P(uck)Value

Random sports analytics thoughts, mainly on hockey

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

@chadgordon09 @emilyehman @Pitt_VB @DaytonVB @CreightonVB @KUVolleyball @WKUVolleyball @HuskerVB @BYUwvolleyball @PurdueVB @GopherVBall Interesting to see no SEC OH's here. Would be curious to see how value added by position differs by conference

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

@chadgordon09 @emilyehman @PurdueVB @FSU_Volleyball @OleMissVB @OregonVB @DaytonVB @SMUVolleyball Might be good to do that for all skills, right?

Just feels weird that a player can be seen as "less valuable" just because their coach/conference scheduled fewer matches or they played well enough that their team played fewer sets.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Going forward, I want to look at whether playstyle (high-event vs defense first) affects these trends, especially when looking at the playoffs.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Looking at the average goal difference in wins vs losses, it's interesting to see the disparities in means for the Kraken and Penguins, who generally played well in wins and stuck around during losses, compared to the Capitals (who generally had bad losses and tight wins).

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

It's also interesting to see the Panthers grading out so well in home advantage, considering they were negative in that regard this season and for much of the sample represented here have had lower attendance than much of the league. Seems like crowd size isn't everything.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Finally, I looked at the average home ice advantage for every team for the past 5 regular seasons. I'll note that I did not average seasons separately first, so the 20-21 season is less represented due to the shorter length.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Not sure when I'll get to it, but I do want to look at what parts of the game impact home ice most (whether it be the last change, special teams, or intangibles/fans).

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

I'd like to look at this on a longer time scale in the future, but I do not have the time to gather and treat the data at the moment.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

I decided to briefly look into how time has impacted home advantage, and found some interesting results. First of all, I expected that home ice would not matter as much in the 20-21 regular season, as I assumed fewer fans would mean less advantage. This was not the case.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

While it could be an issue in my treatment of the data, it appears that the season with fewer fans had a higher home ice advantage than surrounding seasons. It is also interesting to note that home ice has lost impact in the past 5 years, although it reboundd slightly last year.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Especially interesting seeing as Edmonton won 2 of 3 home games in the SCF, while losing 3 of 4 away games. Perhaps the series would have gone the other way had Edmonton played Game 7 at home.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Following from the last two posts, here's the average goal difference between home and away games for each team in the 23-24 regular season. Once again, Edmonton and Colorado stand out significantly.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Similar to last week's post, this chart looks at teams' goal concession during the regular season. COL again shows up as a major outlier, although it is surpassed by CHI and VGK.
Once again, data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

[P(uck)Value @PuckValue]

Goal Scoring Home/Away Trends - 2023
Interesting to note that the two best home offensive teams in the league (COL and EDM) also displayed the largest disparity between their home and away scoring (number above the line).
Data Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick