Few more thoughts. I strongly advise everyone to read this post in full, especially right now when everyone is posting their performance charts again, AI names are making 10x in months and retail euphoria is visible everywhere you look. And it looks like a lot of big private companies are willing to use this window of opportunity to offer their shares.
Making a lot of money very fast is genuinely bad for your mental health, because the version of you that made the money is hormonally and psychologically different from the version that needs to hold it, which is what John Coates (quoted in the post) spent years documenting at Cambridge after his own career on a trading desk, finding that extended winning streaks raise testosterone and lower cortisol in ways that systematically push traders into bigger and dumber positions right at the moment they feel most invincible (you probably been there yourself or for sure know someone from Fintwit who has). The euphoria is not a character flaw, it is a measurable chemical state, and almost nobody recognizes it from the inside.
The second thought is that evolution beats revolution in this game, which sounds boring until you actually understand the math, and the best framing of why comes from Kahneman and Tversky rather than from any investor, because their work on loss aversion (the empirical finding that losses hurt roughly twice as much as equivalent gains feel good) explains why a 50% drawdown is not just mathematically harder to recover from than the upside that preceded it, it is also psychologically catastrophic in a way that almost always leads to abandoning the process at exactly the wrong moment when System 1 thinking takes over and the patient, boring approach feels like leaving money on the table. Which is why rule number one is simply DO NOT LOSE, meaning cut your losses fast and without ego the moment your thesis is violated, because preserving capital is the only way you stay in the game long enough for compounding to do its work.
The operational version of the same idea is Moneyball, which is my favorite movie and probably the most underrated investing book ever written even though it is technically about baseball, because Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta did not win by finding one great hitter, they won by systematically exploiting small repeatable edges across hundreds of decisions and refusing to swing for the fences on any individual call, which is exactly the discipline that almost everyone abandons during a euphoric run when in reality it is the entire game.
William O'Neil studied the biggest winning stocks of the last 100 years.
Before each one exploded, it formed one of just 8 shapes on the chart.
Learn to recognise these 8, and you stop guessing — you start seeing what the market is quietly telling you ↓
$GOOGL TTN Summary Earnings Call: AI monetization breadth is improving: subscriptions hit 350M paid subs, with the strongest-ever quarter for consumer AI plans driven mainly by the Gemini app, suggesting consumer willingness to pay for premium AI is building faster than before. (Alphabet Inc)
- Search commentary was notably constructive: management said AI is driving usage, queries are at an all-time high, AI Overviews are contributing to overall search growth, and AI Mode is seeing strong global user/usage growth — a useful signal that generative AI is expanding engagement rather than cannibalizing it.
- Google Cloud demand accelerated again on AI, with revenue up 63% and backlog nearly doubling q/q to over $460B; management framed this as evidence that AI infrastructure and enterprise AI demand remain very strong into coming quarters.
- Management highlighted improving AI unit economics as new features roll out: since upgrading AI Overviews and AI Mode to Gemini 3, the cost of core AI responses is down more than 30%, helping offset investor concerns that heavier AI usage could pressure margins.
- Search efficiency also continues to improve despite more AI on the results page; latency is down more than 35% over five years, which supports the case that Google can add richer AI experiences without a proportionate increase in cost or degradation in user experience.
- AI infrastructure expansion remains aggressive: Alphabet is broadening its compute portfolio with next-gen TPUs plus NVIDIA Blackwell/Hopper and future Vera Rubin NVL72 instances, signaling continued heavy AI capex and an effort to stay ahead of enterprise training/inference demand.
- Model/platform usage is still inflecting higher: first-party models are now processing over 16B tokens per minute via direct customer API use, up from 10B last quarter, pointing to very strong recent developer/customer consumption trends.
- Management’s tone on upcoming product cadence was upbeat, flagging more AI announcements around May events (I/O, Brandcast, GML) and describing internal “agentic workflows” as already improving engineering velocity, implying faster product iteration through the rest of 2026.
(More at https://t.co/zGxRSGIzFV)
I asked @Deepvue AI to Identify specific leading themes and the strongest stocks within them
Semiconductor Equipment & Test
Fab tools, wafer processing, and test gear — critical for chip production ramps. Granular subset surging on AI capacity builds.
- $ACLS, $ACMR, $AEIS, $COHU, $EXTR, $ICHR, $KLIC, $LITE, $ONTO, $TER, $UCTT.
Semiconductor Memory & Storage
DRAM, NAND, SSD makers riding data center/AI storage demand. Distinct from logic/design, these lead on hyperscaler capex.
- $SNDK, $MU, $STX, $WDC.
