Lotus Morning Dew

A tiny bird landed nearby and softly chirped, "Even the smallest wings can carry dreams farther than fear ever could

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

The sea breeze feels so gentle

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@KobeissiLetter Less than 1% from a new all-time high. Momentum looks strong, but volatility usually picks up around these levels

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@starrebels1 I filled my tank before the gas price went up, and you?

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@CarolWilso44745 It seems you often follow financial news. What are your thoughts on this?

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

The joy of fishing is never just about how big the fish is

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

The interesting part is how weak the link between inflation and stock returns really is. Growth still tends to drive the bigger picture

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US stocks are well positioned for inflation.

In 2025, the S&P 500 posted a +14.76% inflation-adjusted return, with inflation running at +2.70% for the year.

This followed real returns of +21.47% in 2024 and +22.11% in 2023.

Over the last 20 years, the largest real return was in 2013, at +30.42%, when inflation was just +1.50%.

During this period, the S&P 500 failed to beat inflation in only 4 years: 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2022.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 companies are projected to report +23% YoY earnings growth in Q3, supporting continued positive real returns even as inflation remains above 3%.

Stocks have historically been one of the best hedges against inflation.

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

The market looks calm, but capital is waiting for direction. Low volatility often signals the next move is brewing

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The market is consolidating before its next big move.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500’s intraday trading range was just 0.46%, near its lowest since December.

For most of this month, the index’s intraday trading range has not exceeded 0.75%.

Since the beginning of the month, this indicator has surpassed 1.00% in only 2 sessions, on August 3rd and August 4th.

This makes August the least volatile month so far in 2026, based on this metric.

Meanwhile, the volatility index, $VIX, is trading below 17 points for the 3rd consecutive week, the longest such streak since the final 2 weeks of 2025 and the first week of this year.

Market volatility has been historically low this month.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Meta stock, $META, surges over +5% after the company agrees to pay up to $16.7 billion to settle claims that Facebook and Instagram harmed children.

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

Walk your own path, enjoy the views you love, and make every ordinary day feel a little better

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

Dipping it in black salt and garnishing it with orange slices creates a truly unique flavor

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

Heavily investing in storage and energy, AI infrastructure is truly daring to face obstacles

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

This is what Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness portfolio looked like as of the end of Q2 BEFORE THE HEDGE FUND COLLAPSED

This is roughly what Ken Griffin and Citadel Securities bought

SanDisk $SNDK: 28.0%, $5.7B
Micron $MU: 27.5%, $5.6B
Bloom Energy $BE: 9.6%, $1.9B (includes $44M in calls)
TSMC $TSM: 6.4%, $1.3B (includes $24M in calls)
Nebius $NBIS: 6.1%, $1.2B
CoreWeave $CRWV: 3.7%, $745M
Core Scientific $CORZ: 3.3%, $670M
Other (STMicroelectronics, IREN, Applied Digital, Infosys, includes a $5M put): 15.4%, $3.1B

Credit to my Leverage Shares partners below for the graphic

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Walmart stock, $WMT, falls over -9% in its biggest daily drop since 2022 after reporting weaker than expected earnings on a slowdown in consumer spending.

The stock erased -$80 billion in market cap today.

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

It turns out that no one was dumping shares, the major players were all holding onto their positions

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is unprecedented:

2026 is currently on track to become the only calendar year in at least 30 years with zero 80%+ NYSE downside-volume days.

These are days when at least 80% of NYSE trading volume comes from declining stocks, signaling unusually broad-based selling pressure.

By comparison, 2008 had 49 such days during the Financial Crisis, versus 33 during the 2022 bear market and just 9 last year.

Meanwhile, the average since 1997 is 21 such trading days, with no calendar year ever recording fewer than 5.

In other words, broad-based selling pressure has been almost nonexistent so far in 2026.

The market is more resilient than ever.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Slowly and steadily, the 30-year US Treasury yield is heading toward 5.30%, a level the economy -- and the housing market in particular-- has not seen in decades.
(Bloomberg chart below.)
#economy #housing #markets #bonds

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@KobeissiLetter It seems everyone is saving cash to hedge against risks

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The longest duration bond ETF is now down 63% from its peak in March 2020.

How is that possible?

The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 5.3% today.

Long duration + Rising interest rates from all-time low levels = Pain

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@AndrewHiesinger The truth behind the drop below 10% is that big money is playing a game

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@StockMKTNewz Trading options on weekends? They're really cutting off our livelihood

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

THIS HAS MARKED EVERY MAJOR BUYING & SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE 1990

Dot-Com Crash.
Global Financial Crisis.
COVID Crash.
2022 Bear Market.
2025 Tariff Selloff.

The $VIX is Wall Street’s fear gauge.

If you trade $SPY or $QQQ, you need to understand it.

VIX below 20: TRIM / REDUCE RISK
VIX 20–30: HOLD
VIX 30–40: START BUYING
VIX above 40: BUY THE PANIC

RIGHT NOW: VIX 14.25

We’re in the low-volatility zone.

Let winners run, but don’t chase. Trim extended positions and keep cash ready for the next volatility spike.

Buy when others are fearful. Sell when they are greedy.

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

@KobeissiLetter They're frantically issuing short term debt to stay afloat, it's unsettling to watch

[Lotus Morning Dew @Qenaltvn]

$LINK is showing the breakout $BTC hasn’t delivered yet
LINK has cleared its post-crash range with solid follow-through, while Bitcoin is still struggling near the top of its range