median, a wide range, and today he's in the top slice of it

Every player's floor, median and ceiling is free at 👇
#FantasyFootball #TNF

[PropSims @PropSims]

@RixSignal Not a full half, actually. The clock says the second quarter is nearly done, so comfy is doing some heavy lifting here.

[PropSims @PropSims]

⏱️ Halftime check on the sim

🏈 Real: Commanders 10, Giants 7
🎲 Typical sim (of 10,000): Commanders 14, Giants 3
✅ Same team in front · points off by 4 (Commanders) and 4 (Giants)

👇 Full-game comparison after the final whistle, hits and misses.

21+ · Not betting advice

[PropSims @PropSims]

🎯 Miles Bridges UNDER 0.5 blocks · -123 at DraftKings

🧮 Our number: 58% · the book's: 52% (vig removed)
💡 Why: our sims have him at 0 blocks in 30 minutes (median of the sims he plays)
🧪 UNTESTED: Blocks unders; forward record 21-13, +26.6% ROI on 34 graded bets

➕ Also: Oso Ighodaro UNDER 0.5 blocks (+127, DraftKings) · UNTESTED

📒 Receipts
📈 Every NBA pick we've posted: 144-123, +21.6u, +8.1% ROI, CLV +3.2¢
⚖️ Split: tested 61-55, +6.2u · untested 83-68, +15.4u
🏷️ All our public blocks picks: 29-24, +6.2u

🏀 Hornets at Suns · logged before tip, graded after, misses included

#NBA #NBAProps #HornetsSuns

21+ · Not betting advice · Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER

[PropSims @PropSims]

🎲 We simulated Hornets at Suns 10,000 times

🎬 Most typical game, start to finish: Suns 114, Hornets 108 👇
✅ Suns win 63% of our sims
📏 Suns -6.5 covers 47% (the market line)
🔼 Total 214.5 goes over 64%

📊 Full box score, every shot and the all-sims numbers are in the video

#NBA #CHAvsPHX

21+ · Not betting advice · Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER

[PropSims @PropSims]

⏰ Starters set: DAL at MIN

🏀 DAL: Flagg, Martin, Irving, Washington, Gafford
🏀 MIN: Dosunmu, McDaniels, Ball, Kuminga, Gobert

⭐ Top projection: Cooper Flagg, 44.1 FanDuel pts