Analog & Power Semis
Power management, sensors, and analog chips for EVs, servers, industrial. Steady growers in Leaders for supply chain strength.
- $ADEA, $ADI, $ALGM, $AOSL, $AXTI, $POWI, $VSH.
Semiconductor Design & IP
Chip architecture, EDA, and custom silicon — AI accelerator core. High-margin plays with software-like growth.
- $ALAB, $ARM, $CRDO, $MPWR, $MRVL, $SITM.
Oil Refiners
Downstream processors crushing margins on wide crack spreads. Pure-play energy momentum without exploration risk.
- $DINO, $MPC, $PARR, $PBF, $VLO.
Oil Producers & E&Ps
Upstream drillers with low-cost barrels — benefiting from OPEC cuts and geopolitics.
- $APA, $MUR, $OXY.
Oil Tankers & Midstream
Shipping and pipelines cashing in on global trade flows. High dividend yields plus RS leaders.
- $DHT, $FRO, $INSW, $STNG, $DTM, $AROC.
Power Generation & Storage
Fuel cells, batteries, and grid-scale power for AI's massive electricity needs. Explosive theme tied to semis.
- $AMPX, $AMSC, $BE, $EOSE, $LION.
Steel & Metals Mining
Cyclical commodity leaders on infra/China rebound. Volume/price action standout.
- CLF, CRS, KALU, NUE, STLD, SSRM.
Biotech Specialties
CNS/neuro, gene editing, oncology — Phase 2/3 catalysts driving pops.
- ANAB, AXSM, BEAM, GKOS, KNSA, TVTX.
Electrical Infra Builders
Wiring, poles, and construction for grid upgrades/power lines. Direct AI power play.
- CECO, DY, MYRG, PWR, WCC.
Bitcoin Miners
Crypto hash rate leaders with cheap power/energy overlap. Volatility kings in Leaders.
- CIFR, CLSK, CORZ, HUT, IREN, RIOT, WULF.
Deepvue Leaders breaks into these niches via RS + fundamentals — semis sub-themes alone are ~50 stocks, validating granular focus. Theme Tracker in Deepvue ranks their 1M strength for priority.
During the 2026 correction, I stayed cautious.
In late March, I explained why the market was nearing a turning point — and which sectors were most likely to lead the rebound.
Many of those groups went on to surge, including space and AI hardware-related names. Some stocks rose 50% to 100% in less than a month, including $FLY, $AEHR and $MRVL. JLA members saw it unfold in real time.
For a limited time, I’m sharing selected JLA reports so you can see how I actually analyze the market.
👇 Get access here:
https://t.co/mBFnxclDrP
I just posted the webinar I did on Finding Market Leaders with @Deepvue
I shared the 7 best screens to use and how to save time finding the best opportunities each week
- This includes my favorite pullback screen 😉
Retweet! 👇
https://t.co/RWD8Wfu6HJ
281% ATR HOD with a close of 260% ATR. An OEL stick indeed!
The Golden Dome theme, space theme, and recent earnings gap up. I guess the Artemis II mission was another catalyst to just bring eyes back onto the group.
This was a name many missed because it came public right as the group started correcting early February after the strong January run. Just a neglected name.
If it wasn't for TM Data Systems Sentinel database I probably wouldn't have seen it. One of our algos flagged the even on the gap up. I then started to research it and saw the fundamentals on it were on the come up. I thought I had a little more time to build it out fuller, but only got it to 7.5% aum.
Wrote a new rule around it today with that 4/1 Wick Set up + OEL aka WOEL.
I had noted last night there are only a handful of names on the Quarterly OEL scan. YSS happens to be one of them. And it is still an inside quarter.
The bulk of the feedback to me today on X about it was more about "thank you I didn't know about this one." So it would seem that today was a bit of a discovery phase move acceleration.
Closing above the Ipo price of 34 today is a welcome surprise. I added to it at 29 today. Bumped my cost up from 22.17 to 24.03.
Listened to this the other day :
https://t.co/HswRilxN8F
Have yet to listen to the conference call as I thought I had a little more time, but will do that later.
I think I posted this research prompt with my first buy on it weeks back.
https://t.co/8IEN3RJ5NA
Results for USIC by year. 2020 was one for the record books.
Appreciate how hard this game is. Just being profitable is difficult. I have spoken to traders who were profitable and chose not to report but they probably make up a small # of the traders who enter. Even if you bump the numbers up by a few %, on average only ~20% report being profitable for any year.
The war is about to end.
step by step.
