Puls Quant

Quant signals for Polymarket & Kalshi ⚡
+17.4pts edge Argentina WC | 61.7% WR • 733 signals
No filler. Only edge-positive picks.
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[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Matchday 2 reshuffled the board. 🌍

The favorites tightened their grip:
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England → 99.6% to advance after a 4-2 statement
🇨🇴 Colombia → 98%, Group K all but locked
🇬🇭 Ghana → 73.5%, clawing right back in
🇵🇹 Portugal → 93.3% even after dropping points

But qualifying isn't the real story. Winning it all is.

Our model's #1 pick to lift the trophy @FIFAWorldCup :
🇦🇷 Argentina — 27.1%

@PolymarketSport ? Argentina sits 4th at 12% — and just dropped another 2%.

France, Spain and England all priced ahead of them. The market still hasn't caught up.

The gap is the edge. 📈

Follow for live model vs market updates all tournament long. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

@FOS

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

The GOAT writes one more page. 🐐

Messi tying Klose at 39 — and the model saw Argentina's surge coming before the tournament even started.

We flagged them undervalued back on May 9: market had them at 8.6¢, we had 26%. That edge has already played out (+35%).

The favorites are showing why. Argentina now 99.9% to qualify.

Follow for live model updates all tournament long. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

We called it Superstar Tuesday. 🦸

Messi hat-trick. Mbappé brace. Haaland brace.
Three legends, one night — and the model felt it instantly:

🇦🇷 Argentina → 99.9% to qualify
🇫🇷 France → 99.9%
🇳🇴 Norway → 35.4% to 93.8%, the biggest single-game
jump of the whole tournament.

The favorites just sent a message. We've got the full
breakdown pinned. 👀

Follow for live model updates all tournament long. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

@FIFAWorldCup Ronaldo's 6th World Cup starts here. 🐐

Our model: Portugal 85% to win tonight, predicted 2-0.
The closest thing to a lock on today's slate.

6 World Cups. 0 titles. The model gives Portugal 8%
to finally change that.

The last dance deserves a trophy. 🇵🇹

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

History on the pitch. And a story off it.

Messi's hat-trick should've moved the market.
Instead Polymarket dropped Argentina to 11.7%.

Our model has them at 26.2% to win it all — the biggest
mispricing we've tracked all tournament.

Mbappé, Haaland, Messi all delivered. The market still
isn't paying attention. 👀

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

We posted this on May 9th. 38 days before kickoff. 📅

🇦🇷 Argentina — "the biggest gap we've ever detected."
Back then: our model 25.9%, @Polymarket 8.6%.

Since then? Argentina won 3-0. Messi scored a hat-trick. ⚽🐐

The market today? Still has them at 11.7%.
Our model: 26.2%.
A 14-point gap. On a $2.5 BILLION market. 💰

To be clear — no team is a lock, and we'd never call one. 🚫
Football breaks models every single day.

But here's the magic of prediction markets 🪄
👉 You don't have to hold until the final.

Anyone who entered when we flagged it on May 9 is already
up more than 35% 📈 — and we haven't even reached the knockouts.

🧠 The skill isn't picking the @FIFAWorldCup winner.
It's spotting a price that's too low, waiting for the market
to move, and exiting when the edge has played out.

🎯 Find the gap.
⏳ Wait.
🚪 Exit when it's time.

We also flagged England as overpriced that day. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
38 days later: still ~10% on the market, under 6% on our model —
and tonight it predicts a 2-2 draw with Croatia.

We didn't get lucky. We published the numbers first. 📌

🇦🇷 Argentina was on sale. The smart money already moved. 🛒

Follow for every edge before the market wakes up. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Tonight's model calls. No certainties — just the edges worth watching. 👇

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs 🇭🇷 Croatia — the contrarian one.
Everyone expects England to walk through this.
The model gives them just 42% to win tonight. Predicted: 2-2.
England qualify 95% of the time across the group — but Modrić and
Croatia are very much live. Maybe not the routine win the market prices.

🇬🇭 Ghana vs ��🇦 Panama.
The model leans Panama at 48%. Predicted: Panama 1-0.
A quiet upset call. We'll see if it holds.

🇵🇹 Portugal vs 🇨🇩 DR Congo — Ronaldo's 6th World Cup begins.
Portugal 85% to win. Predicted 2-0. The closest thing to a lock tonight.

🇨🇴 Colombia vs 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan — late kickoff.
Colombia 86% to win. Predicted 2-0. Quietly one of the most complete
teams in the draw.

Yesterday Ivory Coast beat Ecuador with a 90th-minute winner.
Proof that no probability is a promise.

The model finds edges. Football decides the rest.

Follow for live model updates all tournament long. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Three legends. One night. The favorites just sent a message. 🦸

🇦🇷 Messi: hat-trick vs Algeria. 3-0.
Argentina now 99.9% to exit the group. WIN probability: 26.2%.
The market still has them at ~10%. The gap keeps growing.

