FPL Quant

Quantitative FPL predictor. Treating FPL like the stock market.
Hand-built by a specialist in Computational Modelling.
Not a machine learning model!

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Thinking of creating your own FPL model?
I spent a summer building one. Nine seasons of data, a component-wise expected-points model, and a portfolio optimiser that treats the crowd as a benchmark.
Here's everything I got wrong first, so you don't have to. 🧵

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Top 10 Expected Points over the next 5 GWs
#WC9 #GW9 #FPL #FH #FH9

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Top Ten Expected Points for #GW9
Can you guess who the missing players are?

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to keep a Clean Sheet in #GW9 #FPL

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to hit #DEFCON in #GW9 #FPL

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to Return in #GW9 #FPL

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Cherki has low minutes due to his low(ish) xStart and high rotation in recent games

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to Assist in #GW9 #FPL

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Go away McBurnie, why does my model think you're prime Michail Antonio

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Players most likely to score in #GW9.
#FPL
Thoughts on the new #Rebrand?
Can McBurnie please stop haunting me

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Before anyone states that I conveniently captained Gabriel, the model states that he is the best captain who played this week and is in this team:👇
https://t.co/MGOLMPfTXI

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Top 10 Expected Points This Week
#ExpectedPoints #GW8

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

What a week to catch the top 10k this was: Here's my team I highlighted earlier in the week for those who really needed to catch up: it scored 90 Points😱

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Here's an extra fun one, a non-template team which consists of players with under 20% ownership in the top 10k
#fpl #fplfun #nontemplate #wildcard #WC8

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Another strong #fpl week for my DifferentialXI: 63 points with a weak captaincy choice

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@LetsTalk_FPL I have also been questioning this, since this tweet they have had back to back blanks for their big three.

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Are Chelsea riding their luck?

xG measures the chances a player gets. In 17,525 PL attacker appearances, players who beat their xG by 2-3 goals over six games scored 0.84/90 in that run, then 0.33/90 the next match, close to their 0.39 xG rate.
Chelsea: 15 goals from 8.5 xG 😬👇

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@rotygg @OfficialFPL Follow for more insightful predictions!

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@OfficialFPL Here's who to Captain:
https://t.co/ERaolmR1Se

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to #Return

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@OfficialFPL Here's a Saka and DCL free draft for those scrambling to replace him
https://t.co/SA8aVO5J6f

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Calvert-Lewin Injury-Adjusted GW8 Wildcard
#FPL #WC8 #FH8 #GW8

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Calvert-Lewin Injury-Adjusted GW8 Wildcard
#FPL #WC8 #FH8 #GW8

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@OfficialFPL Calvert-Lewin Injured #TimeForAReRun

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@OfficialFPL Most Likely players to return:
Potential Captain Material?
https://t.co/ERaolmQu2G

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Most Likely to #Return

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

@OfficialFPL Here's a list of the top captain choices this week:
https://t.co/MGOLMPgrNg

[FPL Quant @QuantFPL]

Top 10 Expected Points This Week
#ExpectedPoints #GW8