U.S. officials are openly blaming/distancing from Israel's recent strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure (fuel storage and refineries near Tehran hit in the last few days).
Leaks and statements (including Energy Secretary Chris Wright) make clear no U.S. plans to target Iran's oil sector, with Trump framing it as Israel's moves amid "Operation Epic Fury" successes, while U.S. gas prices spike ahead of midterms.
-> distancing from the war and creating exit
The new Iranian leader was appointed right now: The Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei (56, hardliner with deep IRGC ties) as Supreme Leader on March 8.
This comes amid fuel shortages/blackouts from the oil hits, with regime pushing IRGC loyalty to hold things together under the new leader.
-> Trump openly said the Israeli strike on the oil is pushing Iranians back to the regime. This will likely be twisted into the leader being acceptable due to Israel.
The target has shifted from total destruction to destroying the nuclear capacities: Early strikes hit command, air defenses, navy, missiles, and oil. Recent ones (last 48-72 hours) focused on nuclear, confirmed hits on covert Minzadehei weapons site, Natanz entrances, Isfahan structures, and SPND/Mojdeh labs, to neuter breakout potential.
-> Target narrowed to Nuclear, attacks going straight for them. This will be the propaganda “win”, shifting back to the original plan and reminding people of the successful summer attack. We’ll use the attacks over the last week and reframe them as a win for the safety of the Golf and weakening the regime.
France is repositioning its navy (Charles de Gaulle carrier group to Mediterranean, plus European/UK backing) to support secure shipping lanes amid Hormuz threats. Iran says the strait is open but closed to U.S./Israeli-linked ships, others pass at risk, with traffic near standstill and only handfuls crossing recently.
-> Iran indicated they would let ships through and the president apologized to the Golf countries. The world is getting ready for the straight to reopen.
All of this is pointing towards one thing.
Oil is getting out of control (exports disrupted, prices surging, Hormuz chaos), Trump knows he can’t get involved in a major/prolonged war right into midterms, he's signaled Iran is already calling for a deal ("a bit late") and expects wrap-up in weeks.
My best guess:
We (U.S.) secure or destroy all remaining nuclear storage, enrichment paths, and facilities, declare the program crippled "for the foreseeable future or destroyed", then let Israel enforce it stays gone (overflights, strikes on reconstitution) even as we promise a full U.S.-brokered ceasefire.
For this Israel saves face and full blame as the exit is built.
Iran keeps its regime (now Mojtaba + IRGC-hardened) but loses the bomb option, with conditional sanctions relief for compliance. Trump claims victory, no boots, no endless war, without midterm damage.
Keep in mind the naval and air superiority as well as the decreasing amount of available drones and missiles (both normal and ballistic) which put Iran under major pressure.
The pieces are aligning fast, driven by oil pain, leadership change, and nuclear "mission accomplished" optics.
Escalation risks linger (Iranian missiles, Gulf threats), but endgame pressure is mounting.
This scenario presents Israel with the war mission they require to sustain Bibi’s trajectory, while Trump secures a symbolic victory, and Iran manages to salvage its reputation and retain the IRGC as its leadership.
However, I genuinely hope that all parties involved are rational actors in this situation.
My primary concern is Israel’s potential to escalate the conflict and manipulate the US in this matter. It is undeniable that Israel played a significant role in this escalation.
There is a quick out, will they take it?
2/4 Recap & Watchlist video: Toilet Paper versus Tech
- There might have been 30 stocks on my radar down 10-20% today ranging from $AMD $RDDT $ASTS $RKLB to $ONDS $PLTR $KTOS and $BE. Carnage everywhere!
- $IYT transports are seeing massive accumulation lead by $XPO $ODFL
- $XLP lead by $WMY $PG $KO $PM and $PEP are seeing very strong rotation
- $XLI another leading group with $DE $CMI in steady trends.
- Software and Semis continue to get hammered but it was finally a day when $IGV outperformed $SMH. I actually think that's a good pair trade going forward. Long $IGV vs short $SMH even though not something I think I would participate in.
- $XLE sitting at decade highs. $XOM $CVX $VLO $HAL $SLB I think will continue to be big winners all year.
- $BTC $ETH hitting new lows once again and all on a day when $MCD is hitting new highs. The market has one funny sense of humor!
- Stay nimble and don't be stubborn. The market is showing you clear as day where money is going and where money is leaving.
Everyone loves to buy breakouts but buying pullbacks is the cheat code.
Look at the moves we’ve seen in $AVAV $KTOS $RKLB $ASTS $BE $CRWV and many other names after they pulled back to key levels, vertical.
Resistance to support flips + double bottoms across all of these names.