🇫🇷 Mbappé: 2 goals vs Senegal. France 3-1.
99.9% to qualify. WIN probability: 15.9%.
The trap game we flagged? They walked right through it.

🇳🇴 Haaland: 2 goals. Norway 4-1 Iraq.
Norway: 35.4% → 93.8% to qualify.
The biggest single-game jump of the entire tournament.
We called them a dark horse before kickoff. Nobody believed it.

Tonight, the model has 4 calls — and one of them goes against everyone.
Dropping in the next tweet 👇

Follow so you don't miss it. ⚡

[FIFA World Cup @FIFAWorldCup]

It's what he does.

#FIFAWorldCup

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

The model loves France tonight. 🇫🇷

WIN probability for the tournament: 15.7%
Highest of any team. Higher than Spain. Higher than England.

But Senegal sits at 63.0% to qualify.
Mané is fit. The African champions don't travel to New York
to lose quietly.

This is our #1 trap game of the group stage.

France wins — but not easily.

Follow for live model updates all night. ⚡ #FRASEN

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

@fifaworldcup_fr @equipedefrance @GaindeYi Model says 🇫🇷 France — but this is our #1 trap game
of the group stage.

Senegal: 63.0% to qualify.
Mané is fit. Koulibaly at the back.

France 99.2% to exit the group — but tonight
won't be comfortable.

Follow for live updates. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

https://t.co/lyxMP25pvb

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Tonight's signals 🌙

⚽ France vs. Senegal — 9PM CET
🇮🇶 Iraq vs. Norway — Midnight CET
🇦🇷 Argentina vs. Algeria — 3AM CET

Here's the breakdown 👇

——

🇫🇷 France vs. Senegal
Model: France 65.5% to win. On paper it makes sense.
But the market is missing the fire. 🔥

In January, Senegal beat Morocco in the AFCON final (1-0 a.e.t.) — then CAF stripped the title on a technicality.
The whole squad still carries that robbery. 😤
Tonight isn't just 3 points. It's revenge.
Watch for the trap. ⚠️

——

🇳🇴 Iraq vs. Norway
Norway 81.5%. One of the cleanest edges of the night. ✅
No need to overthink it.

——

🇦🇷 Argentina vs. Algeria
Argentina 68.5% to win tonight.
But the real number is this 👇

📊 26.2% to win the tournament
📉 Market sitting at 9%
⚡ +17pts of edge

One match doesn't move the needle.
10,000+ full-tournament simulations do.

——

Follow for daily signals. Full breakdown on Telegram.
Link below. 👇

@FIFAcom @PolymarketSport

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Balanced on the scoreboard. Not in the model.

🇨🇻 Cape Verde: 25.7% to hold Spain → ✅
🇪🇬 Egypt: 52.3% to get a point → ✅
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 50.4% → ✅
🇳🇿 New Zealand: 49.3% → 2-2 ✅

We flagged all 4 before kickoff.

Today France, Argentina and Norway enter the picture.

The edges don't disappear. They just move. 👀

Follow for live model updates. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

@WorldCupMedia_ We had New Zealand at 49.3% to qualify before this match.

Nobody was talking about them.

Iran drops to 74.8%. NZL rises to 49.3%.

Group G is now completely open.

Follow for live model updates all tournament long. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

We flagged all 4 as danger games before kickoff.

🇨🇻 Cape Verde: 25.7% to hold Spain → they did.
🇪🇬 Egypt: 52.3% to get a point vs Belgium → they did.
🇳🇿 New Zealand: 49.3% to qualify → 2-2 vs Iran.
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 50.4% → 1-1 vs exhausted Uruguay.

The model doesn't bet. It just finds the edges. 👀

Follow for today's danger games → France, Argentina up next. ⚡

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

Iran 2-2 New Zealand was always the danger game.

Before kickoff we had NZL at 49.3% to qualify.
Nobody was talking about them.

4 draws in one day. We flagged all 4 matches as
high-risk before kickoff.

Cape Verde. Egypt. NZL. Saudi Arabia.

The model doesn't care about reputation. 👀

Follow for today's edges → France, Argentina, Norway up next.

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

The model agrees — yesterday was draw day, today the heavy
favorites assert themselves.

🇫🇷 France: 99.2% to exit the group
🇦🇷 Argentina: 99.6% — WIN probability 26.2% for the tournament
🇳🇴 Norway: Haaland + 8 wins out of 8 in qualifiers

After 4 draws yesterday, the market is sleeping on the
favorites. That's exactly where the edge is. 👀

@BettingThePitch

[Puls Quant @PulsQuant_PM]

@WorldCupMedia Model says 👇

🇫🇷 France 99.2% to qualify — but SEN at 63.0% makes this a trap
🇦🇷 Argentina 99.6% — WIN probability 26.2% vs market's ~10%
🇳🇴 Norway dark horse — Haaland + 8W/0L in qualifiers

Argentina is the pick. Every simulation says so.