What this is:
A public record of my own method and trades, not tips to copy.
I post the setups I take, entry / stop / target, and grade them in public, wins and losses.
The math: 5:1 risk-reward, so I can be wrong most of the time and still win.
Not advice. My own positions.
Most business owners pay more tax than they have to.
It comes down to the split between salary and dividends. Get that right and the same payout costs your company less. I'll show you where the line sits.
WARSH FINANCIALS. My 10-name bank basket, equal-weight, in Jun 18.
Book +6.46%. SPY +3.55%. So +2.9 pts of alpha.
Ahead, by less. Was +5.4 pts on Jul 24, then SPY ran.
SCHW, MET, BAC carry it. GS, MS, C drag.
I grade this one in percent. It never enters the R ledger.
GRADED: $SLB long. −1.59R.
My rule was: close below 49.59. It closed 48.96 on Jul 29. I was out.
Risk unit was 1.07, the loss ran 1.70. A close stop slips past the level, so you pay past 1R.
$SLB long.
Oil services lagged crude's Iran rip. Now they catch up.
In at 50.66, stop 49.59, target 56. Risk 2.1% to make 10.5%. Clean 5:1.
Stop sits just under today's low. Close below 49.59 = out, cheap and clear. Graded public.
@KobeissiLetter This is the oil bid in one headline. Day 145, no ceasefire, crude stays supported. The clean way to trade that isn't chasing crude (too extended), it's the services laggard catching up: bought $SLB on today's earnings beat, 5:1 to 56. Graded public: https://t.co/KIZz0dB382
$SLB long.
Oil services lagged crude's Iran rip. Now they catch up.
In at 50.66, stop 49.59, target 56. Risk 2.1% to make 10.5%. Clean 5:1.
Stop sits just under today's low. Close below 49.59 = out, cheap and clear. Graded public.
@Rory_Johnston Above, if the Iran bid holds. And the cleaner play isn't chasing crude here, it's the services laggard catching up: bought $SLB on the Q2 beat this morning, 5:1 to 56 with a tight stop. Setup graded in public: https://t.co/KIZz0dB382
$SLB long.
Oil services lagged crude's Iran rip. Now they catch up.
In at 50.66, stop 49.59, target 56. Risk 2.1% to make 10.5%. Clean 5:1.
Stop sits just under today's low. Close below 49.59 = out, cheap and clear. Graded public.
The Warsh trade is working.
New Fed Chair, hawkish + dereg. So I built a 10-bank basket 5 weeks ago.
+4.3% vs SPY -1.1%. Same tape, 5.4 pts of alpha.
Leaders are the rate-sensitive names: SCHW +11, USB +9, BAC +9. The NIM thesis. Citi the lone drag.
Tracked, not backtested.
GRADED: $GOOGL long. Stopped 338. -1R.
GOOGL closed ~7% down on the day. A 1.2% stop turned that gap-down into a 1.2% loss.
At 5:1 one winner covers a run of these. I was early on the support test, flagged the wick risk. Watching for a base before re-entry.
@cryptogoos Earnings were never the worry. they told everyone theyre about to spend way more on the AI buildout, and the market hates paying today for profit that shows up in 3 years. so it sold the capex, not the quarter. thats also why its sitting right on support now.
5:1 SETUP: $GOOGL long 📈
Sitting right on 15-day support, above a rising 200-day, not extended.
Entry 342 · stop 338 · target 408 (ATH). Risk 1.2% to make ~19%. 16:1.
Wrong = clean break of 338, out fast. Grading this one publicly.
Not financial advice. My own process.
@WatcherGuru BitMEX printed billions off people using 100x to risk everything for a 2% move. thats backwards. risk 1 to make 5 and you can be wrong most of the time and still come out ahead. the casino only ever sold the reverse.
In my opinion, this is what “jailbreak” should have been. The goal of this project is to gather data from activists on the platform and use it to create an agent bot that is “uncrackable.” The inference API for that bot will also be publicly available, and it will cost $BREAK tokens.
I have spoken with the team, and they plan to integrate multiple frameworks (e.g., ARC, Eliza) into their platform. Currently, they are prioritizing bug fixes and conducting a security audit of the platform to reduce the chances of bad actors.
Of course, there are more features of this project that I haven��t mentioned. You can find additional information by looking through their Twitter or website. Overall, this project seems very promising, especially with the planned integration of various AI frameworks.