Punting Form

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[Daniel O'Sullivan @TRBHorseRacing]

I 🙏 that Spring weather helps the Randwick track to race more evenly. It has been an off-fence paradise over the past six months, seemingly regardless of rail position.

Some stats on genuine market chances up to $10 SP since March 2024:

At the 400m mark
*⃣ Lanes 1-3: 200 runners for a 13.5% SR and -28% POT
*⃣ Lanes 4-8: 274 runners for a 21.5% SR and +11% POT

At the 200m mark
*⃣ Lanes 1-4: 129 runners for a 11.5% SR and -42% POT
*⃣ Lanes 5-11: 292 runners for a 21.9% SR and +17% POT

Of this group, 105 on-pace runners at the 800m mark (lead or within 1L) have won less often at 16.2% SR than those well off pace (3 to 5 lengths back) at 22.1% SR. That's unheard of.

The picture is no different if you include longer-priced horses. Presenting data on genuine market chances eliminates any debate that there might be some coincidence in the results due to where the better chances have raced.

For Punters, we can adjust, choose not to bet, etc. For owners, the opportunities to win are rare and having your chances notably impacted by consistently biased racing surfaces is a tough pill to swallow.

* Lanes data courtesy of @PuntingForm

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Punting Form Data from the Queen Elizabeth:

- Pride of Jenni -13.7 lengths faster than the Class Average to the 600m⏱️

- 4.4 lengths faster than the class avg to the 600m mark compared to her Australian Cup Run 🏎️

- Via Sistina 34.1 lengths off Pride of Jenni with 800m to go📝

[Daniel O'Sullivan @TRBHorseRacing]

NEW CAULFIELD HEATH TRACK - Reviewing this meeting, it was terrific to see how well the new track played.

The table below is one metric I use, looking at the top 5 horses in the market in each race, in this case separating them by <=3L from the lead at the 600m vs greater than 3L.

When there was speculation that the track may suit front runners, we saw actual vs expected wins, placings and beaten <2L at the finish were evenly spread. There was a good mix of early pace across races on the day.

If the surface can hold up to racing, we should be able to confidently bet.

Data thanks to @PuntingForm

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Punting Form Data from the Gold Rush and Damien Oliver's last ever ride:

- Munhamek -5.1 All Average Benchmark figure ⏱️
- Had the fastest L600 and L400m of the meeting 💪
- Was 7.2 lengths off the lead with 600m to go 🥇

https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Some of the top All Average Benchmark performers from the winners on Saturday 📈

Sign up for more sectional and benchmark data to help you review races going forward- https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R9 at Ascot for the Group 1 Gold Rush.

Our generated speed map has only a few runners fighting for the lead early in a wide open race on paper. It looks like a tricky map for Munhamek and Damien Oliver in his last-ever race.

https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R9 at Caulfield over 1400m.

Our generated speed map has a strung-out field with plenty of speed from Dubai Poet and Pal Doro.

Fully customise speed maps using dynamic data with Punting Form - https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R8 at Eagle Farm for the Gold Edition Plate.

Using Punting Form, see who are the likely leaders based on their Early Time Rankings and who are likely to be finishing the strongest off their Last Start L600m benchmark figure.

https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R7 at Eagle Farm over 2100m.

Our Neural Rated Prices have the field quite even with Sonofdec as the top-rated runner.

Punting Form subscribers can access rated prices for $59 a month for every track around the country - https://t.co/FGllFVJEbj

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R7 at Randwick over 1600m.

Our Top 4 performers tally has it quite even among the field with Aramayao just on top at big odds.

Check out all 25 dynamic categories to upgrade your form - https://t.co/FGllFVJEbj

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R7 at Caulfield over 1200m.

The market favourite Jambalaya brings fast last-start benchmarks from his debut win but many others can match him.

Sign up for more sectional and benchmark data- https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Some of the top All Average Benchmark performers from the winners on Saturday 📈

- Strong runs from Loch Eagle and Baby Rider at Randwick💪
- Dom to Shoot a good Group 1 Northerly winner⏱️

Sign up for more sectional and benchmark data- https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R8 at Ascot for the Group 1 Northerly Stakes over 1800m.

Our generated speed map isn't predicting many to fight for the lead and Zaaki should be able to find a spot comfortably on pace.

Fully customise speed maps with Punting Form - https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R4 coming up at Ascot for a competitive race over 2200m.

Using Punting Form, see who are the likely leaders based on their Early Time Rankings and who are likely to be finishing the strongest off their Last Start L600m benchmark figure.

https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R8 at Ballarat for the Cup over 2000m.

Just Folk and Young Werther look the two on speed runners from our generated speed map.

The market favourite Foxy Cleopatra could be well back in run.

Fully customise speed maps with Punting Form - https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R7 at Randwick for The Ingham over 1600m.

In a wide open market, Attractable on our generated speed map looks to be the one who will lead them. Detonator could be well back in the field in the straight.

Fully customise speed maps with Punting Form - https://t.co/FGllFVJEbj

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R6 at Randwick for the Santa Cup over 2000m.

Our Top 4 performers tally has it quite even among the field with Wicklow just on top.

Check out all 25 dynamic categories to upgrade your form - https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Northerly Stakes Day at Ascot with the Rail out +2m.

Check out our Barrier vs Historical Run Style Stats for the full meeting. Use this data to potentially help you find the advantaged runners today.

Sign up to Punting Form for more - https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

R5 at Randwick for the Nursey over 1000m with many first starters.

Of the raced runners, they bring similar benchmark figures into the race.

Sign up for more sectional and benchmark data- https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R

[Punting Form @PuntingForm]

Punting Form Data from the Winterbottom Stakes:

- Overpass -4.7 All Average Benchmark figure, 3.6 lengths slower than his Quokka victory 🏆
- Race was run 4.3 lengths slower than the class average to the 600m mark ⏱️

https://t.co/FGllFVKc0R