Bitcoin Viking

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

@bourscheid You don't get it because you suck at math apparently

[Erik Voorhees @ErikVoorhees]

No, you don't get it.

He does not have $1 trillion sitting in cash, it is 99% stock in his companies.

To make that wealth liquid would mean selling all that stock which would swiftly destroy *both* the companies (Tesla, SpaceX, others) and the wealth. If he sold it all, he'd end up with maybe $100b max, several hundred thousand people would be out of work, the companies ruined and many of their suppliers also ruined.

Okay, but now Elon has $100b in cash, and can "solve the world's problems".

$100b divided by the world's 8 billion people is $12

If you were in charge, several of the most innovative industrial companies in the world would be destroyed, hundreds of thousands out of work, and space would again close to human civilization for another generation.

But everyone on earth could have one nice meal and you could revel in your altruism.

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

@ewarren You are fucking retarded STFU

[Brad Gerstner @altcap]

You are smarter than this Ro. Imagine if Bernie had taxed @elonmusk 100% on his PayPal capital gains. We would have no @Tesla or @SpaceX - none of those jobs or GDP. Who do you think allocated the capital better for society? He will already pay $100 B + in taxes - more than any human ever. I hope he donates some to kids via @TrumpAccounts to make every kid a shareholder in 🇺🇸 & continues investing all his heart, soul & money for the benefit of America & all humanity! 🇺🇸🚀🤍

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

5/ Group stage takeaway:

Don’t ask, “Can this team advance?”

Ask, “Is this team good enough to advance, cheap enough to burn, and unpopular enough to matter?”

That’s a very different list. Build your bracket https://t.co/IDHap8DkGl

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

1/ World Cup Survivor: The group stage feels like the easy part.

It is not.

You need all 4 teams to advance. In our sim, only ~50.3% of field entries survive the group stage.

Half the pool is dead before a knockout ball is kicked👇

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

4/ The 48-team format adds another wrinkle.

Third-place advancement means a team does not need to win the group or even finish second. The top 2 in each group advance, plus 8 of 12 third-place teams.

That makes certain mediocre teams more playable than people intuitively expect.

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

5/ The hidden skill is sequencing favorites.

You don’t just ask:
“Who wins?”
You ask:
“Who wins, when do I need them, how many other entries have them, and what future round am I sacrificing?”

That’s the whole game. Solve it at https://t.co/IDHap8DkGl

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

1/ The weirdest part of World Cup Survivor:

You often want to pick teams that win THIS round and lose NEXT round.

That sounds backwards until you remember the format: one-time team use.

Every team you burn today is a team you cannot use later.

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

4/ The same logic gets sharper in knockouts.

A Round of 32 pick with title equity is expensive.

A Round of 32 pick that can win one matchup and then become unusable because they probably lose next round is beautiful.

You’re harvesting one-round win probability.

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

@CoachBlewItNFL If the March Madness contests were any indication, this thing will be full of dead money.

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

1/ Splash Sports just released its World Cup Survivor contests.

The two big ones:
$2MM Guaranteed
$100 buy-in

$1MM High Stakes
$1,000 buy-in

If you’re used to NFL Survivor, your first instinct might be:
“Cool. Pick teams. Advance. Don’t overthink it.”

Do not do that without reading this first ↓

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

14/ This is exactly why I built the Survivor Lab World Cup Simulator.

It accounts for fixed matchups, third-place advancement paths, quadrant conflicts, and future team-use constraints.

https://t.co/IDHap8DkGl

[Bitcoin Viking @Punk4553]

13/ Some knockout matchups are already set.

Others depend on which third-place teams get through.

It’s important to understand those theoretical future matchups so you can avoid burning teams that end up blocking the same path.