Christina

Navigating the Chokepoints

[Christina @PureReactionary]

This is a Paul Birch respecter account: https://t.co/sUHpq0iKqb

[Christina @PureReactionary]

@Schizointel

[Christina @PureReactionary]

@coolbeansranch It's the Year of Our Lord 2026. If you're 80, you're a Boomer.

[Analytica Camillus @AnalyticaCamil1]

AFRICOM after spending a year trying to tell anyone who’d listen that Al-Shabaab has anti-ship missiles now

[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

➡️ The Rostov oil products terminal was reportedly struck by drones yesterday evening, confirmed via NASA FIRMS satellite images, which show significant thermal activity at the site.👇 Port capacity is 50-75kbd, from which small river-sea tankers deliver products to other Black Sea ports for reloading onto larger vessels.
➡️ This port is associated with the 100kbd Novoshakhtinsk refinery, which is located about 75km to the north. This refinery has itself been struck at least 6 times over the last 15 months, the most recent being on Sept. 26.
➡️ Novoshakhtinsk is a relatively new and simple refinery, and heavily focused on exports. The typical product slate, in rough numbers, is ~50% residuals (heavy fuel oils, marine fuel oil), 30% diesel (straight run or lightly upgraded), and 20% naphtha/straight-run gasoline, although upgrade programs to produce Euro-5 gasoline for the local market are in the works.
➡️ The experience of the last year shows that ports are relatively resilient pieces of infrastructure (the ports of Novorossiysk, Primorsk, and Ust-Luga have been struck many times, and at most were taken offline for two weeks). More important for Russia's diesel export capacity - and everything is about diesel right now - is the status of the refinery itself. #OOTT #Russia #Diesel

[Vonbury Research @VonburyResearch]

Ukraine just hit Russia's Samara oil hub AGAIN.

That's 3 strikes on the same facility in eight days:
> Oct 2: Ukrainian forces strike the Samara oil infrastructure complex
> Oct 7: Another attack; Ukraine reports four RVS-50000 tanks destroyed
> Oct 10: Ukraine strikes Samara again

Samara is a major crude storage, pumping and blending hub for Russia's Urals export grade.

And at this point, Russia has to assume anything it repairs could just get bombed again.

#oott

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

The time to make the deal was 8 years ago!

If the EU had stood up to Trump and continued importing Iranian oil in 2018, we would not be in this current mess.

That would also have allowed a much stricter embargo of Russian energy in the first year after the invasion of Ukraine.

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Ukrainian drones struck the Yug Rusi petroleum-products terminal in Rostov-on-Don Oct 10 triggering multiple explosions and a substantial fire. #OOTT

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Aaand... it's happening.

German government speaker Stefan Kornelius announces that Germany will stick to sanctions against Russia, despite the US - Russia deal.

In a way, it makes sense:

Germany's energy crisis is now much more mitigated, because the US will be friendly enough to supply Germany with 100% marked up Russian Diesel. Our American friends will do everything they can to empower Germany to uphold sanctions!

I wonder if we can build a Diesel pipeline (lol) from Russia to Germany if it is in fact an American pipeline? That should be ok and out of the scope of sanctions?

[Rasmus Jarlov @RasmusJarlov]

It is time for the EU to make an oil deal with Iran.

[The Wolf ❌ @TheBarrenNorth]

@CRUDEOIL231 Meanwhile, over night...
https://t.co/457EkUW9rV

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

Everyone is aware that the US is a significant net exporter of diesel already and Europe is a major net importer of diesel so one way or another this Russian diesel deal people are furious about, the Russian diesel ends up in Europe. Right? Right?

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

Since the "experts" are experting, while we cannot say for certain, there is a near zero probability the diesel feedstock will actually hit US shores. The US has not imported diesel feedstock from Russia since April 2022. Europe however has historically imported both feedstock and finished diesel from Russia. It was only this year that Europe stopped importing diesel made outside of Russia from Russian sources. Even through the end of 2023, European refiners were using Russian crude to make diesel. There is almost no chance Russian crude, and definitely not in any material amount, will end up in the US for a variety of reasons. This deal is about Europe

[Christina @PureReactionary]

@EwanMacKenna Winning

[Christina @PureReactionary]

@bunsha_iv @imetatronink The Azeris are already on board.

[Will Schryver @imetatronink]

Very few people realize that Russia and Iran share a de facto maritime border, and that there is robust trade exchange via the Caspian Sea.

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

Just a gentle reminder, the US is a significant net exporter of diesel while Europe is a significant importer of diesel. Russian diesel will not be consumed in the US

[John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad]

Why are we importing ANY petroleum products?

BUILD MORE DIESEL REFINERIES AND 🇺🇸 SHIPS TO MOVE IT

This is a military priority. If Cali and Mass refuse then build DoW refineries on federal land.

If Delta Airlines can own and run a refinery then the USAF can too.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

#EthiopiaWatch🇪🇹: Eritrean troops have entered Ethiopia. Ethiopia warns it will respond in "self-defence."

THE WINDS OF WAR (Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Tigray, and Ethiopia) ON THE HORN OF AFRICA ARE SWIRLING.

[Martin Plaut @martinplaut]

US Embassy in Eritrea warns Americans in Eritrea to “Have evacuation plans that do not rely on U.S. Government assistance.”

https://t.co/b2CQp2DtwL

[Christina @PureReactionary]

@cpcriser @Zenfrog4 According to this article they rebranded in 2023 as "Funny Farm" https://t.co/6ieR4EJgVy